Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#227
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#244
Pace63.9#318
Improvement-1.0#259

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#273
First Shot+0.3#172
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#346
Layup/Dunks-1.2#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#58
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#92
Freethrows-4.1#346
Improvement-0.1#189

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#155
First Shot-0.2#184
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#129
Layups/Dunks-6.6#341
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.1#3
Freethrows-2.9#317
Improvement-1.0#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 11.8% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 47.2% 73.3% 44.9%
.500 or above in Conference 61.5% 74.5% 60.4%
Conference Champion 8.5% 12.6% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 2.5% 6.2%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
First Round5.9% 10.8% 5.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 8.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 410 - 613 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 136   @ Seattle L 68-71 22%     0 - 1 +2.0 -1.5 +3.6
  Nov 16, 2023 140   @ California W 63-60 24%     1 - 1 +7.5 -2.2 +10.0
  Nov 20, 2023 287   Green Bay L 53-54 OT 74%     1 - 2 -10.9 -20.2 +9.3
  Nov 22, 2023 195   UC Riverside W 69-68 56%     2 - 2 -3.5 +1.1 -4.5
  Nov 26, 2023 139   Long Beach St. L 69-75 43%     2 - 3 -7.3 -3.2 -4.3
  Dec 05, 2023 57   @ Washington L 63-78 8%    
  Dec 19, 2023 247   Southern Utah W 74-70 65%    
  Dec 22, 2023 272   @ Cal St. Northridge W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 28, 2023 274   @ Idaho St. W 64-63 50%    
  Dec 30, 2023 117   @ Weber St. L 56-65 20%    
  Jan 03, 2024 159   Oral Roberts L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 06, 2024 134   @ South Dakota St. L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 11, 2024 241   Northern Arizona W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 13, 2024 270   Northern Colorado W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 20, 2024 166   Montana L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 22, 2024 274   Idaho St. W 67-61 71%    
  Jan 25, 2024 269   @ Sacramento St. L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 161   @ Portland St. L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 01, 2024 217   Eastern Washington W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 03, 2024 335   Idaho W 71-60 85%    
  Feb 08, 2024 270   @ Northern Colorado L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 10, 2024 241   @ Northern Arizona L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 17, 2024 166   @ Montana L 62-68 30%    
  Feb 22, 2024 161   Portland St. L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 24, 2024 269   Sacramento St. W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 29, 2024 335   @ Idaho W 68-63 67%    
  Mar 02, 2024 217   @ Eastern Washington L 71-75 38%    
  Mar 04, 2024 117   Weber St. L 59-62 40%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 3.8 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.4 3.9 0.6 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 6.4 3.7 0.4 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 3.8 0.4 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.4 2.3 0.4 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.5 1.4 0.3 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.3 7.1 9.5 11.2 13.8 13.2 11.5 8.9 6.6 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 96.1% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 86.8% 2.0    1.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 57.8% 2.3    1.3 0.9 0.1
13-5 30.4% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0
12-6 9.7% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 4.7 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.3% 50.3% 50.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.9% 38.8% 38.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.3% 26.8% 26.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7
14-4 4.0% 21.4% 21.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.1
13-5 6.6% 16.3% 16.3% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 5.5
12-6 8.9% 10.1% 10.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 8.0
11-7 11.5% 8.0% 8.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 10.6
10-8 13.2% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.2 0.6 12.4
9-9 13.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 13.3
8-10 11.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 10.9
7-11 9.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.4
6-12 7.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.0
5-13 5.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.5 93.3 0.0%