St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#99
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#112
Pace64.7#301
Improvement+0.6#132

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#112
First Shot+3.0#93
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#235
Layup/Dunks+1.1#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#62
Freethrows-0.2#186
Improvement+0.3#147

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#102
First Shot+0.8#145
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#57
Layups/Dunks-2.9#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#141
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+0.4#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 10.0% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.8
.500 or above 89.3% 92.0% 78.2%
.500 or above in Conference 70.9% 73.2% 61.6%
Conference Champion 10.5% 11.3% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 2.1% 3.4%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
First Round9.2% 9.6% 7.4%
Second Round2.3% 2.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 37 - 410 - 10
Quad 49 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 190   Longwood W 73-69 81%     1 - 0 -0.4 +3.9 -4.0
  Nov 11, 2023 199   Canisius L 67-70 81%     1 - 1 -7.7 -7.8 +0.1
  Nov 16, 2023 86   Oklahoma St. W 66-64 45%     2 - 1 +8.1 +5.3 +3.0
  Nov 17, 2023 17   Auburn L 60-77 18%     2 - 2 -2.4 -2.8 -0.2
  Nov 22, 2023 306   Bucknell W 67-61 92%     3 - 2 -4.9 -5.6 +1.2
  Nov 25, 2023 252   Miami (OH) W 90-60 88%     4 - 2 +22.1 +19.5 +4.8
  Dec 02, 2023 321   @ Buffalo W 80-65 84%     5 - 2 +9.2 +3.3 +5.8
  Dec 06, 2023 293   @ Niagara W 72-63 81%    
  Dec 09, 2023 350   Siena W 76-55 98%    
  Dec 16, 2023 13   Florida Atlantic L 66-77 15%    
  Dec 22, 2023 280   Binghamton W 76-62 91%    
  Dec 30, 2023 113   Akron W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 03, 2024 93   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 06, 2024 90   @ Richmond L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 13, 2024 170   Fordham W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 17, 2024 173   Rhode Island W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 20, 2024 98   @ George Mason L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 23, 2024 85   @ Duquesne L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 26, 2024 96   Saint Joseph's W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 30, 2024 93   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 02, 2024 60   @ Dayton L 61-68 28%    
  Feb 07, 2024 133   Massachusetts W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 10, 2024 85   Duquesne W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 14, 2024 170   @ Fordham W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 17, 2024 123   Davidson W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 21, 2024 200   @ La Salle W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 24, 2024 133   @ Massachusetts L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 27, 2024 119   Loyola Chicago W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 06, 2024 162   @ George Washington W 75-73 55%    
  Mar 09, 2024 188   Saint Louis W 77-68 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.3 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 5.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.9 2.8 0.4 9.6 4th
5th 0.5 4.1 4.0 0.4 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.1 1.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.8 2.1 0.2 7.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 3.5 0.4 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 4.1 1.2 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.7 2.1 0.1 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 2.6 0.5 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.0 0.1 3.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.5 2.9 5.3 7.9 10.7 12.3 13.5 13.4 11.5 8.7 6.3 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 98.0% 1.4    1.2 0.3
15-3 80.8% 2.6    1.9 0.7 0.1
14-4 53.3% 3.3    1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 23.7% 2.1    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 5.7 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 77.9% 20.8% 57.1% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 72.1%
16-2 1.5% 49.3% 27.9% 21.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 29.7%
15-3 3.3% 28.3% 19.7% 8.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.4 10.7%
14-4 6.3% 18.6% 16.0% 2.6% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 5.1 3.1%
13-5 8.7% 13.1% 12.5% 0.6% 11.9 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.5 0.7%
12-6 11.5% 12.5% 12.4% 0.1% 12.1 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.1%
11-7 13.4% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 12.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 12.2 0.0%
10-8 13.5% 6.5% 6.5% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.6
9-9 12.3% 5.5% 5.5% 13.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.6
8-10 10.7% 4.0% 4.0% 14.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.2
7-11 7.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
6-12 5.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 5.1
5-13 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.9
4-14 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.5% 8.4% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 90.5 1.3%