Kent St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#108
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#174
Pace69.1#185
Improvement-2.0#333

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#107
First Shot-0.6#191
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#43
Layup/Dunks-0.3#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#116
Freethrows+0.8#131
Improvement-1.0#287

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#121
First Shot+2.9#92
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#251
Layups/Dunks+4.3#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#288
Freethrows+0.3#170
Improvement-1.0#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.1% 27.8% 20.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 12.8 13.5
.500 or above 89.0% 94.6% 83.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 95.3% 91.5%
Conference Champion 30.3% 34.5% 26.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round23.9% 27.5% 20.2%
Second Round4.2% 5.6% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 47 - 9
Quad 410 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 67   James Madison L 108-113 2OT 46%     0 - 1 +0.0 +3.4 -1.9
  Nov 11, 2023 166   Fresno St. W 79-69 75%     1 - 1 +6.9 +8.1 -1.0
  Nov 17, 2023 328   Hampton W 100-62 90%     2 - 1 +28.0 +22.5 +5.7
  Nov 19, 2023 103   Missouri St. L 52-56 49%     2 - 2 +0.5 -15.3 +15.7
  Nov 20, 2023 172   Fordham W 79-72 67%     3 - 2 +6.6 +2.3 +3.7
  Nov 26, 2023 122   College of Charleston L 78-84 65%     3 - 3 -5.9 +4.6 -10.5
  Dec 05, 2023 143   @ South Dakota St. L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 09, 2023 164   Cleveland St. W 74-67 75%    
  Dec 21, 2023 48   @ Oregon L 70-79 20%    
  Dec 29, 2023 61   @ St. Mary's L 61-69 24%    
  Jan 02, 2024 236   Ball St. W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 06, 2024 292   @ Eastern Michigan W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 09, 2024 112   Toledo W 79-76 62%    
  Jan 13, 2024 313   @ Central Michigan W 76-66 80%    
  Jan 16, 2024 165   @ Northern Illinois W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 20, 2024 114   Akron W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 23, 2024 220   @ Bowling Green W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 27, 2024 121   Ohio W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 30, 2024 284   Miami (OH) W 78-65 88%    
  Feb 03, 2024 312   @ Buffalo W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 06, 2024 283   Western Michigan W 77-64 89%    
  Feb 17, 2024 165   Northern Illinois W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 20, 2024 121   @ Ohio L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 24, 2024 114   @ Akron L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 27, 2024 312   Buffalo W 82-67 91%    
  Mar 02, 2024 313   Central Michigan W 79-63 91%    
  Mar 05, 2024 236   @ Ball St. W 75-70 66%    
  Mar 08, 2024 112   @ Toledo L 76-79 40%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.8 9.2 7.0 3.4 0.9 30.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.8 6.8 2.4 0.3 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.5 0.3 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.6 1.8 0.3 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.3 5.8 8.8 11.7 14.5 15.1 14.4 11.6 7.3 3.4 0.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.3 0.0
16-2 96.1% 7.0    6.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 79.5% 9.2    6.5 2.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.2% 6.8    2.9 3.0 0.8 0.0
13-5 17.4% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.3% 30.3 20.4 7.6 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 72.2% 64.2% 7.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 22.2%
17-1 3.4% 59.2% 57.1% 2.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.4 5.0%
16-2 7.3% 45.2% 45.2% 12.3 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.0
15-3 11.6% 38.0% 38.0% 12.7 0.2 1.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 7.2
14-4 14.4% 30.5% 30.5% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.4 1.0 0.1 10.0
13-5 15.1% 23.7% 23.7% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.3 0.3 11.5
12-6 14.5% 17.4% 17.4% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 11.9
11-7 11.7% 13.1% 13.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 10.2
10-8 8.8% 11.4% 11.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 7.8
9-9 5.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.3
8-10 3.3% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.1
7-11 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 1.9
6-12 0.9% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 24.1% 24.0% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.6 8.6 5.1 2.2 1.1 75.9 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.1 18.8 18.8 27.1 16.7 6.3 12.5