Lowell
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #7
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #1
Crown Point Regional Rank #1
Crown Point Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 5th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.2%
Top 5 at State Finals 27.9%
Top 10 at State Finals 83.3%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Dave Walker Invitational Mike Kuharic Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Hobart Invitational Northwest Crossroads Conference Crown Point Sectional Crown Point Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/19 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/26 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 229 214 NEI 236 251 NEI 257 222 321 210 295
Team Adjusted Rating 214 NEI 236 251 NEI 257 222 251 210 295
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Dave Walker Invitational Mike Kuharic Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Hobart Invitational Northwest Crossroads Conference Crown Point Sectional Crown Point Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Alec Fleming 12 15:42 15:31 NEI 15:30 15:41 15:54 15:52 15:58 15:37 17:15
50  Caleb Chapman 12 16:16 16:02 NEI 16:11 16:00 16:15 16:18 16:25 16:32
53  Gabriel Sanchez 10 16:17 16:16 NEI 16:46 16:29 16:33 16:07 16:21 16:05 16:16
157  Dustin Hudak 11 16:48 16:53 NEI 16:42 16:51 16:54 17:10 17:01 16:44 16:41
251  Fernando Rosas 12 17:03 17:02 NEI 16:57 17:24 17:02 16:59 17:02 17:26 16:56
275  Nikoles Mulligan 12 17:05 17:17 NEI 17:02 17:20 17:20 16:51 17:19 17:17 16:58
285  Jacob Durr 10 17:07 17:44 NEI 16:56 17:22 17:04 17:08 16:55 17:08
675  Alexander Huseman 11 17:50 17:17 NEI 17:26 17:53 17:46 18:11
1,322  Elijah Love 11 18:38 18:44 NEI 18:44
1,392  Michael Mayer 11 18:44 NEI 18:57 18:36
1,418  Nick Nuccio 10 18:45 NEI 18:45 18:45
1,443  Michael Flannery 11 18:47 NEI 18:59 NEI 18:31
1,495  Adam Edwards 11 18:51 18:32 NEI 19:11 18:35 19:58
1,559  Julian Childress 11 18:54 NEI 19:17 NEI 18:39
Colin Arndt 11 19:04 NEI 19:22 NEI 19:07
Malachi Freeman 10 19:12 NEI 19:21 NEI 19:18




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 7.6 256 0.2 1.9 4.2 7.9 13.8 13.4 13.1 12.1 9.4 7.5 4.8 4.7 2.5 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 1.9 93 37.6 45.7 12.1 3.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.1 35 87.6 12.4
Sectionals 100% 1.1 28 86.4 13.7



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alec Fleming 100% 9.6 1.7 4.3 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.5 4.5 5.3 5.6 5.1 5.2 3.8 3.3 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 100.0%
Caleb Chapman 100% 49.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 91.8%
Gabriel Sanchez 100% 51.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.9 89.2%
Dustin Hudak 100% 120.2 10.5%
Fernando Rosas 100% 148.9 0.4%
Nikoles Mulligan 100% 153.1 0.4%
Jacob Durr 100% 156.0 0.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alec Fleming 100% 1.3 42.0 30.4 15.2 7.3 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 100.0%
Caleb Chapman 100% 10.5 0.2 1.6 3.4 4.7 6.4 8.3 7.9 7.2 6.9 7.4 6.2 5.5 6.3 4.7 3.7 4.0 3.2 2.6 2.0 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 100.0%
Gabriel Sanchez 100% 10.6 0.1 1.5 2.4 5.7 6.0 7.8 8.2 6.5 8.6 6.3 6.6 5.8 5.1 3.7 3.1 4.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.1 1.1 100.0%
Dustin Hudak 100% 33.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.7 100.0%
Fernando Rosas 100% 50.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 100.0%
Nikoles Mulligan 100% 54.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Jacob Durr 100% 56.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alec Fleming 100% 1.0 97.2 2.4 0.5 100.0%
Caleb Chapman 100% 3.4 22.0 21.4 16.6 13.9 10.2 6.8 4.6 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
Gabriel Sanchez 100% 3.6 18.5 21.3 16.1 13.5 11.7 7.1 6.0 3.1 2.5 0.4 100.0%
Dustin Hudak 100% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.1 5.4 8.2 14.7 23.7 21.4 9.5 5.2 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Fernando Rosas 100% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 3.9 8.6 15.2 14.6 12.6 10.6 8.2 6.6 4.7 4.0 2.7 2.3 1.4 1.2 0.6 100.0%
Nikoles Mulligan 100% 15.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 6.4 10.6 14.3 12.0 11.0 8.4 6.5 6.3 5.4 5.7 3.9 2.4 1.6 0.8 100.0%
Jacob Durr 100% 15.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 3.9 8.4 11.1 14.3 11.5 9.8 9.0 6.8 6.3 4.7 3.9 2.5 2.0 1.6 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alec Fleming 1.0 97.0 2.5 0.5 0.1
Caleb Chapman 3.2 23.0 24.0 20.3 16.6 10.8 4.7 0.7
Gabriel Sanchez 3.2 20.8 24.4 19.8 15.9 12.7 5.7 0.9 0.1
Dustin Hudak 8.0 0.5 1.6 4.4 12.1 32.5 31.6 10.0 3.3 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.1
Fernando Rosas 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.7 10.7 20.4 21.1 13.0 11.3 8.4 5.1 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.1
Nikoles Mulligan 11.5 0.1 0.5 2.2 7.2 15.9 16.7 16.9 15.8 8.2 7.8 5.2 2.9 0.9 0.1
Jacob Durr 11.8 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.3 12.6 16.9 19.5 12.2 10.9 8.9 7.4 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.1