Toledo
Mid-American
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#120
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#154
Pace72.6#89
Improvement-2.0#304

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#48
First Shot+3.3#87
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#62
Layup/Dunks+2.8#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#285
Freethrows+0.0#173
Improvement-1.4#290

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#252
First Shot-2.6#260
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#192
Layups/Dunks-7.6#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#82
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#119
Freethrows+1.7#87
Improvement-0.6#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.1% 22.5% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 84.5% 91.7% 77.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 92.6% 87.0%
Conference Champion 23.6% 27.8% 19.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round18.8% 22.3% 15.6%
Second Round2.8% 3.8% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 323   Detroit Mercy W 94-60 91%     1 - 0 +22.1 +10.9 +10.3
  Nov 11, 2023 174   Louisiana W 87-78 73%     2 - 0 +5.5 +11.2 -5.6
  Nov 14, 2023 130   @ Wright St. W 78-77 41%     3 - 0 +6.4 +8.7 -2.2
  Nov 21, 2023 42   New Mexico L 84-92 22%     3 - 1 +3.1 +3.1 +1.2
  Nov 22, 2023 78   UC Irvine L 71-77 35%     3 - 2 +0.9 +4.6 -3.8
  Nov 24, 2023 74   Indiana St. L 74-76 34%     3 - 3 +5.3 -1.9 +7.3
  Dec 02, 2023 98   George Mason L 77-86 55%     3 - 4 -7.2 +6.0 -13.4
  Dec 06, 2023 155   @ Oakland L 79-80 48%    
  Dec 09, 2023 143   Northern Iowa W 81-76 66%    
  Dec 13, 2023 196   Marshall W 86-78 76%    
  Dec 20, 2023 110   Vermont W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 23, 2023 105   @ West Virginia L 72-76 34%    
  Jan 02, 2024 129   @ Ohio L 80-82 41%    
  Jan 06, 2024 252   Miami (OH) W 83-72 84%    
  Jan 09, 2024 108   @ Kent St. L 76-80 36%    
  Jan 13, 2024 253   Ball St. W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 16, 2024 321   Buffalo W 86-71 91%    
  Jan 19, 2024 319   @ Central Michigan W 81-72 78%    
  Jan 23, 2024 160   @ Northern Illinois L 83-84 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 230   Bowling Green W 83-74 79%    
  Jan 30, 2024 302   Western Michigan W 82-68 88%    
  Feb 03, 2024 113   @ Akron L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 06, 2024 294   @ Eastern Michigan W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 17, 2024 129   Ohio W 83-79 62%    
  Feb 20, 2024 113   Akron W 76-74 59%    
  Feb 24, 2024 230   @ Bowling Green W 80-77 61%    
  Feb 27, 2024 160   Northern Illinois W 87-81 70%    
  Mar 02, 2024 321   @ Buffalo W 83-74 78%    
  Mar 05, 2024 252   @ Miami (OH) W 80-75 66%    
  Mar 08, 2024 108   Kent St. W 79-77 56%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.0 7.5 4.7 2.0 0.4 23.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.6 5.9 1.7 0.2 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.7 7.5 4.3 0.8 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.4 3.0 5.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.5 2.7 0.3 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.1 2.4 0.3 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.5 1.7 0.3 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.6 5.2 7.2 10.7 13.0 14.8 14.7 12.8 9.3 4.9 2.0 0.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
16-2 95.7% 4.7    4.2 0.5
15-3 81.4% 7.5    5.1 2.2 0.2
14-4 47.4% 6.0    2.6 2.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 16.7% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.6% 23.6 14.8 6.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 59.4% 56.3% 3.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.0%
17-1 2.0% 49.7% 47.8% 1.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 3.6%
16-2 4.9% 39.0% 39.0% 12.4 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0
15-3 9.3% 37.0% 37.0% 12.6 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.8
14-4 12.8% 26.8% 26.8% 13.0 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 9.3
13-5 14.7% 20.2% 20.2% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 11.7
12-6 14.8% 17.0% 17.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.0 12.3
11-7 13.0% 13.8% 13.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 11.2
10-8 10.7% 9.5% 9.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 9.6
9-9 7.2% 7.8% 7.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 6.7
8-10 5.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
7-11 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 2.5
6-12 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.1% 19.1% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.2 6.1 4.1 2.5 1.1 80.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 77.8% 6.9 13.0 31.5 11.1 20.4 1.9