St. Thomas
Summit League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#166
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#215
Pace60.9#348
Improvement+0.2#181

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#155
First Shot+3.1#93
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#305
Layup/Dunks+1.9#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#13
Freethrows-2.1#312
Improvement+1.0#128

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#208
First Shot-1.7#233
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#126
Layups/Dunks-2.1#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#196
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows-1.2#273
Improvement-0.8#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.6% 29.8% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round28.5% 29.7% 24.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 79.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 413 - 616 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 100   @ California L 66-71 22%     0 - 1 +2.9 +7.2 -5.1
  Nov 10, 2023 260   Idaho St. W 54-53 76%     1 - 1 -6.7 -13.9 +7.4
  Nov 17, 2023 335   Cal Poly L 60-61 86%     1 - 2 -12.7 -0.6 -12.3
  Nov 18, 2023 186   @ California Baptist L 62-66 45%     1 - 3 -2.8 +0.7 -4.2
  Nov 19, 2023 250   Portland St. W 76-70 66%     2 - 3 +1.5 +8.9 -6.9
  Nov 25, 2023 227   @ Green Bay L 51-64 51%     2 - 4 -13.6 -19.1 +4.7
  Dec 01, 2023 302   @ Western Michigan W 65-51 67%     3 - 4 +9.1 -3.8 +14.1
  Dec 06, 2023 243   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-71 74%     4 - 4 -2.8 +5.1 -7.4
  Dec 10, 2023 300   @ Chicago St. W 66-50 67%     5 - 4 +11.1 +4.1 +9.9
  Dec 14, 2023 10   @ Marquette L 79-84 4%     5 - 5 +14.5 +15.1 -0.5
  Dec 29, 2023 245   @ North Dakota W 70-45 55%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +23.6 +4.0 +22.7
  Dec 31, 2023 234   UMKC W 77-56 72%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +14.7 +13.1 +4.4
  Jan 03, 2024 311   @ Idaho W 75-67 70%     8 - 5 +2.4 +7.9 -4.6
  Jan 06, 2024 320   Sacramento St. W 63-50 87%     9 - 5 +0.8 -2.8 +6.1
  Jan 11, 2024 156   South Dakota St. L 80-81 58%     9 - 6 2 - 1 -3.3 +6.7 -10.0
  Jan 13, 2024 266   @ Oral Roberts W 87-76 59%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +8.5 +10.3 -2.0
  Jan 18, 2024 310   @ South Dakota L 73-74 OT 70%     10 - 7 3 - 2 -6.6 -3.8 -2.8
  Jan 25, 2024 256   North Dakota St. W 79-66 76%     11 - 7 4 - 2 +5.6 +8.5 -1.7
  Jan 27, 2024 245   North Dakota L 64-74 74%     11 - 8 4 - 3 -16.8 -10.2 -7.2
  Feb 01, 2024 264   @ Nebraska Omaha L 65-69 59%     11 - 9 4 - 4 -6.5 -1.0 -6.0
  Feb 03, 2024 234   @ UMKC W 71-56 53%     12 - 9 5 - 4 +14.1 +8.5 +7.6
  Feb 08, 2024 266   Oral Roberts W 85-63 77%     13 - 9 6 - 4 +14.0 +12.6 +3.0
  Feb 10, 2024 278   @ Denver L 77-94 61%     13 - 10 6 - 5 -20.1 -5.6 -13.7
  Feb 17, 2024 310   South Dakota W 83-80 84%     14 - 10 7 - 5 -8.0 +7.8 -15.6
  Feb 22, 2024 256   @ North Dakota St. L 50-64 57%     14 - 11 7 - 6 -16.0 -15.6 -2.9
  Feb 24, 2024 156   @ South Dakota St. L 72-77 37%     14 - 12 7 - 7 -1.9 +4.0 -6.2
  Feb 29, 2024 264   Nebraska Omaha W 88-61 77%     15 - 12 8 - 7 +19.1 +9.6 +9.5
  Mar 02, 2024 278   Denver W 80-72 79%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 10.9 10.9 2nd
3rd 41.6 41.6 3rd
4th 12.2 26.5 38.7 4th
5th 8.8 8.8 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 21.0 79.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 79.0% 29.8% 29.8% 14.9 0.2 4.7 16.2 2.5 55.4
8-8 21.0% 24.2% 24.2% 15.1 0.0 0.4 3.6 1.1 15.9
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.2 5.0 19.8 3.6 71.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 79.0% 29.8% 14.9 0.2 5.9 20.5 3.2
Lose Out 21.0% 24.2% 15.1 0.0 1.7 17.3 5.2