Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#209
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#113
Pace66.7#254
Improvement+0.9#95

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#265
First Shot-6.6#336
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#24
Layup/Dunks-5.2#332
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#81
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement-0.7#264

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#144
First Shot-0.5#187
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#92
Layups/Dunks-1.4#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#62
Freethrows-5.0#352
Improvement+1.6#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.2% 33.9% 24.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 79.0% 87.9% 69.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 93.8% 88.7%
Conference Champion 33.2% 38.0% 28.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four3.6% 3.0% 4.3%
First Round27.3% 32.3% 22.3%
Second Round1.4% 1.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 22 - 6
Quad 414 - 516 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 9   @ Alabama L 73-105 3%     0 - 1 -12.1 +2.4 -13.0
  Nov 10, 2023 1   @ Purdue L 57-87 2%     0 - 2 -6.0 -1.7 -5.4
  Nov 14, 2023 257   Mercer W 74-66 71%     1 - 2 -0.1 -2.1 +2.0
  Nov 17, 2023 90   @ Penn St. L 51-74 16%     1 - 3 -14.5 -22.4 +9.8
  Nov 20, 2023 210   @ Bellarmine W 64-51 39%     2 - 3 +13.7 +5.4 +11.2
  Nov 29, 2023 260   @ Austin Peay W 66-65 51%    
  Dec 03, 2023 183   Chattanooga W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 10, 2023 242   @ North Alabama L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 19, 2023 68   @ Indiana L 62-75 11%    
  Dec 31, 2023 340   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 04, 2024 304   Tennessee Tech W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 06, 2024 225   Tennessee St. W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 11, 2024 336   @ Eastern Illinois W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 13, 2024 238   @ SIU Edwardsville L 63-64 46%    
  Jan 18, 2024 247   Tennessee Martin W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 339   @ Southern Indiana W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 27, 2024 329   Western Illinois W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 01, 2024 225   @ Tennessee St. L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 03, 2024 304   @ Tennessee Tech W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 08, 2024 238   SIU Edwardsville W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 10, 2024 336   Eastern Illinois W 72-60 86%    
  Feb 15, 2024 271   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 17, 2024 247   @ Tennessee Martin L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 20, 2024 339   Southern Indiana W 76-63 87%    
  Feb 22, 2024 329   @ Western Illinois W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 29, 2024 340   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-65 86%    
  Mar 02, 2024 345   Lindenwood W 76-63 87%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.8 7.7 9.3 7.2 3.3 1.0 33.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.8 7.3 5.3 1.7 0.2 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.4 5.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.3 1.2 0.1 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.1 6.3 9.1 11.5 13.7 14.4 13.5 11.0 7.4 3.3 1.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 3.3    3.2 0.0
16-2 96.9% 7.2    6.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 84.1% 9.3    6.8 2.3 0.1
14-4 56.7% 7.7    4.1 3.0 0.5 0.0
13-5 26.3% 3.8    1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1
12-6 6.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.2% 33.2 23.1 7.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 78.4% 78.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 3.3% 70.7% 70.7% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
16-2 7.4% 59.7% 59.7% 14.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.1 0.1 3.0
15-3 11.0% 51.4% 51.4% 14.5 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.4 0.4 5.4
14-4 13.5% 38.8% 38.8% 14.9 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.1 8.3
13-5 14.4% 29.4% 29.4% 15.2 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.4 10.2
12-6 13.7% 21.6% 21.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.5 10.8
11-7 11.5% 14.7% 14.7% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 9.8
10-8 9.1% 12.0% 12.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 8.0
9-9 6.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 5.8
8-10 4.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.2 3.9
7-11 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 2.4
6-12 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 29.2% 29.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 7.9 10.4 7.5 70.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 96.2% 11.1 5.7 5.7 52.8 22.6 9.4