South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#310
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#303
Pace70.8#113
Improvement+2.3#81

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#223
First Shot-2.5#254
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#116
Layup/Dunks+0.9#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#203
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement+3.1#41

Defense
Total Defense-6.6#351
First Shot-6.9#360
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#157
Layups/Dunks-4.2#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#345
Freethrows+1.1#112
Improvement-0.8#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.3% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 89.0% 55.4% 100.0%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.0%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 81 - 9
Quad 48 - 109 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 325   UT Rio Grande Valley W 100-79 66%     1 - 0 +8.4 +7.6 -2.2
  Nov 14, 2023 293   @ DePaul L 60-72 35%     1 - 1 -16.4 -11.3 -5.8
  Nov 17, 2023 358   VMI W 85-81 77%     2 - 1 -12.1 -3.2 -9.4
  Nov 18, 2023 171   Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-93 23%     2 - 2 -12.5 +6.7 -19.0
  Nov 26, 2023 238   Air Force L 57-58 43%     2 - 3 -7.5 -18.3 +10.8
  Dec 03, 2023 269   @ Western Illinois W 70-68 30%     3 - 3 -0.7 -1.3 +0.6
  Dec 09, 2023 217   Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-73 40%     4 - 3 -0.7 +8.9 -9.3
  Dec 16, 2023 81   @ UC Irvine L 78-121 6%     4 - 4 -33.2 +4.5 -33.5
  Dec 19, 2023 217   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 76-96 22%     4 - 5 -20.3 +4.6 -24.9
  Dec 21, 2023 257   @ San Diego L 66-69 27%     4 - 6 -5.0 -6.8 +1.7
  Dec 29, 2023 256   @ North Dakota St. W 75-66 27%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +7.0 +1.1 +6.0
  Dec 31, 2023 264   Nebraska Omaha L 51-67 49%     5 - 7 1 - 1 -23.9 -23.1 -2.1
  Jan 03, 2024 136   Eastern Washington L 79-93 24%     5 - 8 -14.8 +3.8 -18.7
  Jan 06, 2024 165   @ Montana L 63-82 15%     5 - 9 -16.4 -13.8 -2.2
  Jan 11, 2024 266   @ Oral Roberts L 66-84 29%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -20.5 -13.0 -6.5
  Jan 18, 2024 166   St. Thomas W 74-73 OT 30%     6 - 10 2 - 2 -1.9 +0.0 -1.9
  Jan 20, 2024 156   South Dakota St. L 55-73 28%     6 - 11 2 - 3 -20.3 -19.2 -1.4
  Jan 25, 2024 278   @ Denver L 110-111 2OT 31%     6 - 12 2 - 4 -4.1 +5.1 -8.9
  Jan 27, 2024 234   @ UMKC L 57-81 24%     6 - 13 2 - 5 -24.9 -13.3 -12.2
  Feb 01, 2024 245   North Dakota L 81-95 44%     6 - 14 2 - 6 -20.8 +4.4 -25.3
  Feb 04, 2024 156   @ South Dakota St. L 67-70 14%     6 - 15 2 - 7 +0.1 -1.1 +1.1
  Feb 08, 2024 278   Denver W 92-86 OT 51%     7 - 15 3 - 7 -2.5 +2.9 -5.9
  Feb 15, 2024 264   @ Nebraska Omaha L 84-91 29%     7 - 16 3 - 8 -9.5 +9.6 -19.1
  Feb 17, 2024 166   @ St. Thomas L 80-83 16%     7 - 17 3 - 9 -0.5 +12.8 -13.5
  Feb 22, 2024 234   UMKC L 78-82 43%     7 - 18 3 - 10 -10.3 -4.9 -5.0
  Feb 24, 2024 266   Oral Roberts W 77-76 49%     8 - 18 4 - 10 -7.0 +0.5 -7.4
  Feb 29, 2024 256   North Dakota St. W 88-68 47%     9 - 18 5 - 10 +12.6 +21.2 -6.2
  Mar 02, 2024 245   @ North Dakota L 73-80 25%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 19.6 19.6 7th
8th 33.5 5.2 38.7 8th
9th 41.7 41.7 9th
Total 75.2 24.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10 24.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 24.5
5-11 75.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.8 74.5
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.8% 1.3% 16.0 1.3
Lose Out 75.2% 1.0% 16.0 1.0