Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#200
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#205
Pace69.0#196
Improvement+1.4#81

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#185
First Shot-0.8#192
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#186
Layup/Dunks+3.4#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#359
Freethrows+1.2#104
Improvement-1.9#315

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#241
First Shot-3.8#304
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#61
Layups/Dunks+0.5#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#345
Freethrows+0.0#178
Improvement+3.3#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.4% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 52.3% 57.2% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.7% 75.4% 48.9%
Conference Champion 8.7% 10.0% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.6% 3.1%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round6.5% 7.4% 2.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 82.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 412 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 216 @Buffalo L 79-85 41%     0 - 1 -6.4 +8.5 -15.3
  Sun, Nov 9 87 @South Carolina L 79-83 OT 14%     0 - 2 +5.1 +5.7 -0.3
  Thu, Nov 13 285 @Grambling St. L 70-75 54%     0 - 3 -8.7 -2.0 -6.7
  Sat, Nov 22 344 North Florida W 92-83 80%     1 - 3 -2.5 +9.4 -12.1
  Sun, Nov 23 252 Tennessee Martin W 70-60 59%     2 - 3 +4.9 +14.2 -6.8
  Wed, Dec 3 254 @Radford W 82-75 48%     3 - 3 +4.8 +2.0 +2.4
  Sat, Dec 6 33 @Miami (FL) L 64-88 5%     3 - 4 -7.8 -3.3 -3.2
  Mon, Dec 8 285 Grambling St. W 68-60 75%     4 - 4 -1.7 -6.1 +4.5
  Sat, Dec 13 60 Mississippi L 67-71 13%     4 - 5 +5.2 +2.3 +2.7
  Thu, Dec 18 325 Louisiana W 72-62 82%    
  Sat, Dec 20 153 Arkansas St. L 78-79 49%    
  Mon, Dec 29 34 @LSU L 66-85 4%    
  Thu, Jan 1 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 325 @Louisiana W 69-65 64%    
  Thu, Jan 8 241 Texas St. W 73-68 66%    
  Sat, Jan 10 357 Louisiana Monroe W 83-68 91%    
  Wed, Jan 14 143 @Troy L 70-77 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 241 @Texas St. L 70-71 45%    
  Thu, Jan 22 335 @Georgia St. W 76-71 67%    
  Sat, Jan 24 245 @Coastal Carolina L 73-74 46%    
  Thu, Jan 29 233 Appalachian St. W 69-65 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 183 James Madison W 75-73 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 160 @Marshall L 73-79 30%    
  Thu, Feb 12 180 South Alabama W 71-69 56%    
  Sat, Feb 14 143 Troy L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 215 Old Dominion W 77-73 62%    
  Tue, Feb 24 153 @Arkansas St. L 76-82 29%    
  Fri, Feb 27 180 @South Alabama L 68-72 34%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.3 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 4.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.5 4.3 4.6 0.6 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 5.7 1.5 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.2 2.9 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.9 3.9 0.4 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.1 1.2 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.5 1.6 0.1 6.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.2 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.0 8.4 11.3 13.5 14.8 13.6 11.2 8.5 5.3 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 97.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 84.9% 2.1    1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0
14-4 57.6% 3.0    1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 22.2% 1.9    0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 57.4% 57.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.9% 33.6% 33.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.5% 29.6% 29.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.8
14-4 5.3% 24.2% 24.2% 14.3 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 4.0
13-5 8.5% 17.2% 17.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 7.0
12-6 11.2% 10.8% 10.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 10.0
11-7 13.6% 6.7% 6.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 12.7
10-8 14.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 14.5
9-9 13.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.4
8-10 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.3
7-11 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
6-12 5.0% 5.0
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.0 0.7 93.4 0.0%