Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#258
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#276
Pace66.2#250
Improvement+0.0#190

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#227
First Shot-2.0#237
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#163
Layup/Dunks-4.7#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
Freethrows+1.3#80
Improvement-0.7#222

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#264
First Shot-2.3#256
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#258
Layups/Dunks-5.1#337
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#101
Freethrows+1.4#82
Improvement+0.6#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.5% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 12.4% 17.7% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.4% 17.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 1.7% 1.6%
First Round1.5% 1.7% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 413 - 614 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 283   Old Dominion W 73-68 65%     1 - 0 -3.9 -2.0 -2.0
  Nov 18, 2023 232   @ Evansville L 50-74 35%     1 - 1 -24.8 -21.7 -3.6
  Nov 21, 2023 286   South Carolina Upstate W 75-58 66%     2 - 1 +7.8 +4.5 +4.7
  Nov 24, 2023 339   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-74 83%     3 - 1 +2.9 +11.8 -8.6
  Nov 28, 2023 211   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 64-90 32%     3 - 2 -26.0 -5.3 -22.8
  Dec 02, 2023 309   Bellarmine W 67-58 72%     4 - 2 -2.0 -7.4 +6.1
  Dec 06, 2023 353   @ Detroit Mercy W 68-65 75%     5 - 2 -9.0 -11.9 +2.9
  Dec 10, 2023 291   SIU Edwardsville W 83-71 68%     6 - 2 +2.4 +12.3 -9.0
  Dec 16, 2023 52   Indiana St. L 72-83 9%     6 - 3 -1.1 +1.4 -2.4
  Dec 21, 2023 62   @ Minnesota L 63-80 7%     6 - 4 -5.4 -0.4 -6.5
  Jan 02, 2024 170   @ Kent St. L 69-82 25%     6 - 5 0 - 1 -10.8 -0.6 -10.7
  Jan 06, 2024 274   Central Michigan L 65-71 63%     6 - 6 0 - 2 -14.3 -1.1 -13.8
  Jan 09, 2024 104   Akron L 76-80 26%     6 - 7 0 - 3 -2.1 +10.2 -12.6
  Jan 13, 2024 148   @ Toledo L 72-77 21%     6 - 8 0 - 4 -1.2 +6.4 -8.3
  Jan 16, 2024 326   @ Eastern Michigan W 76-62 60%     7 - 8 1 - 4 +6.5 +0.1 +6.6
  Jan 20, 2024 235   Miami (OH) L 80-87 OT 56%     7 - 9 1 - 5 -13.4 -4.8 -7.7
  Jan 23, 2024 341   @ Buffalo W 87-59 69%     8 - 9 2 - 5 +18.0 +4.9 +11.7
  Jan 27, 2024 313   Northern Illinois W 81-71 73%     9 - 9 3 - 5 -1.2 +1.1 -2.4
  Jan 30, 2024 246   Bowling Green L 72-81 58%     9 - 10 3 - 6 -15.8 -0.2 -16.1
  Feb 03, 2024 302   @ Western Michigan W 77-67 50%     10 - 10 4 - 6 +5.1 +4.5 +0.9
  Feb 06, 2024 152   Ohio L 79-84 OT 39%     10 - 11 4 - 7 -7.0 -0.5 -6.2
  Feb 10, 2024 200   @ Texas St. L 60-68 31%     10 - 12 -7.6 -4.3 -4.1
  Feb 17, 2024 235   @ Miami (OH) L 59-80 35%     10 - 13 4 - 8 -21.9 -10.0 -13.2
  Feb 20, 2024 313   @ Northern Illinois W 70-63 53%     11 - 13 5 - 8 +1.3 -7.4 +8.5
  Feb 24, 2024 326   Eastern Michigan L 56-58 78%     11 - 14 5 - 9 -15.0 -19.1 +4.0
  Feb 27, 2024 274   @ Central Michigan W 79-71 42%     12 - 14 6 - 9 +5.1 +11.9 -6.5
  Mar 02, 2024 302   Western Michigan W 74-69 70%    
  Mar 05, 2024 170   Kent St. L 71-73 45%    
  Mar 08, 2024 246   @ Bowling Green L 70-73 37%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 6.1 6.2 5th
6th 3.4 6.3 9.7 6th
7th 21.8 21.8 7th
8th 11.9 12.5 24.4 8th
9th 9.7 26.1 0.5 36.3 9th
10th 1.5 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 11.3 38.1 38.2 12.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 12.4% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.1 0.4 12.0
8-10 38.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9 37.3
7-11 38.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 37.3
6-12 11.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 11.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 2.2 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.4% 3.6% 15.8 0.7 3.0
Lose Out 11.3% 1.3% 16.0 1.3