Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.0 #347
Expected Predictive Rating -12.0 #337
Pace 63.3 #319
Improvement -4.1 #329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #357 D+ D F+ D+ B-
Defense #267 C- C- C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #97 1.16 #172 +1.8 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #268 0.58 #353 -3.1 #325
Three Pointers 42% #155 0.91 #310 -1.7 #241
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #264 -2.9 #264
Freethrows 0.30 #182 63% #364 0.19 #286
Second Chance 22.3% #351 1.10 #103 0.25 #326
Turnovers 20.4% #355
Total Offense -9.0 #357

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #217 1.25 #296 -1.3 #226
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #155 0.78 #227 -0.5 #219
Three Pointers 41% #182 1.03 #204 -0.4 #195
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #257 -2.2 #257
Freethrows 0.31 #199 72% #185 0.22 #197
Second Chance 31.5% #224 1.06 #211 0.33 #224
Turnovers 15.5% #237
Total Defense -3.0 #267

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #82 -0.3% #139
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.2% #299 4.5% #266
Possession Length 19.9 #359 15.6 #9
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #349 0.19 #236
Improvement -2.5 #309 -1.6 #280

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 93.1% 82.5% 95.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 90 - 14
Quad 30 - 91 - 23
Quad 44 - 54 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 78 @Belmont L 63 - 79 3% -4  0 - 1 -6 -3 A+ C- F -3 B A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 172 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 22% -10  0 - 2 -24 -20 D D+ F -3 F+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 227 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 31% -0  0 - 3 -11 -3 D C C- -8 D+ C- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 91 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 9% -10  0 - 4 -12 -11 F+ D C- -2 D+ B+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 318 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 52% -2  1 - 4 -10 -10 C- A F -1 C+ A C
 Fri, Nov 21 261 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 37% +8  2 - 4 +5 +5 D A- C+ +1 C+ B- C+
 Sun, Nov 23 340 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 60% +2  3 - 4 -2 +5 A D- C- -8 C D- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 197 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 26% -5  3 - 5 -23 -17 F D+ F+ -9 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 287 South Dakota L 63 - 80 33% -11  3 - 6 -24 -15 F F D -10 D- C- B
 Wed, Dec 3 123 Pacific L 65 - 80 15% -9  3 - 7 -16 +2 C+ B D- -20 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 178 @Navy L 56 - 61 11% +0  3 - 8 -3 -8 D- D- C- +4 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 41 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 1% -8  3 - 9 0 - 1 -8 -0 C B- D- -10 D+ F C+
 Tue, Dec 30 116 Wyoming L 56 - 68 13% -5  3 - 10 0 - 2 -12 -17 C F F +4 A F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 125 @UNLV L 39 - 67 6% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -23 -29 F F D+ +4 A F C
 Tue, Jan 6 38 Utah St. L 62 - 99 3% -20  3 - 12 0 - 4 -27 -3 C C B- -25 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 43 New Mexico L 49 - 91 4% -21  3 - 13 0 - 5 -33 -17 B F F -17 D B C-
 Tue, Jan 13 249 @San Jose St. L 62 - 70 17% -4  3 - 14 0 - 6 -10 -4 D D- F -7 D+ C- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 74 Nevada L 66 - 81 7% -10  3 - 15 0 - 7 -10 -4 A F F+ -7 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 20 102 @Colorado St. L 52 - 81 4% -17  3 - 16 0 - 8 -21 -16 F F F -7 C- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 58 @Boise St. L 54 - 96 2% -19  3 - 17 0 - 9 -30 -5 C D+ D- -30 F F F
 Sat, Jan 31 149 Fresno St. L 62 - 71 19%
 Tue, Feb 3 75 @Grand Canyon L 54 - 77 2%
 Sat, Feb 7 41 San Diego St. L 56 - 77 2%
 Tue, Feb 10 102 Colorado St. L 59 - 73 10%
 Sat, Feb 14 149 @Fresno St. L 59 - 74 8%
 Tue, Feb 17 43 @New Mexico L 56 - 83 1%
 Sat, Feb 21 125 UNLV L 65 - 76 15%
 Tue, Feb 24 249 San Jose St. L 64 - 68 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 116 @Wyoming L 59 - 77 5%
 Tue, Mar 3 75 Grand Canyon L 57 - 74 6%
 Sat, Mar 7 74 @Nevada L 55 - 78 2%
Totals 4 - 27 1 - 19 -12 -9 D+ D F+ -3 C- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 3.2 8.2 4.7 1.1 0.1 17.2 11th
12th 33.8 35.3 11.5 1.8 0.1 82.5 12th
Total 33.8 38.5 19.6 6.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 6.5% 6.5
2-18 19.6% 19.6
1-19 38.5% 38.5
0-20 33.8% 33.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 33.0%