North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#30
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#27
Pace76.1#43
Improvement-0.1#228

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#17
First Shot+8.0#16
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#159
Layup/Dunks+2.9#87
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#140
Freethrows+1.5#101
Improvement-0.1#238

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#60
First Shot+6.9#30
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#310
Layups/Dunks-2.0#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#50
Freethrows+2.2#75
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.3% 3.8% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 14.0% 15.6% 4.6%
Top 6 Seed 32.1% 35.0% 14.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.4% 82.8% 65.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.7% 80.4% 61.9%
Average Seed 7.1 7.0 8.2
.500 or above 99.0% 99.4% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 91.9% 75.9%
Conference Champion 11.1% 12.3% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four6.0% 5.6% 8.1%
First Round77.6% 80.2% 62.0%
Second Round46.7% 49.0% 33.0%
Sweet Sixteen19.2% 20.6% 10.8%
Elite Eight7.8% 8.4% 4.5%
Final Four3.0% 3.2% 1.9%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Home) - 85.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 8
Quad 35 - 115 - 8
Quad 48 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 279   Austin Peay W 99-50 97%     1 - 0 +40.1 +18.7 +19.3
  Nov 11, 2022 196   Campbell W 73-67 94%     2 - 0 +1.6 -0.7 +2.3
  Nov 15, 2022 242   Florida International W 107-74 96%     3 - 0 +25.9 +14.3 +6.6
  Nov 19, 2022 344   Elon W 74-63 99%     4 - 0 -4.9 -7.6 +2.8
  Nov 23, 2022 17   Kansas L 74-80 38%     4 - 1 +9.9 +5.6 +4.7
  Nov 24, 2022 72   Dayton W 76-64 69%     5 - 1 +19.7 +12.4 +7.6
  Nov 25, 2022 54   Butler W 76-61 63%     6 - 1 +24.3 +11.8 +13.0
  Nov 29, 2022 288   William & Mary W 85-64 97%     7 - 1 +11.4 +3.5 +7.2
  Dec 02, 2022 105   Pittsburgh W 80-69 86%    
  Dec 06, 2022 312   Coppin St. W 96-71 99%    
  Dec 10, 2022 37   @ Miami (FL) L 78-79 46%    
  Dec 13, 2022 87   Furman W 83-73 81%    
  Dec 17, 2022 88   Vanderbilt W 80-73 74%    
  Dec 22, 2022 213   Louisville W 82-63 96%    
  Dec 30, 2022 76   @ Clemson W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 04, 2023 19   Duke W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 07, 2023 58   @ Virginia Tech W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 14, 2023 37   Miami (FL) W 81-76 68%    
  Jan 17, 2023 108   @ Georgia Tech W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 23   @ North Carolina L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 24, 2023 78   Notre Dame W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 28, 2023 70   @ Wake Forest W 82-80 56%    
  Feb 01, 2023 187   Florida St. W 86-69 94%    
  Feb 04, 2023 108   Georgia Tech W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 07, 2023 13   @ Virginia L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 11, 2023 146   @ Boston College W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 14, 2023 96   @ Syracuse W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 19, 2023 23   North Carolina W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 22, 2023 70   Wake Forest W 85-77 76%    
  Feb 25, 2023 76   Clemson W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 28, 2023 19   @ Duke L 72-78 31%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.5 2.9 3.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.7 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.5 4.4 0.9 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.3 0.7 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.8 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.1 7.7 10.9 13.4 14.8 14.2 12.2 8.3 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 97.1% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 89.4% 2.0    1.6 0.4
17-3 70.2% 3.6    2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 35.6% 2.9    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 12.2% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.0 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 46.2% 53.8% 1.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.2% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 2.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.1% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.4 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.3% 99.9% 16.6% 83.4% 4.5 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 12.2% 99.9% 15.9% 84.0% 5.7 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 14.2% 98.4% 13.1% 85.4% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.4 4.1 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.2%
13-7 14.8% 95.5% 10.8% 84.7% 8.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 3.9 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.7 94.9%
12-8 13.4% 85.7% 9.1% 76.5% 9.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.3 2.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 84.2%
11-9 10.9% 66.8% 7.6% 59.2% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 3.6 64.1%
10-10 7.7% 47.1% 6.4% 40.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.1 43.5%
9-11 5.1% 20.1% 5.3% 14.7% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 15.6%
8-12 2.9% 7.5% 5.8% 1.7% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.9%
7-13 1.5% 4.3% 4.0% 0.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.3%
6-14 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 80.4% 11.8% 68.6% 7.1 0.9 2.4 4.1 6.6 8.2 9.9 10.9 10.9 10.1 8.5 6.3 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 19.6 77.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 65.2 34.8