Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#261
Expected Predictive Rating-10.4#311
Pace65.5#282
Improvement+0.1#174

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#295
First Shot-7.6#345
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#34
Layup/Dunks-4.4#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#284
Freethrows-3.8#344
Improvement-0.7#249

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#201
First Shot-0.4#189
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#233
Layups/Dunks+0.4#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#321
Freethrows+5.0#5
Improvement+0.9#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 16.0
.500 or above 19.7% 21.5% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 35.8% 37.3% 25.0%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.7% 6.2%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 87.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 12
Quad 410 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 53   @ St. John's L 74-90 6%     0 - 1 -3.5 +6.6 -10.5
  Nov 13, 2023 85   @ Duquesne L 63-85 10%     0 - 2 -12.9 -5.0 -8.7
  Nov 15, 2023 48   @ Nebraska L 63-84 5%     0 - 3 -8.0 -6.2 -1.6
  Nov 20, 2023 273   Rider W 55-48 65%     1 - 3 -2.2 -20.8 +18.6
  Nov 29, 2023 91   @ Yale L 71-79 10%     1 - 4 +0.5 +3.3 -3.0
  Dec 02, 2023 291   Wagner L 59-60 68%     1 - 5 -11.1 -9.7 -1.5
  Dec 06, 2023 358   Stonehill W 75-63 88%    
  Dec 09, 2023 197   Bryant L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 13, 2023 229   Norfolk St. W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 17, 2023 343   @ Army W 65-61 64%    
  Dec 21, 2023 16   @ Michigan St. L 53-76 2%    
  Dec 29, 2023 232   Brown W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 04, 2024 210   @ Northeastern L 66-72 28%    
  Jan 06, 2024 107   College of Charleston L 69-75 28%    
  Jan 11, 2024 219   @ Towson L 58-64 30%    
  Jan 13, 2024 315   @ William & Mary W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 18, 2024 156   @ Delaware L 63-72 22%    
  Jan 22, 2024 100   Hofstra L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 25, 2024 239   Monmouth W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 116   UNC Wilmington L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 01, 2024 100   @ Hofstra L 62-75 12%    
  Feb 03, 2024 210   Northeastern L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 08, 2024 297   @ Elon L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 10, 2024 317   @ Campbell W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 15, 2024 327   Hampton W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 17, 2024 239   @ Monmouth L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 22, 2024 361   N.C. A&T W 80-66 90%    
  Feb 24, 2024 315   William & Mary W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 29, 2024 124   @ Drexel L 55-66 17%    
  Mar 02, 2024 156   Delaware L 66-69 41%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.4 2.3 2.7 0.7 6.0 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 4.0 1.2 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 4.9 2.0 0.2 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 5.9 3.3 0.3 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 5.5 4.3 0.6 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.2 5.2 1.2 0.1 12.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.0 1.4 0.1 11.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.9 1.4 0.2 9.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.4 6.9 9.7 13.5 14.6 14.0 11.9 9.2 6.6 4.4 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 91.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 67.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 37.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 9.9% 9.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 15.8% 15.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.1% 8.2% 8.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
13-5 2.0% 7.9% 7.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
12-6 4.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.5 0.1 0.1 4.2
11-7 6.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.1 0.2 6.3
10-8 9.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.0
9-9 11.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
8-10 14.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.9
7-11 14.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.5
6-12 13.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-13 9.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.7
4-14 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 98.7 0.0%