Michigan St.
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.7#1
Expected Predictive Rating+17.7#15
Pace71.2#138
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 11.2% 11.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 38.1% 38.2% 5.9%
Top 2 Seed 62.8% 62.9% 23.5%
Top 4 Seed 85.9% 86.0% 70.6%
Top 6 Seed 94.3% 94.4% 82.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% 98.8% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 98.2% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.5 2.5 4.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 98.8% 100.0%
Conference Champion 51.6% 51.7% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round98.8% 98.8% 100.0%
Second Round91.9% 91.9% 82.4%
Sweet Sixteen69.9% 70.0% 52.9%
Elite Eight48.3% 48.4% 29.4%
Final Four30.5% 30.5% 17.6%
Championship Game19.5% 19.6% 5.9%
National Champion12.0% 12.0% 5.9%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 26 - 116 - 6
Quad 35 - 021 - 6
Quad 44 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 5   Kentucky L 62-69 58%     0 - 1 +11.6 -1.0 +12.8
  Nov 10, 2019 341   Binghamton W 100-47 99.7%    1 - 1 +36.8 +16.7 +18.9
  Nov 14, 2019 19   @ Seton Hall W 76-73 65%     2 - 1 +19.8 +6.9 +12.7
  Nov 18, 2019 294   Charleston Southern W 87-56 99.8%   
  Nov 25, 2019 65   Virginia Tech W 74-61 88%    
  Dec 03, 2019 2   Duke W 79-76 61%    
  Dec 08, 2019 76   Rutgers W 78-61 94%    
  Dec 14, 2019 169   Oakland W 81-60 98%    
  Dec 18, 2019 111   @ Northwestern W 74-60 90%    
  Dec 21, 2019 221   Eastern Michigan W 80-53 99%    
  Dec 29, 2019 237   Western Michigan W 89-61 99%    
  Jan 02, 2020 54   Illinois W 84-69 90%    
  Jan 05, 2020 29   Michigan W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 09, 2020 69   Minnesota W 79-63 92%    
  Jan 12, 2020 18   @ Purdue W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 17, 2020 38   Wisconsin W 72-59 87%    
  Jan 23, 2020 45   @ Indiana W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 26, 2020 69   @ Minnesota W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 29, 2020 111   Northwestern W 77-57 95%    
  Feb 01, 2020 38   @ Wisconsin W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 04, 2020 25   Penn St. W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 08, 2020 29   @ Michigan W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 11, 2020 54   @ Illinois W 81-72 77%    
  Feb 15, 2020 10   Maryland W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 20, 2020 148   @ Nebraska W 78-61 93%    
  Feb 25, 2020 60   Iowa W 87-72 90%    
  Feb 29, 2020 10   @ Maryland W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 03, 2020 25   @ Penn St. W 77-72 66%    
  Mar 08, 2020 9   Ohio St. W 72-65 71%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 7.1 12.9 13.8 10.6 4.2 51.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.9 6.8 3.7 0.9 0.0 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 4.3 3.6 1.4 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.2 0.3 4.1 5th
6th 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.8 4.3 6.4 10.0 12.5 15.4 16.7 14.7 10.6 4.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 4.2    4.2
19-1 99.9% 10.6    10.2 0.4
18-2 94.1% 13.8    12.0 1.8 0.0
17-3 77.6% 12.9    9.1 3.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 46.4% 7.1    3.1 3.1 0.9 0.1
15-5 20.0% 2.5    0.6 1.0 0.8 0.2
14-6 4.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 51.6% 51.6 39.2 9.9 2.2 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 4.2% 100.0% 67.0% 33.0% 1.1 3.9 0.3 100.0%
19-1 10.6% 100.0% 57.3% 42.7% 1.2 8.8 1.8 0.0 100.0%
18-2 14.7% 100.0% 51.5% 48.5% 1.3 10.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 16.7% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.6 8.3 6.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.4% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 2.1 4.6 6.5 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.5% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 2.8 1.4 3.8 4.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-6 10.0% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 3.5 0.4 1.7 3.2 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.2 100.0%
13-7 6.4% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 4.5 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 4.3% 99.0% 9.5% 89.5% 5.7 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
11-9 2.8% 95.0% 5.6% 89.4% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 94.7%
10-10 1.2% 80.1% 5.8% 74.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 78.9%
9-11 0.6% 54.5% 0.3% 54.1% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 54.3%
8-12 0.4% 40.7% 40.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 40.7%
7-13 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 9.0 0.0 0.2 6.5%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.8% 36.5% 62.3% 2.5 38.1 24.7 14.8 8.3 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 98.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 1.1 93.7 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 85.5 14.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 10.7