Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.8 #266
Expected Predictive Rating -5.2 #245
Pace 70.8 #131
Improvement -5.5 #354

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #300 D C- D+ B D-
Defense #207 D+ C+ C+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #195 1.19 #136 +0.2 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #14 0.75 #176 +4.5 #20
Three Pointers 30% #355 0.72 #365 -10.1 #364
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #326 -5.5 #327
Freethrows 0.34 #59 75% #100 0.26 #48
Second Chance 29.4% #220 1.03 #204 0.30 #208
Turnovers 18.0% #285
Total Offense -4.7 #300

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #192 1.11 #118 +0.8 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #225 0.76 #173 +0.7 #139
Three Pointers 43% #129 1.20 #359 -4.7 #341
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #285 -3.3 #286
Freethrows 0.34 #300 71% #129 0.24 #285
Second Chance 28.9% #114 1.02 #137 0.29 #114
Turnovers 17.0% #142
Total Defense -1.1 #207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #339 0.5% #211
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.8% #315 5.9% #294
Possession Length 17.8 #223 16.7 #84
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #189 0.21 #300
Improvement -6.5 #364 +1.0 #117

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.1% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.2
.500 or above 7.0% 12.1% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 22.8% 36.3% 9.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 410 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 187 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 26% +3  0 - 1 -5 +9 B+ B- F -14 D D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 9 90 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 9% -2  0 - 2 +5 +6 C- B B+ -0 D A+ A
 Thu, Nov 13 294 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 44% -6  0 - 3 -9 -3 F A+ A- -7 F B B+
 Sat, Nov 22 351 North Florida W 92 - 83 75% -0  1 - 3 -4 +5 C+ B- D+ -9 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 228 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 42% +17  2 - 3 +6 +15 B- C+ B- -7 F A- C
 Wed, Dec 3 243 @Radford W 82 - 75 34% +6  3 - 3 +5 +1 F D+ D+ +4 A- B- D
 Sat, Dec 6 40 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 3% -5  3 - 4 -8 -4 D A- F -3 C C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 8 294 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 67% -1  4 - 4 -2 -7 D+ D F +5 C- A- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 64 Mississippi L 67 - 71 9% -3  4 - 5 +5 +2 B- C D +2 C+ B+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 310 Louisiana W 62 - 54 72% +2  5 - 5 1 - 0 -4 -13 F F+ A+ +9 A- A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 158 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 39% -3  5 - 6 1 - 1 -10 +9 C+ B- D+ -18 B- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 48 @LSU L 62 - 90 4% -14  5 - 7 -14 -6 F D- B- -8 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 75% +11  6 - 7 2 - 1 +1 +1 B D F -1 C C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 310 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 50% +2  7 - 7 3 - 1 +1 +2 B- D F -1 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 270 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 63% -0  8 - 7 4 - 1 +1 -3 D C- D +3 B- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 361 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 89% -0  9 - 7 5 - 1 -9 -10 F C- B +1 C B- B+
 Wed, Jan 14 120 @Troy L 65 - 91 14% -12  9 - 8 5 - 2 -20 -6 F B+ F -14 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 270 @Texas St. L 67 - 74 40% -3  9 - 9 5 - 3 -10 -7 F F+ D- -3 D- B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 275 @Georgia St. L 62 - 69 41% -2  9 - 10 5 - 4 -10 -12 F F C+ +2 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 234 @Coastal Carolina L 67 - 85 33% -12  9 - 11 5 - 5 -19 -2 C- D C+ -18 F F+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 197 Appalachian St. L 63 - 70 48% -2  9 - 12 5 - 6 -12 -8 D- D F+ -5 D+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 194 James Madison L 72 - 73 49%
 Wed, Feb 4 166 @Marshall L 72 - 80 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 143 Kent St. L 77 - 81 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 190 South Alabama L 68 - 69 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 120 Troy L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 225 Old Dominion W 74 - 73 54%
 Tue, Feb 24 158 @Arkansas St. L 75 - 84 21%
 Fri, Feb 27 190 @South Alabama L 65 - 72 27%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -6 -5 D C- D+ -1 D+ C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 0.3 2.5 4th
5th 0.6 2.5 0.1 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 3.0 1.1 4.1 6th
7th 0.4 5.9 0.3 6.6 7th
8th 3.7 4.3 8.0 8th
9th 0.7 10.0 0.8 11.5 9th
10th 0.1 4.9 8.8 0.0 13.8 10th
11th 2.4 12.1 2.9 17.4 11th
12th 1.5 11.0 8.9 0.2 21.6 12th
13th 3.5 5.5 0.7 9.7 13th
14th 14th
Total 5.0 19.0 27.2 25.9 14.7 6.7 1.2 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 27.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 15.9% 15.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.2% 9.4% 9.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1
10-8 6.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.1 0.0 6.6
9-9 14.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.1 0.1 14.5
8-10 25.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 25.7
7-11 27.2% 27.2
6-12 19.0% 19.0
5-13 5.0% 5.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.4 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.5%