Illinois
Big Ten
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#31
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#73
Pace73.4#77
Improvement+0.2#159

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#63
First Shot+1.0#152
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#22
Layup/Dunks+2.2#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#113
Freethrows-4.6#353
Improvement+0.3#146

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#15
First Shot+5.6#34
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#42
Layups/Dunks+4.7#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#42
Freethrows+4.6#9
Improvement-0.2#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.5% 2.4% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 6.4% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 15.0% 21.4% 8.6%
Top 6 Seed 30.5% 40.2% 20.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.5% 75.4% 55.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.6% 73.0% 52.3%
Average Seed 6.7 6.3 7.4
.500 or above 86.8% 93.2% 80.4%
.500 or above in Conference 70.1% 81.1% 58.9%
Conference Champion 5.7% 8.6% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 2.8%
First Four5.4% 4.8% 6.0%
First Round62.9% 73.0% 52.6%
Second Round40.2% 48.6% 31.6%
Sweet Sixteen18.2% 23.1% 13.3%
Elite Eight8.2% 10.5% 5.8%
Final Four3.4% 4.5% 2.3%
Championship Game1.4% 1.9% 0.9%
National Champion0.5% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Rutgers (Away) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 336   Eastern Illinois W 80-52 99%     1 - 0 +13.5 +0.8 +12.4
  Nov 10, 2023 134   Oakland W 64-53 90%     2 - 0 +9.9 -3.0 +14.2
  Nov 14, 2023 6   Marquette L 64-71 40%     2 - 1 +8.3 -2.1 +10.3
  Nov 17, 2023 315   Valparaiso W 87-64 98%     3 - 1 +11.5 +0.5 +8.2
  Nov 19, 2023 319   Southern W 88-60 98%     4 - 1 +16.5 +2.7 +11.2
  Nov 24, 2023 329   Western Illinois W 84-52 98%     5 - 1 +18.8 +4.2 +14.3
  Dec 02, 2023 54   @ Rutgers W 66-65 50%    
  Dec 05, 2023 18   Florida Atlantic L 73-75 42%    
  Dec 09, 2023 8   @ Tennessee L 65-72 24%    
  Dec 17, 2023 139   Colgate W 79-65 91%    
  Dec 22, 2023 93   Missouri W 76-69 75%    
  Dec 29, 2023 317   Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-64 98%    
  Jan 02, 2024 62   Northwestern W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 05, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 67-78 15%    
  Jan 11, 2024 17   Michigan St. W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 14, 2024 59   Maryland W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 18, 2024 55   @ Michigan W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 21, 2024 54   Rutgers W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 24, 2024 62   @ Northwestern W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 27, 2024 68   Indiana W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 30, 2024 27   @ Ohio St. L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 04, 2024 52   Nebraska W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 10, 2024 17   @ Michigan St. L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 13, 2024 55   Michigan W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 17, 2024 59   @ Maryland W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 21, 2024 90   @ Penn St. W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 24, 2024 37   Iowa W 84-80 64%    
  Feb 28, 2024 128   Minnesota W 77-64 87%    
  Mar 02, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 67-69 42%    
  Mar 05, 2024 1   Purdue L 70-75 32%    
  Mar 10, 2024 37   @ Iowa L 81-83 44%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 4.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.8 4.0 1.2 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.7 4.2 1.1 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.3 1.1 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.1 1.6 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.1 0.3 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.7 5.4 7.6 10.1 11.6 12.8 12.2 11.2 9.1 6.2 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 87.2% 0.7    0.7 0.1
17-3 71.7% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 43.3% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1
15-5 18.0% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.8% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.2% 99.7% 13.0% 86.8% 4.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 9.1% 99.6% 13.0% 86.6% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 11.2% 97.6% 8.2% 89.4% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.4%
12-8 12.2% 93.2% 8.9% 84.3% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.8 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 92.5%
11-9 12.8% 79.9% 6.5% 73.3% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 0.9 0.1 2.6 78.5%
10-10 11.6% 58.6% 4.7% 53.8% 9.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.8 56.5%
9-11 10.1% 28.7% 4.3% 24.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 25.5%
8-12 7.6% 9.4% 3.9% 5.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.9 5.8%
7-13 5.4% 4.2% 3.7% 0.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 0.5%
6-14 3.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
5-15 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 65.5% 7.7% 57.8% 6.7 1.5 2.6 4.6 6.3 7.2 8.3 8.6 7.8 6.6 6.1 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 34.5 62.6%