Concord
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #57
New Haven Semi-State Rank #16
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #5
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #5
Most Likely Finish 12th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Elkhart Early Bird Invitational NorthWood Invitational Marion Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC/NLC Conference Northern Lakes Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
Date 8/13 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21
Team Rating 602 566 388 601 570 662 557 570 609 596 644
Team Adjusted Rating 549 388 581 570 628 557 570 609 596 644
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Elkhart Early Bird Invitational NorthWood Invitational Marion Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC/NLC Conference Northern Lakes Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
151  Luke Owings 10 16:48 16:43 16:40 16:50 17:00 16:50 16:56 16:50 16:42 16:51 16:45
310  Luke Shoemaker 11 17:11 16:49 16:49 16:50 17:02 16:56 17:14 17:13 17:37 17:31 17:43
635  Noah Wright 10 17:47 18:07 17:47 18:01 18:02 18:20 17:36 17:47 17:41 17:40 17:36
713  David Arvidson 12 17:54 18:18 18:23 17:55 17:45 17:43 17:34 17:52 18:00
714  Leandro Ortiz 10 17:54 18:14 17:48 17:32 18:20 18:40 17:41 18:49 17:36 18:00
729  Nikolas Schraw 12 17:56 17:43 17:41 17:41 17:52 17:31 17:42 18:03 18:37 18:44
764  Jose Sosa 12 17:58 17:40 18:11
1,073  Gama Montel 11 18:21 18:39 18:40 18:20 18:40 18:07 18:05 18:19 18:22 18:09
1,138  Bryce Cook 9 18:26 18:34 18:07 18:09 18:32 19:12
1,218  Aaron Lopez 12 18:30 18:55 18:29 18:20 18:12 19:06
William Nicoson 9 19:11 19:20 19:33 19:21 19:11 19:12 18:43 19:09
Kevin Cruz 9 19:21 19:44 19:56 18:59 20:11 19:02 19:07
Juan Delgado 11 19:44 20:25 19:47 19:44 19:58 19:57 19:42 18:47




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 100% 12.7 336 0.2 0.5 1.5 5.3 9.9 13.9 16.4 15.0 13.5 11.1 8.8 3.8 0.4 0.1
Regionals 100% 5.1 131 11.9 16.4 18.3 12.3 12.3 10.5 11.0 7.5
Sectionals 100% 3.7 97 11.3 14.7 16.9 20.0 20.9 16.2 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Owings 9.1% 93.8 9.1% 9.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Owings 100% 38.8 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.4 98.0%
Luke Shoemaker 100% 72.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 60.3%
Noah Wright 100% 121.0 0.6%
David Arvidson 100% 129.4 0.1%
Leandro Ortiz 100% 129.7 0.2%
Nikolas Schraw 100% 131.7 0.1%
Gama Montel 100% 154.5 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Owings 100% 8.7 0.9 5.4 5.9 5.3 7.3 6.4 7.3 6.8 6.7 7.5 6.5 6.2 6.3 4.2 5.0 3.1 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Luke Shoemaker 100% 20.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.1 3.1 2.4 4.1 5.1 6.2 7.4 7.7 7.1 6.1 6.4 6.5 5.7 5.6 100.0%
Noah Wright 100% 40.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 93.6%
David Arvidson 100% 45.4 0.1 0.1 85.3%
Leandro Ortiz 100% 45.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 84.8%
Nikolas Schraw 100% 46.4 0.1 81.6%
Gama Montel 100% 63.4 19.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Owings 4.2 9.8 12.4 12.9 12.9 12.2 10.5 8.4 7.6 5.2 2.5 2.7 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.2
Luke Shoemaker 11.7 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.6 5.7 7.3 8.5 9.5 11.0 10.4 9.5 7.9 7.3 3.6 4.0 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Noah Wright 24.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.6 3.2 4.1 6.1 7.5 7.1 8.1 7.3 7.8
David Arvidson 28.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.6 4.2 4.7 5.4 7.1
Leandro Ortiz 28.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 1.9 2.9 5.3 5.8 6.5
Nikolas Schraw 29.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.5 3.4 4.8 5.9
Gama Montel 40.9 0.1