All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
| Season Rating | |
Huntington Invitational |
Warsaw Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Bruin Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
Valley Twilight |
Northrop Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | |
8/22 |
8/25 |
8/29 |
9/5 |
9/12 |
9/19 |
9/26 |
10/3 |
10/10 |
10/17 |
10/24 |
10/31 |
| Team Rating |
371 |
401 |
1,155 |
398 |
379 |
391 |
485 |
403 |
462 |
462 |
406 |
388 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
377 |
371 |
376 |
356 |
371 |
390 |
382 |
390 |
427 |
406 |
388 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Huntington Invitational |
Warsaw Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Bruin Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
Valley Twilight |
Northrop Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 26 |
Ethan Baitz |
11 |
16:03 |
15:58 |
|
16:08 |
16:10 |
15:59 |
16:08 |
16:10 |
16:04 |
16:45 |
16:21 |
16:09 |
15:56 |
| 107 |
Donny McArdle |
12 |
16:40 |
16:54 |
|
16:25 |
16:27 |
16:23 |
|
16:44 |
16:43 |
16:54 |
16:45 |
16:38 |
|
| 283 |
Bryson Leffers |
9 |
17:11 |
17:37 |
|
17:46 |
17:50 |
17:41 |
17:35 |
17:21 |
17:34 |
17:01 |
16:53 |
17:19 |
|
| 307 |
Henry Myers |
12 |
17:13 |
16:57 |
|
17:03 |
16:46 |
17:10 |
17:04 |
17:03 |
|
17:23 |
17:42 |
17:46 |
|
| 335 |
Chase Molden |
11 |
17:17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17:24 |
17:11 |
|
| 458 |
Tyler Peters |
12 |
17:34 |
|
|
18:13 |
|
18:09 |
18:03 |
18:23 |
17:51 |
17:44 |
17:31 |
17:22 |
|
| 470 |
Grayson Welch |
10 |
17:36 |
17:35 |
|
17:32 |
17:35 |
17:29 |
17:31 |
17:33 |
17:22 |
18:03 |
17:46 |
17:40 |
|
| 503 |
Ben Johnson |
11 |
17:39 |
|
|
17:34 |
17:41 |
17:43 |
17:37 |
17:44 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 597 |
Aidan Sheppard |
12 |
17:49 |
17:23 |
|
17:34 |
17:26 |
17:33 |
17:59 |
17:55 |
18:15 |
18:07 |
|
|
|
| 760 |
Anthony Gery |
10 |
18:05 |
|
|
17:57 |
17:42 |
18:12 |
18:10 |
18:04 |
18:16 |
|
|
|
|
| 881 |
Carson Heckman |
10 |
18:15 |
|
|
18:02 |
17:55 |
18:11 |
18:22 |
18:22 |
18:27 |
|
|
|
|
| 922 |
Max Falloon |
11 |
18:19 |
18:28 |
|
18:15 |
|
18:17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 943 |
Tyler Neff |
10 |
18:21 |
|
|
18:04 |
18:30 |
18:28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 974 |
Jude Minich |
11 |
18:23 |
|
18:43 |
18:04 |
18:14 |
18:37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 976 |
Justin Englehart |
12 |
18:23 |
|
|
18:24 |
|
18:27 |
|
18:22 |
18:23 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,122 |
Ashton Hackman |
12 |
18:34 |
|
|
18:11 |
18:22 |
18:20 |
|
18:58 |
18:51 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,259 |
Ayden Cooper |
9 |
18:44 |
|
|
18:22 |
|
19:03 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nathan Schlutz |
12 |
19:00 |
|
20:10 |
18:41 |
|
19:09 |
18:47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ethan Widenhoefer |
9 |
19:01 |
|
19:02 |
19:00 |
|
19:03 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dylan Jackson |
10 |
19:07 |
|
19:16 |
19:31 |
|
18:49 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Keaton Ueber |
10 |
19:14 |
|
19:06 |
20:08 |
|
18:57 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tim Ruppert |
9 |
19:16 |
|
18:56 |
19:25 |
|
19:23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aidan Houser |
11 |
19:17 |
|
18:43 |
19:13 |
|
19:52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sam Ratkos |
10 |
19:25 |
|
|
18:18 |
|
20:18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
6.9 |
224 |
|
0.3 |
2.3 |
9.3 |
14.1 |
18.3 |
20.1 |
14.0 |
10.1 |
6.2 |
3.5 |
1.6 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
2.9 |
89 |
4.3 |
35.0 |
30.1 |
23.4 |
7.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.9 |
81 |
3.4 |
34.3 |
32.8 |
29.2 |
0.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ethan Baitz |
99.1% |
26.1 |
|
|
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
99.1% |
99.1% |
| Donny McArdle |
18.3% |
73.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
18.3% |
18.3% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ethan Baitz |
100% |
7.9 |
0.1 |
3.2 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
9.9 |
9.4 |
7.6 |
7.6 |
6.4 |
5.2 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Donny McArdle |
100% |
34.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
|
99.9% |
| Bryson Leffers |
100% |
71.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
63.0% |
| Henry Myers |
100% |
75.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50.8% |
| Chase Molden |
100% |
81.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40.9% |
| Tyler Peters |
100% |
105.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.0% |
| Grayson Welch |
100% |
107.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.6% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ethan Baitz |
100% |
3.7 |
|
13.3 |
20.3 |
22.5 |
15.4 |
11.9 |
9.3 |
4.6 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Donny McArdle |
100% |
11.9 |
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
3.8 |
8.4 |
11.9 |
11.6 |
12.7 |
13.8 |
9.8 |
5.9 |
5.4 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Bryson Leffers |
100% |
26.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Henry Myers |
100% |
28.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
|
99.9% |
| Chase Molden |
100% |
30.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.6 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
|
99.8% |
| Tyler Peters |
100% |
43.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
89.4% |
| Grayson Welch |
100% |
44.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
88.1% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ethan Baitz |
1.8 |
17.3 |
39.8 |
19.0 |
12.5 |
8.1 |
2.2 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Donny McArdle |
8.4 |
|
|
0.4 |
1.4 |
4.5 |
10.4 |
12.2 |
14.3 |
16.4 |
12.8 |
8.7 |
6.0 |
4.3 |
2.8 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Bryson Leffers |
21.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
5.4 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
6.8 |
6.3 |
7.2 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
| Henry Myers |
22.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
4.3 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
5.4 |
4.6 |
6.7 |
6.3 |
6.9 |
6.8 |
7.2 |
| Chase Molden |
24.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
5.4 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
| Tyler Peters |
32.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
| Grayson Welch |
32.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
1.4 |
|
