Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#296
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#266
Pace69.9#141
Improvement-3.0#305

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#303
First Shot-2.9#265
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#309
Layup/Dunks+1.2#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#284
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#271
Freethrows+0.3#158
Improvement-2.9#323

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#240
First Shot+0.9#143
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#354
Layups/Dunks+0.9#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#120
Freethrows-4.0#354
Improvement-0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.8% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 24.8% 100.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.4% 1.6%
First Round1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 413 - 613 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2023 297   @ Portland W 75-65 40%     1 - 0 +5.4 -2.5 +7.8
  Nov 17, 2023 56   @ Oregon L 67-92 5%     1 - 1 -13.0 -1.3 -11.4
  Nov 24, 2023 230   Mercer L 59-60 35%     1 - 2 -4.3 -11.7 +7.2
  Nov 25, 2023 289   SE Louisiana W 91-77 48%     2 - 2 +7.1 +16.1 -8.8
  Nov 29, 2023 340   @ Alabama A&M L 83-85 OT 60%     2 - 3 -11.9 -2.2 -9.5
  Dec 02, 2023 221   Austin Peay W 69-65 44%     3 - 3 -1.8 -7.8 +6.1
  Dec 10, 2023 160   @ Lipscomb L 71-78 17%     3 - 4 -4.1 -6.4 +2.5
  Dec 13, 2023 118   @ Liberty L 52-74 11%     3 - 5 -15.8 -13.7 -4.2
  Dec 19, 2023 52   @ Indiana St. L 69-90 4%     3 - 6 -8.4 -2.6 -4.9
  Dec 28, 2023 220   Tennessee Martin L 75-91 44%     3 - 7 0 - 1 -21.8 -7.5 -13.0
  Dec 30, 2023 211   Arkansas Little Rock W 90-82 43%     4 - 7 1 - 1 +2.5 +8.2 -6.1
  Jan 04, 2024 328   @ Southern Indiana L 67-69 53%     4 - 8 1 - 2 -9.9 -9.7 -0.2
  Jan 06, 2024 139   @ Morehead St. L 68-78 14%     4 - 9 1 - 3 -5.5 +0.0 -5.9
  Jan 13, 2024 356   Lindenwood W 75-60 85%     5 - 9 2 - 3 -3.3 -8.0 +4.1
  Jan 18, 2024 327   Tennessee Tech W 85-53 72%     6 - 9 3 - 3 +18.7 +17.2 +5.6
  Jan 20, 2024 269   @ Western Illinois W 58-57 33%     7 - 9 4 - 3 -1.7 -5.4 +3.8
  Jan 27, 2024 315   @ Eastern Illinois W 64-60 46%     8 - 9 5 - 3 -2.1 -6.4 +4.5
  Feb 01, 2024 139   Morehead St. L 49-68 27%     8 - 10 5 - 4 -19.9 -18.7 -3.5
  Feb 03, 2024 328   Southern Indiana W 79-74 72%     9 - 10 6 - 4 -8.4 +0.0 -8.4
  Feb 08, 2024 356   @ Lindenwood W 65-55 71%     10 - 10 7 - 4 -2.9 -7.6 +5.5
  Feb 10, 2024 352   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 77-74 67%     11 - 10 8 - 4 -8.9 +6.8 -15.5
  Feb 13, 2024 327   @ Tennessee Tech L 50-70 52%     11 - 11 8 - 5 -27.8 -23.2 -5.7
  Feb 17, 2024 269   Western Illinois L 61-68 54%     11 - 12 8 - 6 -15.2 -8.7 -7.0
  Feb 22, 2024 315   Eastern Illinois W 78-73 66%     12 - 12 9 - 6 -6.6 +3.5 -9.9
  Feb 24, 2024 291   SIU Edwardsville W 76-71 59%     13 - 12 10 - 6 -4.6 -8.2 +3.1
  Feb 29, 2024 211   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 60-85 24%     13 - 13 10 - 7 -25.0 -15.3 -9.3
  Mar 02, 2024 220   @ Tennessee Martin L 74-81 25%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 75.2 24.8 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 75.2 24.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 24.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.1 0.6 24.1
10-8 75.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5 73.7
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 2.1 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.3 2.5
Lose Out 75.2% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.0