Wisconsin
Big Ten
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#35
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#51
Pace62.3#335
Improvement+0.8#102

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#35
First Shot+3.9#79
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#65
Layup/Dunks+4.3#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#200
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement+0.3#155

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#37
First Shot+2.5#99
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#11
Layups/Dunks+2.5#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#206
Freethrows+0.7#148
Improvement+0.6#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.9% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 6.0% 2.1%
Top 4 Seed 14.2% 21.4% 9.7%
Top 6 Seed 30.6% 42.6% 23.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.4% 77.8% 57.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.0% 76.0% 55.0%
Average Seed 6.8 6.3 7.3
.500 or above 79.0% 89.2% 72.6%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 71.7% 60.8%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.9% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.4% 3.0%
First Four6.5% 5.4% 7.1%
First Round62.3% 75.0% 54.4%
Second Round39.4% 50.0% 32.7%
Sweet Sixteen16.9% 22.5% 13.5%
Elite Eight6.9% 9.3% 5.3%
Final Four2.8% 3.9% 2.1%
Championship Game1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Marquette (Home) - 38.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 26 - 311 - 12
Quad 33 - 013 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 213   Arkansas St. W 105-76 94%     1 - 0 +23.5 +14.3 +5.1
  Nov 10, 2023 8   Tennessee L 70-80 43%     1 - 1 +4.0 +7.2 -3.1
  Nov 14, 2023 47   @ Providence L 59-72 46%     1 - 2 +0.1 -2.9 +2.4
  Nov 17, 2023 272   Robert Morris W 78-68 96%     2 - 2 +1.1 +4.9 -3.4
  Nov 20, 2023 45   Virginia W 65-41 56%     3 - 2 +34.5 +19.1 +22.2
  Nov 22, 2023 91   SMU W 69-61 74%     4 - 2 +13.3 +9.8 +4.7
  Nov 27, 2023 329   Western Illinois W 71-49 98%     5 - 2 +8.8 +9.9 +4.5
  Dec 02, 2023 6   Marquette L 69-72 38%    
  Dec 05, 2023 17   @ Michigan St. L 61-67 29%    
  Dec 09, 2023 2   @ Arizona L 69-79 17%    
  Dec 14, 2023 230   Jacksonville St. W 74-56 96%    
  Dec 22, 2023 342   Chicago St. W 80-53 99%    
  Jan 02, 2024 37   Iowa W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 52   Nebraska W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 10, 2024 27   @ Ohio St. L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 13, 2024 62   Northwestern W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 16, 2024 90   @ Penn St. W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 19, 2024 68   Indiana W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 23, 2024 128   @ Minnesota W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 26, 2024 17   Michigan St. L 63-64 50%    
  Feb 01, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 04, 2024 1   Purdue L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 07, 2024 55   @ Michigan L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 10, 2024 54   @ Rutgers L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 13, 2024 27   Ohio St. W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 17, 2024 37   @ Iowa L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 20, 2024 59   Maryland W 65-59 71%    
  Feb 27, 2024 68   @ Indiana W 69-68 54%    
  Mar 02, 2024 31   Illinois W 69-67 58%    
  Mar 07, 2024 54   Rutgers W 65-59 68%    
  Mar 10, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 62-74 15%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.1 3.6 0.8 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.8 4.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.3 1.3 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.5 1.6 0.1 9.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.2 0.2 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.0 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.5 6.5 8.7 10.7 12.3 13.0 12.5 9.8 7.3 4.9 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 95.5% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 72.5% 1.0    0.7 0.4 0.0
16-4 44.5% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.3% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 2.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.0% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.8 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.9% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.7 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.3% 99.9% 10.2% 89.7% 4.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 9.8% 99.6% 8.8% 90.8% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.6 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 12.5% 97.8% 6.9% 90.8% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.6%
11-9 13.0% 91.3% 6.5% 84.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.0 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 1.1 90.7%
10-10 12.3% 74.2% 5.6% 68.6% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.3 0.3 3.2 72.7%
9-11 10.7% 35.6% 4.1% 31.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.9 32.8%
8-12 8.7% 10.0% 3.3% 6.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.8 7.0%
7-13 6.5% 2.7% 2.1% 0.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3 0.6%
6-14 4.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.1 0.1 4.4
5-15 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.4% 6.6% 58.9% 6.8 1.1 2.5 4.8 5.9 7.5 8.8 8.8 7.8 5.6 5.6 5.3 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 34.6 63.0%