Preseason Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#235
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#183
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#264
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#175
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 13.5% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.9 12.6 14.2
.500 or above 44.7% 80.7% 42.4%
.500 or above in Conference 47.6% 76.1% 45.7%
Conference Champion 5.7% 17.1% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.9% 2.5% 10.3%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round4.4% 12.9% 3.8%
Second Round0.4% 2.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 6.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 410 - 513 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 62-79 6%    
  Nov 16, 2022 280   Merrimack W 64-60 63%    
  Nov 18, 2022 357   St. Thomas W 76-60 92%    
  Nov 19, 2022 170   @ Montana L 64-70 30%    
  Nov 28, 2022 11   @ Arkansas L 61-84 3%    
  Dec 03, 2022 326   @ SIU Edwardsville W 72-68 64%    
  Dec 05, 2022 23   @ San Diego St. L 55-75 5%    
  Dec 10, 2022 305   Tennessee Tech W 77-69 75%    
  Dec 17, 2022 316   @ SE Louisiana W 76-73 60%    
  Dec 21, 2022 198   Mercer W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 29, 2022 299   @ Southern Miss W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 31, 2022 168   @ Texas St. L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 05, 2023 186   Old Dominion W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 07, 2023 230   Arkansas St. W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 12, 2023 169   @ Georgia St. L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 14, 2023 183   @ Appalachian St. L 62-68 32%    
  Jan 19, 2023 162   James Madison L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 21, 2023 259   Louisiana Monroe W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 26, 2023 158   @ Louisiana L 61-68 30%    
  Jan 28, 2023 205   @ South Alabama L 65-70 36%    
  Feb 02, 2023 299   Southern Miss W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 04, 2023 168   Texas St. L 64-65 50%    
  Feb 09, 2023 205   South Alabama W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 158   Louisiana L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 16, 2023 230   @ Arkansas St. L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 18, 2023 159   @ Marshall L 73-80 31%    
  Feb 22, 2023 259   @ Louisiana Monroe L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 24, 2023 184   Coastal Carolina W 70-69 51%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.0 1.5 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.7 0.9 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.5 1.5 0.1 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.2 1.7 0.2 7.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.3 13th
14th 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.0 14th
Total 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.1 7.7 9.2 10.3 10.6 9.8 9.5 8.2 6.9 5.1 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.6% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 89.0% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 69.7% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.3% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 58.5% 41.1% 17.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 29.6%
17-1 0.6% 43.7% 33.3% 10.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 15.6%
16-2 1.3% 31.6% 29.2% 2.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.4%
15-3 2.3% 21.7% 21.4% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.4%
14-4 3.7% 16.2% 16.0% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1 0.3%
13-5 5.1% 11.2% 11.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5
12-6 6.9% 8.6% 8.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.3
11-7 8.2% 6.5% 6.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.6
10-8 9.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.1
9-9 9.8% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.6
8-10 10.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.4
7-11 10.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.2
6-12 9.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.1
5-13 7.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.6
4-14 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-15 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
2-16 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 4.8% 4.6% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 95.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%