Michigan St.
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.2#4
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#16
Pace72.4#93
Improvement+2.7#71

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#6
First Shot+5.9#30
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#5
Layup/Dunks+2.8#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#187
Freethrows+2.4#29
Improvement-0.9#234

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#11
First Shot+6.2#28
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#22
Layups/Dunks+2.8#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#106
Freethrows+0.9#124
Improvement+3.6#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.6% 3.7% 0.8%
#1 Seed 19.6% 20.3% 8.7%
Top 2 Seed 48.3% 49.5% 27.9%
Top 4 Seed 87.7% 88.5% 74.0%
Top 6 Seed 97.6% 97.9% 92.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.8% 99.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.8% 98.9%
Average Seed 2.8 2.7 3.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 62.6% 64.0% 38.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round99.8% 99.8% 99.1%
Second Round92.8% 93.1% 88.0%
Sweet Sixteen66.2% 66.7% 58.9%
Elite Eight41.7% 42.2% 33.8%
Final Four24.7% 25.0% 18.2%
Championship Game14.0% 14.2% 9.4%
National Champion7.7% 7.8% 5.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Home) - 94.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 76 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 8
Quad 25 - 116 - 9
Quad 33 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 12   Kentucky L 62-69 63%     0 - 1 +7.9 -5.1 +13.2
  Nov 10, 2019 337   Binghamton W 100-47 99%     1 - 1 +38.5 +14.2 +23.0
  Nov 14, 2019 10   @ Seton Hall W 76-73 49%     2 - 1 +21.4 +9.1 +12.2
  Nov 18, 2019 272   Charleston Southern W 94-46 99%     3 - 1 +38.8 +13.3 +24.0
  Nov 25, 2019 67   Virginia Tech L 66-71 83%     3 - 2 +2.9 +3.8 -1.4
  Nov 26, 2019 83   Georgia W 93-85 86%     4 - 2 +14.6 +11.5 +2.1
  Nov 27, 2019 117   UCLA W 75-62 91%     5 - 2 +16.1 +12.8 +5.2
  Dec 03, 2019 2   Duke L 75-87 52%     5 - 3 +5.6 +5.1 +1.4
  Dec 08, 2019 33   Rutgers W 77-65 81%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +20.8 +7.5 +12.7
  Dec 14, 2019 249   Oakland W 72-49 97%     7 - 3 +18.0 -3.5 +21.2
  Dec 18, 2019 110   @ Northwestern W 77-72 85%     8 - 3 2 - 0 +12.2 +7.2 +5.0
  Dec 21, 2019 225   Eastern Michigan W 101-48 98%     9 - 3 +46.3 +19.0 +21.0
  Dec 29, 2019 231   Western Michigan W 95-62 98%     10 - 3 +26.0 +19.3 +7.1
  Jan 02, 2020 25   Illinois W 76-56 78%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +30.0 +7.2 +22.8
  Jan 05, 2020 31   Michigan W 87-69 79%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +27.5 +13.7 +12.8
  Jan 09, 2020 39   Minnesota W 74-58 83%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +24.1 +8.8 +16.4
  Jan 12, 2020 19   @ Purdue L 42-71 57%     13 - 4 5 - 1 -12.6 -13.7 -3.9
  Jan 17, 2020 30   Wisconsin W 67-55 79%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +21.6 +6.2 +16.4
  Jan 23, 2020 37   @ Indiana L 63-67 64%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +10.3 +3.3 +6.7
  Jan 26, 2020 39   @ Minnesota W 70-52 66%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +32.0 +9.6 +24.1
  Jan 29, 2020 110   Northwestern W 78-61 94%    
  Feb 01, 2020 30   @ Wisconsin W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 04, 2020 24   Penn St. W 79-71 78%    
  Feb 08, 2020 31   @ Michigan W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 11, 2020 25   @ Illinois W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 15, 2020 8   Maryland W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 20, 2020 115   @ Nebraska W 82-70 87%    
  Feb 25, 2020 15   Iowa W 82-75 74%    
  Feb 29, 2020 8   @ Maryland L 69-70 46%    
  Mar 03, 2020 24   @ Penn St. W 76-74 58%    
  Mar 08, 2020 13   Ohio St. W 72-66 73%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.7 10.8 20.1 18.1 9.5 2.4 62.6 1st
2nd 0.6 6.2 8.9 3.0 0.3 0.0 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 5.1 1.3 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.4 2.8 1.2 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.1 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 7.3 14.3 21.0 23.2 18.4 9.5 2.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.4    2.4
17-3 99.9% 9.5    9.4 0.1
16-4 98.2% 18.1    16.5 1.6 0.0
15-5 86.6% 20.1    13.6 6.0 0.5 0.0
14-6 51.4% 10.8    3.3 4.9 2.3 0.4 0.0
13-7 12.1% 1.7    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 62.6% 62.6 45.2 13.0 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.4% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.5% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 1.4 5.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 18.4% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.8 6.9 8.8 2.5 0.2 100.0%
15-5 23.2% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 2.3 4.0 9.9 7.6 1.6 0.1 100.0%
14-6 21.0% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 3.0 1.0 4.7 9.4 4.7 1.0 0.1 100.0%
13-7 14.3% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 3.8 0.1 1.1 4.8 4.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 100.0%
12-8 7.3% 99.9% 16.1% 83.8% 4.8 0.1 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 2.9% 98.8% 9.5% 89.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
10-10 0.8% 89.4% 3.7% 85.6% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 88.9%
9-11 0.1% 59.2% 8.5% 50.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 55.4%
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 29.0% 70.8% 2.8 19.6 28.6 26.0 13.5 6.8 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.1 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 82.6 17.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 72.1 27.4 0.5