Akron
Mid-American
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#114
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#108
Pace64.8#296
Improvement-1.5#307

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#136
First Shot+5.1#56
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#346
Layup/Dunks+1.2#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#63
Freethrows+1.7#84
Improvement-1.2#305

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#113
First Shot-0.2#177
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#37
Layups/Dunks-3.5#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#188
Freethrows+1.5#95
Improvement-0.3#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 25.3% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.9 12.6 13.2
.500 or above 90.7% 95.8% 86.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 94.0% 89.3%
Conference Champion 27.2% 32.1% 23.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round21.1% 25.1% 18.2%
Second Round3.7% 4.8% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 8
Quad 410 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 143   @ South Dakota St. W 81-75 47%     1 - 0 +10.3 +9.6 +0.7
  Nov 10, 2023 202   Southern Miss W 72-54 79%     2 - 0 +13.0 -1.6 +14.9
  Nov 19, 2023 218   Florida International W 77-71 73%     3 - 0 +3.3 -0.3 +3.2
  Nov 20, 2023 56   Utah St. L 62-65 29%     3 - 1 +6.2 -1.9 +8.0
  Nov 21, 2023 81   Drake L 59-79 39%     3 - 2 -13.7 -6.1 -9.6
  Nov 28, 2023 129   @ UNLV L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 05, 2023 73   Bradley L 65-66 47%    
  Dec 09, 2023 205   @ Northern Kentucky W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 21, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 68-61 74%    
  Dec 30, 2023 109   St. Bonaventure L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 02, 2024 165   @ Northern Illinois W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 06, 2024 220   Bowling Green W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 09, 2024 236   @ Ball St. W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 13, 2024 312   Buffalo W 79-64 91%    
  Jan 16, 2024 283   Western Michigan W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 20, 2024 108   @ Kent St. L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 23, 2024 121   Ohio W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 27, 2024 284   @ Miami (OH) W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 30, 2024 292   @ Eastern Michigan W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 03, 2024 112   Toledo W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 06, 2024 313   Central Michigan W 75-60 91%    
  Feb 17, 2024 312   @ Buffalo W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 20, 2024 112   @ Toledo L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 24, 2024 108   Kent St. W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 27, 2024 121   @ Ohio L 71-73 42%    
  Mar 02, 2024 165   Northern Illinois W 78-71 72%    
  Mar 05, 2024 292   Eastern Michigan W 76-62 88%    
  Mar 08, 2024 283   @ Western Michigan W 71-64 73%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.3 8.1 6.3 2.8 0.7 27.2 1st
2nd 0.5 3.6 7.7 6.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.5 4.1 0.7 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 2.8 2.0 0.3 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.1 6.7 9.3 12.2 13.9 14.9 13.8 10.3 6.6 2.8 0.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.9% 2.8    2.8 0.0
16-2 95.6% 6.3    5.7 0.7
15-3 78.5% 8.1    5.6 2.4 0.2
14-4 46.0% 6.3    2.6 2.8 0.9 0.0
13-5 17.5% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.2% 27.2 17.8 7.1 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 73.1% 59.9% 13.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 32.9%
17-1 2.8% 55.4% 50.7% 4.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 9.5%
16-2 6.6% 43.9% 43.5% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.7 0.8%
15-3 10.3% 35.1% 35.1% 12.5 0.1 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.7
14-4 13.8% 27.6% 27.6% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.0 10.0
13-5 14.9% 22.9% 22.9% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 11.5
12-6 13.9% 17.4% 17.4% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 11.5
11-7 12.2% 12.1% 12.1% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 10.8
10-8 9.3% 9.0% 9.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.5
9-9 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.2
8-10 4.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.8
7-11 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.5
6-12 1.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.4% 21.1% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.8 7.6 4.0 1.4 0.6 78.6 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 97.0% 5.8 4.5 9.0 16.4 28.4 7.5 11.9 3.0 7.5 9.0