SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #261
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 #251
Pace 62.6 #336
Improvement +0.7 #152

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #327 D C- C- D+ F+
Defense #149 B C- C- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #324 1.02 #327 -5.8 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #16 0.70 #264 +3.3 #40
Three Pointers 36% #289 1.01 #199 -2.8 #284
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #322 -5.3 #322
Freethrows 0.28 #268 68% #311 0.19 #295
Second Chance 29.0% #225 1.03 #207 0.30 #221
Turnovers 17.4% #250
Total Offense -6.0 #327

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #258 1.04 #46 +3.7 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.82 #284 -0.6 #231
Three Pointers 44% #102 0.91 #52 +1.1 #143
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #58 +4.2 #58
Freethrows 0.33 #273 74% #251 0.24 #284
Second Chance 34.2% #314 1.01 #127 0.35 #252
Turnovers 15.1% #257
Total Defense +0.5 #149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #351 -0.4% #133
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #294 -7.8% #50
Possession Length 19.1 #336 17.7 #238
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #340 0.20 #274
Improvement +0.6 #146 +0.0 #196

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 13.7% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 81.2% 90.9% 72.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 95.5% 81.3%
Conference Champion 8.5% 14.1% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.3% 3.6% 3.0%
First Round9.3% 12.2% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 48.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 22 - 3
Quad 415 - 1016 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 341 @Texas San Antonio W 77 - 60 62% +3  1 - 0 +8 -2 D- A- F +10 A A- F
 Mon, Nov 10 196 Indiana St. L 55 - 64 49% -6  1 - 1 -14 -21 F F F +7 A+ D+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 152 @Drake W 61 - 59 20% +5  2 - 1 +5 -1 C- D C +7 A+ F D+
 Mon, Nov 17 39 @Wisconsin L 69 - 94 3% -12  2 - 2 -9 +7 C- A+ C -17 D+ C F
 Fri, Nov 21 347 @Air Force L 63 - 77 63% -8  2 - 3 -23 -10 F+ D D- -13 B+ F F
 Sun, Nov 23 318 Alabama St. W 83 - 68 65% +2  3 - 3 +6 +10 C- C- A+ -3 A- C- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 348 @North Florida W 72 - 63 64% +1  4 - 3 -0 -6 D- D D+ +6 A- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 273 Western Michigan L 73 - 83 64% -8  4 - 4 -19 -4 D D- A+ -15 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 312 @Eastern Illinois L 72 - 76 OT 51% -0  4 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -1 B F D+ -9 F D- B
 Mon, Dec 22 360 @Western Illinois W 66 - 61 74% -3  5 - 5 1 - 1 -7 -11 F A+ F +4 C- B- B
 Thu, Jan 1 322 Southern Indiana W 59 - 55 75% +6  6 - 5 2 - 1 -9 -13 F B+ F +5 B D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 299 Morehead St. L 72 - 73 70% +2  6 - 6 2 - 2 -12 -1 C- C- C -11 F B A+
 Tue, Jan 6 250 Lindenwood W 66 - 62 59% +2  7 - 6 3 - 2 -4 -9 F D+ F+ +5 A+ D- C
 Thu, Jan 8 279 Arkansas Little Rock L 70 - 73 66% +6  7 - 7 3 - 3 -13 +0 D- A- F -13 C+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 231 @Tennessee Martin L 59 - 65 33% +9  7 - 8 3 - 4 -7 -6 F+ D- A+ -2 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 246 @Southeast Missouri St. W 68 - 55 35% +16  8 - 8 4 - 4 +11 +3 C+ C C- +9 A- A+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 229 Tennessee St. W 74 - 66 55% +2  9 - 8 5 - 4 +1 +5 B C- D- -3 A D F
 Sat, Jan 24 338 Tennessee Tech W 62 - 58 80% +9  10 - 8 6 - 4 -10 -4 F C- B- -5 B C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 299 @Morehead St. L 67 - 68 48%
 Sat, Jan 31 322 @Southern Indiana W 65 - 64 54%
 Tue, Feb 3 250 @Lindenwood L 68 - 72 37%
 Sat, Feb 7 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 68 43%
 Thu, Feb 12 246 Southeast Missouri St. W 69 - 67 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 231 Tennessee Martin W 64 - 63 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 338 @Tennessee Tech W 68 - 65 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 229 @Tennessee St. L 69 - 74 32%
 Thu, Feb 26 360 Western Illinois W 70 - 57 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 312 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 59 72%
Totals 15 - 13 11 - 9 -6 -6 D C- C- +1 B C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 4.0 2.6 0.4 8.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 6.8 3.8 0.4 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.7 7.3 6.2 0.6 14.7 3rd
4th 0.2 4.6 9.5 1.1 15.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 9.5 3.7 0.0 15.3 5th
6th 0.9 6.6 6.3 0.3 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.0 6.3 1.2 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.0 1.1 0.1 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.1 8.1 16.0 22.4 22.3 15.6 8.4 3.0 0.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 96.7% 0.4    0.4 0.1
15-5 86.8% 2.6    1.6 0.9 0.1
14-6 48.1% 4.0    1.1 2.0 0.8 0.1
13-7 9.2% 1.4    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 3.2 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.5% 41.3% 41.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
15-5 3.0% 30.8% 30.8% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 2.1
14-6 8.4% 28.0% 28.0% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.6 6.0
13-7 15.6% 18.7% 18.7% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.4 12.7
12-8 22.3% 11.1% 11.1% 15.9 0.3 2.1 19.8
11-9 22.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.1 1.0 21.3
10-10 16.0% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.5 15.5
9-11 8.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.9
8-12 3.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
7-13 0.6% 0.6
6-14 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 15.7 89.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.3 15.8 42.1 42.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%