Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#269
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#232
Pace62.3#333
Improvement+2.7#65

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#299
First Shot-4.1#294
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#232
Layup/Dunks-3.0#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#319
Freethrows+1.4#75
Improvement+1.6#102

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#185
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#297
Layups/Dunks+1.0#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#58
Freethrows+1.1#111
Improvement+1.1#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 5.7% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
First Round4.2% 4.9% 2.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 12 - 5
Quad 414 - 616 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 254   @ Texas San Antonio L 68-78 OT 37%     0 - 1 -12.0 -15.3 +4.3
  Nov 08, 2023 51   @ SMU L 53-90 6%     0 - 2 -24.3 -18.5 -2.7
  Nov 17, 2023 263   Southern W 88-80 OT 59%     1 - 2 +0.1 +0.9 -2.0
  Nov 21, 2023 304   @ Valparaiso L 66-73 48%     1 - 3 -12.0 -6.5 -5.8
  Nov 24, 2023 12   @ Illinois L 52-84 2%     1 - 4 -13.1 -17.5 +4.8
  Nov 27, 2023 27   @ Wisconsin L 49-71 4%     1 - 5 -6.5 -5.4 -6.7
  Dec 03, 2023 310   South Dakota L 68-70 70%     1 - 6 -13.0 -12.1 -0.9
  Dec 09, 2023 227   @ Green Bay W 68-59 32%     2 - 6 +8.4 +9.2 +1.2
  Dec 20, 2023 337   @ Central Arkansas W 65-54 64%     3 - 6 +1.9 -12.0 +13.9
  Dec 31, 2023 291   @ SIU Edwardsville W 78-70 45%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +3.8 +10.8 -6.2
  Jan 04, 2024 352   Southeast Missouri St. W 68-61 87%     5 - 6 2 - 0 -10.4 -3.2 -6.4
  Jan 06, 2024 356   Lindenwood W 68-57 88%     6 - 6 3 - 0 -7.3 -4.0 -2.0
  Jan 11, 2024 220   @ Tennessee Martin W 73-64 31%     7 - 6 4 - 0 +8.6 +0.5 +8.3
  Jan 13, 2024 315   @ Eastern Illinois W 63-60 53%     8 - 6 5 - 0 -3.1 -1.3 -1.4
  Jan 20, 2024 296   Tennessee St. L 57-58 67%     8 - 7 5 - 1 -11.0 -10.8 -0.3
  Jan 25, 2024 328   @ Southern Indiana W 73-68 60%     9 - 7 6 - 1 -2.9 +0.4 -3.1
  Jan 27, 2024 139   @ Morehead St. L 50-64 17%     9 - 8 6 - 2 -9.5 -14.6 +3.3
  Feb 01, 2024 356   @ Lindenwood W 79-71 76%     10 - 8 7 - 2 -4.9 +12.3 -16.1
  Feb 03, 2024 352   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 76-55 73%     11 - 8 8 - 2 +9.1 +7.2 +3.9
  Feb 08, 2024 211   Arkansas Little Rock L 60-63 50%     11 - 9 8 - 3 -8.5 -12.1 +3.4
  Feb 10, 2024 220   Tennessee Martin L 59-62 51%     11 - 10 8 - 4 -8.8 -14.5 +5.6
  Feb 15, 2024 327   @ Tennessee Tech W 62-55 59%     12 - 10 9 - 4 -0.8 -4.7 +4.9
  Feb 17, 2024 296   @ Tennessee St. W 68-61 46%     13 - 10 10 - 4 +2.5 +0.0 +3.0
  Feb 22, 2024 139   Morehead St. L 57-78 33%     13 - 11 10 - 5 -21.9 -11.1 -12.9
  Feb 24, 2024 328   Southern Indiana W 82-76 77%     14 - 11 11 - 5 -7.4 +0.6 -8.2
  Feb 29, 2024 315   Eastern Illinois W 70-66 72%     15 - 11 12 - 5 -7.6 -4.4 -3.1
  Mar 02, 2024 291   SIU Edwardsville W 68-64 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 3.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 22.0 22.0 3rd
4th 33.8 41.2 75.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 33.8 66.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1    0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 66.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 62.4
12-6 33.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 32.6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.5 95.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 66.2% 5.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.9
Lose Out 33.8% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.8 2.9