Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#160
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#49
Pace76.9#30
Improvement-1.2#270

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#116
First Shot+5.6#47
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#339
Layup/Dunks+0.6#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#93
Freethrows+1.8#82
Improvement+0.2#154

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#229
First Shot-0.1#177
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#298
Layups/Dunks-4.6#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#68
Freethrows+1.6#93
Improvement-1.4#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 11.0% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 77.7% 88.2% 72.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.4% 80.9% 72.5%
Conference Champion 10.5% 13.6% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.1% 1.8%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round8.7% 10.8% 7.5%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 47 - 9
Quad 49 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 6   @ Marquette L 70-92 4%     0 - 1 -2.1 +2.6 -3.7
  Nov 11, 2023 114   Appalachian St. W 91-78 48%     1 - 1 +13.7 +9.5 +2.7
  Nov 17, 2023 204   @ Georgia St. W 70-64 46%     2 - 1 +7.2 -4.5 +11.5
  Nov 18, 2023 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 98-93 64%     3 - 1 +1.3 +7.8 -7.1
  Nov 25, 2023 192   @ DePaul W 89-79 44%     4 - 1 +11.6 +12.5 -1.4
  Nov 27, 2023 52   @ Northwestern L 67-89 13%     4 - 2 -9.5 +3.4 -14.1
  Dec 05, 2023 74   Indiana St. L 81-85 35%    
  Dec 09, 2023 239   @ Monmouth W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 21, 2023 143   Northern Iowa W 80-78 56%    
  Dec 29, 2023 35   @ Iowa L 81-96 9%    
  Jan 02, 2024 113   Akron L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 06, 2024 129   @ Ohio L 79-84 32%    
  Jan 09, 2024 302   @ Western Michigan W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 13, 2024 230   Bowling Green W 82-76 73%    
  Jan 16, 2024 108   Kent St. L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 23, 2024 120   Toledo W 84-83 52%    
  Jan 27, 2024 253   @ Ball St. W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 30, 2024 319   @ Central Michigan W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 03, 2024 294   Eastern Michigan W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 06, 2024 252   @ Miami (OH) W 79-77 57%    
  Feb 13, 2024 321   Buffalo W 85-73 86%    
  Feb 17, 2024 108   @ Kent St. L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 20, 2024 253   Ball St. W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 24, 2024 129   Ohio W 82-81 52%    
  Feb 27, 2024 120   @ Toledo L 81-87 30%    
  Mar 02, 2024 113   @ Akron L 72-79 28%    
  Mar 05, 2024 319   Central Michigan W 83-71 85%    
  Mar 08, 2024 321   @ Buffalo W 82-76 70%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.4 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.9 3.2 0.7 0.1 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.4 4.0 6.8 2.8 0.3 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.8 2.8 0.3 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 5.6 3.0 0.3 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.3 6.4 10.0 12.3 14.9 13.8 12.2 9.4 6.9 3.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 95.4% 1.5    1.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 81.8% 3.1    2.0 0.9 0.1
14-4 49.5% 3.4    1.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.7% 1.5    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 5.7 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 54.9% 33.3% 21.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.4%
17-1 0.6% 46.7% 43.0% 3.7% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6.4%
16-2 1.6% 33.6% 33.5% 0.1% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.2%
15-3 3.8% 26.2% 26.2% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.8 0.1%
14-4 6.9% 18.6% 18.6% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.6
13-5 9.4% 15.8% 15.8% 13.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 7.9
12-6 12.2% 11.0% 11.0% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.9
11-7 13.8% 7.6% 7.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 12.7
10-8 14.9% 4.9% 4.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 14.2
9-9 12.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.7
8-10 10.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.6
7-11 6.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.2
6-12 4.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.3
5-13 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 8.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.5 0.7 91.1 0.1%