Penn
Boys - Girls
2019 - 2020 - 2021
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State Rank #20
New Haven Semi-State Rank #5
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #2
Riley Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 17th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 9.3%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Penn Invitational Manchester Invitational Wildcat Classic Invitational Concord Invitational New Prairie Invitational Elkhart JV Invitational New Haven Invitational Northern Indiana Conference Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/12 9/19 9/24 9/26 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31
Team Rating 327 389 352 381 1,267 320 340 432 414 370 363 373
Team Adjusted Rating 389 352 381 327 320 340 432 414 370 363 330
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Penn Invitational Manchester Invitational Wildcat Classic Invitational Concord Invitational New Prairie Invitational Elkhart JV Invitational New Haven Invitational Northern Indiana Conference Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Mariano Retzloff 11 15:45 16:08 16:25 15:56 16:00 15:39 16:35 16:34 16:00 15:41 15:38
137  Dillon Pottschmidt 12 16:47 16:57 17:11 16:52 16:40 16:39 16:48 16:52 16:42 16:46 16:43
192  Carter Kaser 11 16:56 19:03 16:31 16:42 16:41 16:50 17:11 16:47 16:59 17:37
241  Jason Juarez 10 17:05 17:28 17:15 17:23 17:16 17:36 17:36 17:39 17:30 17:18 16:58
272  Ben Boardley 12 17:10 19:48 16:48 17:41 17:02 17:08 17:09 17:12 17:12 16:57 17:57
432  Samik Ghosh 12 17:32 18:21 18:42 18:21 18:13 18:05 18:07 17:24
453  Nick Probst 10 17:34 17:30 17:29 17:33 17:33 17:29 17:51 17:44 17:41 17:25 17:29
693  Caleb Evans 12 17:58 18:15 17:55 17:49 17:50 17:48 18:00 18:18 17:54 17:57 18:13
782  Bryce Marling 10 18:07 17:52 17:33 17:56 17:54 18:41 18:45
882  Taylor Cussen 12 18:15 18:08 18:15 18:00 18:28 18:21 18:17
964  Joey Rutten 11 18:22 19:08 18:38 18:29 18:25 18:16 18:07 18:12
986  Hudson Kaser 9 18:24 18:12 18:22 20:00 18:37 NEI 18:11
1,430  Declan O'Donnell 10 18:56 18:40 19:05 18:18 19:19 19:05
1,459  Brayden Mammolenti 10 18:59 18:57 19:06 NEI 18:47
Will Mickelson 9 19:06 19:22 19:10 19:11 18:50 NEI 18:54
Noah Schafer 9 19:18 18:58 18:55 19:21 19:21 19:44




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 15.8 406 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 3.0 4.0 4.7 6.2 6.7 8.6 8.3 10.3 10.6 10.1 9.3 8.1 5.9 1.5 0.7 0.2
Semi-State 100% 5.6 196 0.1 0.8 8.3 22.6 22.5 18.8 11.5 8.1 4.1 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.6 54 54.9 32.9 12.2
Sectionals 100% 1.0 24 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 9.4 0.6 2.2 5.3 7.0 6.4 6.7 8.0 5.8 6.5 5.3 5.4 5.0 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.4 2.2 1.4 1.0 0.7 100.0%
Dillon Pottschmidt 100% 115.1 5.9%
Carter Kaser 100% 133.5 1.0%
Jason Juarez 100% 150.0 0.2%
Ben Boardley 100% 158.0 0.0%
Samik Ghosh 100% 182.3 0.0%
Nick Probst 100% 184.1 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 2.6 2.3 36.8 19.3 13.6 9.0 5.5 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Dillon Pottschmidt 100% 41.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.7 100.0%
Carter Kaser 100% 51.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Jason Juarez 100% 64.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.2%
Ben Boardley 100% 69.9 0.1 97.5%
Samik Ghosh 100% 102.0 58.5%
Nick Probst 100% 106.0 51.6%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 1.0 78.6 18.8 2.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Dillon Pottschmidt 100% 8.3 0.8 3.0 6.6 11.0 13.0 11.7 15.0 12.7 9.9 6.8 4.1 2.3 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Carter Kaser 100% 11.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 4.3 8.0 8.3 12.1 13.2 11.7 12.0 8.5 5.5 4.6 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.2 100.0%
Jason Juarez 100% 14.2 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.9 4.0 5.8 9.5 10.2 12.7 10.8 10.4 6.9 6.0 4.4 3.8 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.4 0.7 100.0%
Ben Boardley 100% 16.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 3.2 5.3 7.1 10.3 10.2 10.6 10.5 7.2 6.7 5.9 4.8 3.9 2.4 2.1 1.6 100.0%
Samik Ghosh 100% 27.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.7 3.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.9 6.4 100.0%
Nick Probst 100% 28.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.9 3.8 4.7 4.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 1.0 99.4 0.6
Dillon Pottschmidt 2.8 7.3 51.4 28.4 9.7 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1
Carter Kaser 4.2 1.3 10.0 31.2 33.1 14.7 6.4 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2
Jason Juarez 5.9 0.1 1.2 7.1 16.3 29.4 21.3 12.2 6.5 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.3
Ben Boardley 6.8 0.2 1.6 8.3 19.4 26.5 17.6 11.1 7.1 4.3 2.6 1.1 0.5
Samik Ghosh 12.2 0.1 0.6 4.6 7.9 11.1 10.6 11.3 17.0 15.5 9.6 5.4 3.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Nick Probst 12.8 0.1 0.3 2.2 6.5 9.0 10.0 11.1 14.4 16.8 13.2 7.2 4.6 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1