Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#75
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#96
Pace72.7#94
Improvement+1.4#85

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#103
First Shot+0.8#149
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#59
Layup/Dunks+6.1#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#258
Freethrows+0.4#147
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#56
First Shot+3.6#64
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#111
Layups/Dunks+3.2#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#291
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement+1.2#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.0% 32.8% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 5.4% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.3 10.8 11.5
.500 or above 88.4% 95.6% 86.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 96.9% 94.3%
Conference Champion 32.6% 39.5% 30.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.0% 2.0% 0.7%
First Round25.6% 31.9% 23.6%
Second Round6.7% 9.9% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.3% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Home) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 45 - 9
Quad 38 - 313 - 12
Quad 47 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 95 San Francisco W 76-70 69%     1 - 0 +8.5 +0.0 +8.1
  Tue, Nov 11 60 @Mississippi L 77-83 33%     1 - 1 +6.2 +13.5 -7.5
  Sun, Nov 16 141 UNLV L 78-92 81%     1 - 2 -15.6 -5.4 -8.4
  Thu, Nov 20 7 Purdue L 71-80 12%     1 - 3 +11.6 +8.1 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 21 42 Wake Forest L 68-69 35%     1 - 4 +10.7 +3.3 +7.4
  Wed, Nov 26 129 Southern Illinois W 74-58 80%     2 - 4 +15.0 +1.0 +13.9
  Wed, Dec 3 247 New Orleans W 86-70 92%     3 - 4 +8.2 +7.4 +0.7
  Sat, Dec 6 32 Baylor W 78-71 40%     4 - 4 +17.3 +6.0 +11.1
  Sat, Dec 13 10 @Louisville L 73-99 10%     4 - 5 -4.2 +6.5 -10.1
  Wed, Dec 17 11 Vanderbilt L 76-84 24%    
  Sat, Dec 20 80 @Mississippi St. L 74-77 40%    
  Mon, Dec 22 265 Alabama St. W 84-68 94%    
  Wed, Dec 31 145 North Texas W 72-62 82%    
  Sat, Jan 3 208 @Rice W 76-68 77%    
  Sun, Jan 11 117 @Florida Atlantic W 78-77 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 158 Temple W 83-72 83%    
  Sun, Jan 18 286 Texas San Antonio W 83-65 94%    
  Wed, Jan 21 83 @Tulsa L 76-78 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 100 @Wichita St. L 71-72 49%    
  Thu, Jan 29 117 Florida Atlantic W 81-74 75%    
  Sun, Feb 1 206 Tulane W 83-69 89%    
  Thu, Feb 5 119 @UAB W 78-76 56%    
  Sun, Feb 8 194 Charlotte W 77-64 88%    
  Thu, Feb 12 145 @North Texas W 69-65 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 46 @Utah St. L 72-79 28%    
  Thu, Feb 19 86 @South Florida L 78-80 44%    
  Sun, Feb 22 119 UAB W 81-73 75%    
  Thu, Feb 26 100 Wichita St. W 75-69 70%    
  Sun, Mar 1 280 @East Carolina W 79-68 84%    
  Thu, Mar 5 86 South Florida W 81-77 65%    
  Sun, Mar 8 206 @Tulane W 80-72 75%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.9 9.8 7.1 3.3 0.8 32.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.8 8.5 6.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.7 4.1 0.7 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.1 0.4 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 5.2 8.3 11.8 14.6 16.5 15.0 12.0 7.4 3.3 0.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.7% 3.3    3.3 0.1
16-2 95.7% 7.1    6.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 81.5% 9.8    7.0 2.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 52.4% 7.9    3.6 3.3 0.9 0.1
13-5 20.2% 3.3    0.7 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.6% 32.6 21.6 8.3 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 75.2% 48.2% 27.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 52.1%
17-1 3.3% 59.8% 48.2% 11.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.3 22.5%
16-2 7.4% 48.8% 42.6% 6.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 3.8 10.8%
15-3 12.0% 40.1% 37.4% 2.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.1 1.2 0.0 7.2 4.3%
14-4 15.0% 31.0% 29.9% 1.1% 11.4 0.0 0.2 2.5 1.9 0.1 10.4 1.6%
13-5 16.5% 25.9% 25.6% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 12.2 0.3%
12-6 14.6% 20.2% 20.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.6 0.1%
11-7 11.8% 15.1% 15.1% 12.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 10.1
10-8 8.3% 9.6% 9.6% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.5
9-9 5.2% 7.2% 7.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8
8-10 2.8% 4.9% 4.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
7-11 1.4% 3.6% 3.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.6% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.0% 24.5% 1.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.8 11.7 9.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 74.0 2.1%