Buffalo
Mid-American
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.7#341
Expected Predictive Rating-15.0#354
Pace71.1#104
Improvement-0.3#203

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#331
First Shot-8.5#354
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#65
Layup/Dunks-3.1#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#293
Freethrows-1.0#257
Improvement-0.6#220

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#347
First Shot-4.7#324
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#301
Layups/Dunks-5.5#340
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#136
Freethrows+0.1#183
Improvement+0.3#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.4% 96.1% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 15.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 30 - 100 - 15
Quad 43 - 114 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 329   Fairleigh Dickinson L 86-92 53%     0 - 1 -19.5 -2.3 -16.7
  Nov 11, 2023 207   South Alabama L 56-70 24%     0 - 2 -19.3 -19.4 -0.2
  Nov 20, 2023 122   Hofstra L 68-102 8%     0 - 3 -30.9 -5.7 -24.0
  Nov 21, 2023 143   Louisiana L 60-68 10%     0 - 4 -6.5 -3.6 -4.0
  Nov 22, 2023 214   Iona L 64-89 18%     0 - 5 -27.9 -8.5 -20.0
  Nov 29, 2023 66   @ James Madison L 66-81 2%     0 - 6 -3.9 +0.7 -5.2
  Dec 02, 2023 84   St. Bonaventure L 65-80 7%     0 - 7 -10.8 -6.6 -4.1
  Dec 05, 2023 65   @ Butler L 59-72 2%     0 - 8 -1.7 -9.5 +7.9
  Dec 09, 2023 140   Western Kentucky L 65-82 14%     0 - 9 -18.0 -13.4 -2.9
  Dec 21, 2023 78   @ Richmond L 66-72 3%     0 - 10 +3.8 -2.7 +6.8
  Dec 29, 2023 251   Niagara L 63-69 30%     0 - 11 -13.2 -12.5 -0.8
  Jan 02, 2024 274   @ Central Michigan W 76-64 18%     1 - 11 1 - 0 +9.1 +7.5 +1.9
  Jan 06, 2024 302   Western Michigan L 77-82 41%     1 - 12 1 - 1 -15.3 +1.8 -17.2
  Jan 09, 2024 235   Miami (OH) L 65-86 27%     1 - 13 1 - 2 -27.4 -1.7 -28.6
  Jan 12, 2024 104   @ Akron L 59-76 4%     1 - 14 1 - 3 -9.7 -9.3 -0.4
  Jan 16, 2024 148   @ Toledo L 66-77 7%     1 - 15 1 - 4 -7.2 -10.6 +3.6
  Jan 23, 2024 258   Ball St. L 59-87 31%     1 - 16 1 - 5 -35.6 -21.4 -12.8
  Jan 27, 2024 326   @ Eastern Michigan L 65-75 31%     1 - 17 1 - 6 -17.5 -5.6 -12.8
  Jan 30, 2024 152   @ Ohio L 70-91 7%     1 - 18 1 - 7 -17.5 -7.5 -8.8
  Feb 02, 2024 170   Kent St. L 52-83 19%     1 - 19 1 - 8 -34.2 -19.7 -16.4
  Feb 06, 2024 246   @ Bowling Green L 73-87 15%     1 - 20 1 - 9 -15.4 -4.9 -9.5
  Feb 10, 2024 268   @ Georgia Southern W 82-81 OT 17%     2 - 20 -1.7 +0.0 -1.7
  Feb 13, 2024 313   @ Northern Illinois L 68-72 25%     2 - 21 1 - 10 -9.7 -5.4 -4.5
  Feb 17, 2024 104   Akron L 62-73 9%     2 - 22 1 - 11 -9.1 -7.6 -1.8
  Feb 20, 2024 326   Eastern Michigan W 78-69 51%     3 - 22 2 - 11 -4.0 +1.9 -5.5
  Feb 24, 2024 302   @ Western Michigan L 72-91 23%     3 - 23 2 - 12 -23.9 -7.7 -14.8
  Feb 27, 2024 170   @ Kent St. L 64-76 9%     3 - 24 2 - 13 -9.8 -7.2 -2.8
  Mar 02, 2024 148   Toledo L 74-85 16%    
  Mar 05, 2024 152   Ohio L 70-81 16%    
  Mar 08, 2024 313   Northern Illinois L 74-76 45%    
Projected Record 4 - 26 3 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.5 0.5 10th
11th 5.9 0.8 6.7 11th
12th 39.4 45.4 8.0 0.0 92.8 12th
Total 39.4 45.4 13.9 1.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
3-15 45.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 45.4
2-16 39.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 39.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3%
Lose Out 39.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0