Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.8 #228
Expected Predictive Rating +1.5 #139
Pace 64.7 #289
Improvement -1.6 #255

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #280 D+ D+ C F C-
Defense #153 C D C- C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #356 1.03 #325 -7.5 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.86 #53 +0.3 #163
Three Pointers 52% #16 0.95 #268 +4.0 #55
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #274 -3.2 #275
Freethrows 0.23 #352 64% #362 0.15 #362
Second Chance 23.2% #344 1.12 #80 0.26 #297
Turnovers 16.3% #167
Total Offense -4.1 #280

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.33 #348 +1.9 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #100 0.71 #99 -0.2 #199
Three Pointers 47% #39 0.95 #93 -1.4 #249
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #170 +0.3 #170
Freethrows 0.34 #304 69% #35 0.24 #259
Second Chance 41.5% #364 0.93 #43 0.38 #325
Turnovers 15.8% #216
Total Defense +0.4 #153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #248 -1.6% #61
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.4% #272 1.0% #204
Possession Length 20.9 #364 18.0 #278
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #356 0.23 #335
Improvement -1.5 #264 -0.1 #195

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 28.3% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 64.0% 69.3% 45.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.5%
First Round25.7% 27.9% 17.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 4
Quad 418 - 520 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 125 @UNLV W 86 - 81 20% -18  1 - 0 +10 +4 F C C +5 A F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 127 @Bradley W 78 - 67 20% -9  2 - 0 +16 +4 A+ C- F +12 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 105 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 15% -19  2 - 1 -7 -2 B+ C- F -4 D+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 22 346 Prairie View W 69 - 68 78% -6  3 - 1 -11 -8 F+ F F -3 B C- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 266 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 58% -17  3 - 2 -16 +1 B- F+ C+ -20 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 247 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 65% -7  4 - 2 +9 +2 C F D +8 A- C- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 317 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 79% -12  5 - 2 -2 -1 F D- F -1 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Dec 10 130 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 21% -15  5 - 3 -24 -13 F F F -11 F D B
 Thu, Dec 18 231 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 39% -15  5 - 4 0 - 1 -8 -3 F F+ F -4 F+ B- C-
 Sat, Dec 20 338 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 67% -7  6 - 4 1 - 1 +16 +19 A- F B- -1 F+ B A+
 Thu, Jan 1 359 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 90% -15  7 - 4 2 - 1 -11 -6 F F B- -4 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 312 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 79% -8  8 - 4 3 - 1 -8 -7 F C+ F -1 C+ A- C+
 Thu, Jan 8 300 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 55% -15  9 - 4 4 - 1 +3 +9 D C F+ -5 D- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 324 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 63% -17  10 - 4 5 - 1 +10 +9 C+ F+ F +3 B+ F+ A
 Thu, Jan 15 263 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 68% -9  11 - 4 6 - 1 -3 -2 F D- F -0 B C F
 Sat, Jan 17 238 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 64% +4  12 - 4 7 - 1 +7 -6 D+ C- F +13 A+ B+ A
 Tue, Jan 20 251 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 43% -20  12 - 5 7 - 2 -18 -18 F D- F -2 C+ D B
 Thu, Jan 29 312 @Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 59% -4  13 - 5 8 - 2 +2 +7 A+ F F -5 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 359 @Western Illinois W 70 - 62 78%
 Tue, Feb 3 281 Arkansas Little Rock W 71 - 65 72%
 Thu, Feb 5 324 Southern Indiana W 71 - 62 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 300 Morehead St. W 73 - 66 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 238 @Lindenwood L 71 - 73 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 263 @SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 64 46%
 Tue, Feb 17 251 Southeast Missouri St. W 72 - 68 64%
 Thu, Feb 19 281 @Arkansas Little Rock W 69 - 68 49%
 Thu, Feb 26 338 Tennessee Tech W 75 - 64 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 231 Tennessee St. W 74 - 71 62%
Totals 20 - 8 15 - 5 -4 -4 D+ D+ C +0 C D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 12.1 22.0 17.6 8.6 2.0 64.0 1st
2nd 0.4 6.1 8.9 2.0 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 5.5 0.8 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.4 3.4 1.1 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 1.5 1.5 3.0 5th
6th 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.0 7.8 14.4 21.9 24.0 17.6 8.6 2.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.0    2.0
17-3 100.0% 8.6    8.6
16-4 99.8% 17.6    16.9 0.6
15-5 91.7% 22.0    14.4 6.9 0.6
14-6 55.2% 12.1    3.2 6.0 2.5 0.4
13-7 12.1% 1.8    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 64.0% 64.0 45.2 14.0 3.6 1.0 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.0% 47.5% 47.5% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0
17-3 8.6% 39.9% 39.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.5 0.1 5.2
16-4 17.6% 35.6% 35.6% 14.9 0.1 1.3 4.1 0.8 11.3
15-5 24.0% 32.2% 32.2% 15.2 0.0 0.7 4.6 2.3 16.3
14-6 21.9% 24.2% 24.2% 15.4 0.2 2.6 2.5 16.6
13-7 14.4% 13.6% 13.6% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.2 12.5
12-8 7.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.1 0.4 7.3
11-9 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.9
10-10 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 15.1 73.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 13.5 4.8 45.0 45.0 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%