Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#213
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#214
Pace64.5#304
Improvement+0.1#177

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#298
First Shot-6.6#335
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#67
Layup/Dunks+1.9#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#346
Freethrows-1.5#259
Improvement+0.2#163

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#110
First Shot+1.7#121
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#138
Layups/Dunks+0.0#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#25
Freethrows-4.3#345
Improvement+0.0#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.2% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 36.2% 55.3% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 59.3% 68.3% 56.1%
Conference Champion 3.2% 4.6% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.2% 4.5%
First Four1.1% 0.7% 1.2%
First Round2.7% 3.7% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 26.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 512 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-71 44%     0 - 1 -5.7 -14.0 +8.5
  Nov 11, 2023 252   @ Miami (OH) W 75-65 49%     1 - 1 +8.1 +1.3 +6.8
  Nov 14, 2023 23   @ Oklahoma L 54-93 6%     1 - 2 -23.1 -10.8 -12.0
  Nov 17, 2023 304   Texas San Antonio W 72-62 79%     2 - 2 -0.7 -6.7 +6.2
  Nov 21, 2023 138   McNeese St. L 48-59 35%     2 - 3 -9.3 -16.8 +5.2
  Nov 22, 2023 247   Southern Utah L 67-74 58%     2 - 4 -11.4 -7.6 -4.0
  Nov 25, 2023 167   @ Texas Arlington W 73-66 31%     3 - 4 +9.8 +0.7 +9.0
  Nov 30, 2023 25   @ Texas L 58-77 6%     3 - 5 -3.3 -6.6 +2.6
  Dec 15, 2023 141   @ Sam Houston St. L 62-69 26%    
  Dec 21, 2023 3   @ Houston L 48-73 1%    
  Dec 30, 2023 68   @ James Madison L 66-79 12%    
  Jan 04, 2024 300   Coastal Carolina W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 06, 2024 196   Marshall W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 11, 2024 240   @ Arkansas St. L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 13, 2024 286   @ Louisiana Monroe W 64-62 56%    
  Jan 17, 2024 174   Louisiana W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 20, 2024 240   Arkansas St. W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 24, 2024 189   @ Troy L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 27, 2024 174   @ Louisiana L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 01, 2024 231   South Alabama W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 03, 2024 185   Southern Miss W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 07, 2024 114   Appalachian St. L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 15, 2024 231   @ South Alabama L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 17, 2024 185   @ Southern Miss L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 22, 2024 313   @ Georgia Southern W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 24, 2024 204   @ Georgia St. L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 27, 2024 286   Louisiana Monroe W 67-59 75%    
  Mar 01, 2024 189   Troy W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.8 3.5 0.4 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.7 4.2 0.8 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 5.1 1.2 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.7 2.5 0.2 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.7 3.5 0.4 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 2.4 1.4 0.2 4.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.9 5.3 7.9 10.3 12.4 14.2 12.7 12.1 8.8 6.2 3.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 90.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 89.2% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 52.8% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1
14-4 32.8% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
13-5 10.9% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.3% 15.1% 15.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
14-4 3.3% 10.7% 10.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9
13-5 6.2% 7.9% 7.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.7
12-6 8.8% 5.5% 5.5% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 8.3
11-7 12.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 11.5
10-8 12.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.1 0.2 12.4
9-9 14.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 13.9
8-10 12.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 12.3
7-11 10.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.1
6-12 7.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.8
5-13 5.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 96.8 0.0%