Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2019 - 2020 - 2021
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State Rank #10
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 10th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 3.8%
Top 10 at State Finals 49.8%
Advance to State Finals 99.8%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational
Date 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19
Team Rating 241 211 283 260 258 236
Team Adjusted Rating 211 246 255 258 236
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational
19  Karsten Schlegel 11 15:55 15:53 15:55 15:55 15:57 16:04
77  Gabriel Connelly 11 16:26 16:06 16:21 16:58 16:37 16:15
88  Daniel Adair 11 16:30 16:46 16:41 16:06 16:36 16:28
110  Luke Bentz 12 16:37 16:23 16:44 16:42 16:44
204  Tyler Strothman 12 16:57 17:04 16:53
234  Nathan Pennekamp 12 17:02 17:01 17:03 17:02 16:51 17:06
284  Zac Shaw 11 17:09 16:49 17:06 17:57 16:57 17:15
343  Charlie Fikes 11 17:19 17:19 17:24 17:08
364  Ben Bentz 9 17:22 17:14 17:21 17:12 17:56
453  Peter Allison 11 17:33 17:18 17:41 17:29 17:34 17:36
643  Kevin Zehr 10 17:55 17:52 18:09 17:48
1,144  Vaughn Hendrickson 9 18:40 19:10 18:27 18:35
1,346  Nick Spielman 9 18:56 19:10 18:44 18:59
Max Adair 9 19:05 19:42 18:55 18:55




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 99.8% 10.6 299 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.6 4.2 8.7 9.5 11.4 12.3 12.0 12.2 9.7 6.4 3.7 2.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 3.0 116 1.4 11.0 78.7 6.3 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.0 52 96.4 3.3 0.4
Sectionals 100% 1.0 39 95.3 4.6 0.2



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 100% 21.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.4 2.3 3.2 3.5 2.9 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.0 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.8 3.0 100.0% 99.8%
Gabriel Connelly 99.8% 77.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0% 61.1%
Daniel Adair 99.8% 85.8 0.1 0.1 0.0% 49.0%
Luke Bentz 99.8% 102.3 0.0% 28.5%
Tyler Strothman 99.8% 143.6 0.0% 0.9%
Nathan Pennekamp 99.8% 151.1 0.0% 0.4%
Zac Shaw 99.8% 162.1 0.0% 0.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 100% 4.9 0.5 17.1 11.7 10.7 10.8 9.4 7.3 6.4 4.5 5.3 3.7 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Gabriel Connelly 100% 21.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.3 3.4 3.4 4.3 4.6 6.2 4.8 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.8 4.3 3.6 100.0%
Daniel Adair 100% 24.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.9 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.6 4.5 4.7 4.6 5.1 5.0 4.4 5.0 99.9%
Luke Bentz 100% 30.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.7 1.9 2.6 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.3 3.7 99.2%
Tyler Strothman 100% 53.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 78.9%
Nathan Pennekamp 100% 59.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 69.0%
Zac Shaw 100% 69.9 45.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 100% 2.0 0.2 52.4 25.1 12.6 6.1 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Gabriel Connelly 100% 8.4 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.8 10.7 11.5 11.8 13.1 11.1 8.8 7.4 5.1 3.1 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Daniel Adair 100% 9.7 0.1 0.7 1.4 4.1 6.4 7.1 10.2 11.2 12.3 11.5 9.0 8.2 5.6 4.1 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Luke Bentz 100% 12.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.8 5.0 7.0 10.0 10.5 11.3 11.1 10.8 7.7 7.1 3.8 3.4 2.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 100.0%
Tyler Strothman 100% 20.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.8 5.0 5.4 7.0 7.5 6.6 7.9 8.5 6.4 5.4 5.5 6.1 100.0%
Nathan Pennekamp 100% 23.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.5 4.4 5.4 5.4 7.1 6.7 6.8 6.1 7.1 6.1 100.0%
Zac Shaw 100% 27.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.6 5.1 5.5 99.9%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 1.0 69.8 21.4 5.3 2.4 0.9 0.3
Gabriel Connelly 5.4 4.1 9.9 13.7 15.6 17.1 13.6 11.0 6.3 4.2 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1
Daniel Adair 6.4 1.8 5.4 9.3 12.3 15.2 15.7 12.1 11.3 6.6 4.0 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Luke Bentz 8.4 0.1 1.4 2.9 4.8 7.7 12.0 14.4 16.5 12.9 10.1 6.2 3.8 2.4 2.2 1.2 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Tyler Strothman 15.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.8 6.8 8.2 9.6 7.9 8.1 8.1 7.7 7.8 7.0 6.2 4.4 3.9 3.2 1.9 1.3
Nathan Pennekamp 17.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 4.8 6.2 7.4 8.1 6.8 8.7 7.4 7.3 6.9 6.3 5.7 5.3 3.8 2.5
Zac Shaw 21.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.9 4.7 5.6 5.6 7.5 6.1 7.9 8.3 7.8 7.2 7.2