St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#143
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#229
Pace63.2#324
Improvement+1.7#21

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#178
First Shot-0.5#186
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#145
Layup/Dunks-0.7#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#177
Freethrows+0.0#174
Improvement+2.6#1

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#127
First Shot+1.0#136
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#163
Layups/Dunks-0.1#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#107
Freethrows-5.2#340
Improvement-0.9#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.0% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.7
.500 or above 48.6% 56.1% 29.8%
.500 or above in Conference 52.7% 56.8% 42.6%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.1% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 4.1% 7.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round2.5% 3.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Away) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 36 - 78 - 13
Quad 47 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 154   Ohio L 53-65 65%     0 - 1 -14.8 -13.5 -2.8
  Nov 08, 2019 79   Vermont L 59-61 40%     0 - 2 +1.8 -7.4 +9.2
  Nov 12, 2019 178   @ Siena L 65-78 47%     0 - 3 -11.1 -5.6 -5.6
  Nov 16, 2019 91   Rutgers W 80-74 34%     1 - 3 +11.4 +18.5 -6.5
  Nov 23, 2019 297   @ Canisius W 71-65 71%    
  Nov 26, 2019 220   Mercer W 77-70 75%    
  Dec 01, 2019 159   San Diego W 64-63 55%    
  Dec 07, 2019 192   Hofstra W 74-68 70%    
  Dec 18, 2019 332   Niagara W 77-61 92%    
  Dec 21, 2019 200   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 30, 2019 104   @ Buffalo L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 05, 2020 258   @ George Washington W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 08, 2020 142   @ George Mason L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 11, 2020 232   Fordham W 64-56 76%    
  Jan 15, 2020 168   Massachusetts W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 18, 2020 39   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-74 13%    
  Jan 22, 2020 64   @ Dayton L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 25, 2020 75   Rhode Island L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 29, 2020 232   @ Fordham W 61-59 57%    
  Feb 01, 2020 142   George Mason W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 05, 2020 258   George Washington W 69-60 79%    
  Feb 08, 2020 97   @ Duquesne L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 11, 2020 189   @ Saint Joseph's L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 14, 2020 70   Davidson L 62-66 38%    
  Feb 22, 2020 105   Richmond W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 26, 2020 97   Duquesne L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 29, 2020 206   @ La Salle W 66-65 52%    
  Mar 04, 2020 189   Saint Joseph's W 79-73 69%    
  Mar 07, 2020 116   @ Saint Louis L 62-67 35%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 2.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.0 3.5 0.7 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.3 1.4 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 5.3 2.3 0.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.1 3.1 0.4 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.9 0.9 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.2 2.0 3.7 1.2 0.1 7.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 2.8 1.4 0.1 6.0 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 1.9 1.1 0.2 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.1 6.6 9.5 11.0 12.9 13.1 12.1 10.3 7.6 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 83.9% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 68.7% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1
14-4 26.8% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
13-5 7.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 34.2% 27.6% 6.6% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.1%
16-2 0.6% 29.8% 21.8% 8.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10.3%
15-3 1.3% 15.2% 13.8% 1.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.6%
14-4 2.8% 12.9% 12.3% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.4 0.7%
13-5 4.8% 7.6% 7.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5
12-6 7.6% 7.5% 7.4% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.1 0.1%
11-7 10.3% 3.7% 3.7% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.9
10-8 12.1% 1.9% 1.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8
9-9 13.1% 0.9% 0.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.0
8-10 12.9% 0.4% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 12.8
7-11 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9
6-12 9.5% 9.5
5-13 6.6% 6.6
4-14 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.6% 2.4% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 97.4 0.1%