Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 #73
Expected Predictive Rating +8.1 #73
Pace 70.1 #149
Improvement +2.5 #77

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #97 C+ C+ B- C- C-
Defense #61 A- B- D B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #234 1.28 #66 +1.1 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #146 0.83 #81 +1.4 #104
Three Pointers 41% #174 0.95 #263 -1.2 #221
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #137 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 0.29 #242 70% #263 0.20 #249
Second Chance 32.7% #123 1.09 #117 0.35 #104
Turnovers 14.9% #89
Total Offense +3.1 #97

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.07 #73 +6.0 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #12 0.78 #218 -3.5 #359
Three Pointers 41% #199 0.82 #5 +4.4 #31
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #18 +6.8 #19
Freethrows 0.26 #59 73% #219 0.19 #69
Second Chance 25.7% #32 1.06 #213 0.27 #77
Turnovers 13.9% #327
Total Defense +4.7 #61

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #233 -3.3% #14
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #126 -10.5% #30
Possession Length 16.5 #96 17.6 #215
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #120 0.14 #94
Improvement -0.4 #203 +2.9 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 7.3% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.7% 7.2% 2.1%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 10.5
.500 or above 19.2% 34.7% 12.3%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 13.9% 3.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 3.5% 15.7%
First Four2.2% 3.9% 1.4%
First Round2.5% 5.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.8% 1.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 64 - 12
Quad 24 - 57 - 17
Quad 32 - 110 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 330 North Alabama W 86 - 62 97% +5  1 - 0 +10 +4 C+ F+ A- +6 B C+ B-
 Mon, Nov 10 9 Iowa St. L 80 - 96 12% -11  1 - 1 +4 +12 A A+ F -6 B- C- D
 Sat, Nov 15 265 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 93% +5  2 - 1 -2 -3 C- C- D +0 B+ C+ F+
 Thu, Nov 20 87 Kansas St. L 77 - 98 55% -8  2 - 2 -14 +2 B- F C- -15 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 43 New Mexico L 78 - 80 35% -2  2 - 3 +10 +10 B C A+ -0 B+ C+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 220 New Orleans W 81 - 78 OT 90% -4  3 - 3 -4 -6 D B+ F+ +2 B+ B+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 37 SMU L 81 - 87 OT 38% +1  3 - 4 +5 +1 D C- A+ +5 A+ F+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 111 @Georgia Tech W 85 - 73 55% +8  4 - 4 +19 +12 B- A+ D+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 98 San Francisco L 62 - 65 60% -5  4 - 5 +2 -0 D+ C A+ +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 104 Utah W 82 - 74 62% -6  5 - 5 +13 +9 A D- A- +4 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 227 LIU Brooklyn W 87 - 83 91% +3  6 - 5 -3 +9 C B+ A+ -12 C- B- F
 Sat, Dec 20 100 Memphis W 71 - 66 71% +4  7 - 5 +7 +3 B- D+ C- +4 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 318 Alabama St. W 94 - 56 96% +18  8 - 5 +26 +16 B- A+ B- +10 A+ A C
 Sat, Jan 3 33 @Texas W 101 - 98 OT 19% +1  9 - 5 1 - 0 +20 +17 B- A+ B- +2 B+ B- C-
 Wed, Jan 7 54 Oklahoma W 72 - 53 53% +5  10 - 5 2 - 0 +26 +5 D- A+ B- +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 27 @Kentucky L 68 - 92 17% -4  10 - 6 2 - 1 -6 +6 B+ B- F -12 D+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 16 Alabama L 82 - 97 24% -5  10 - 7 2 - 2 +0 +6 C- C A+ -5 B+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 64 Mississippi L 67 - 68 58% +2  10 - 8 2 - 3 +5 -2 F+ C A+ +7 A- A F
 Wed, Jan 21 30 @Texas A&M L 68 - 88 18% -10  10 - 9 2 - 4 -2 +3 B F B- -5 A A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 12 Vanderbilt L 56 - 88 22% -20  10 - 10 2 - 5 -16 -13 F+ D+ F+ -1 C+ B- C-
 Wed, Jan 28 47 @LSU W 80 - 66 27% +18  11 - 10 3 - 5 +28 +15 A+ A- F +13 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 56 @Missouri L 72 - 77 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 21 Arkansas L 78 - 84 28%
 Wed, Feb 11 20 Tennessee L 69 - 75 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 64 @Mississippi L 69 - 73 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 25 Auburn L 75 - 80 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 90 @South Carolina L 71 - 72 45%
 Wed, Feb 25 16 @Alabama L 78 - 91 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 56 Missouri W 75 - 74 54%
 Tue, Mar 3 5 @Florida L 68 - 84 6%
 Sat, Mar 7 29 Georgia L 80 - 84 35%
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 12 +8 +3 C+ C+ B- +5 A- B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.2 2.8 8th
9th 0.4 2.6 1.5 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 3.2 4.3 0.6 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 2.4 8.0 2.7 0.1 13.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.4 9.5 6.9 0.4 18.2 12th
13th 0.9 8.2 10.0 1.3 0.0 20.4 13th
14th 0.3 4.3 9.2 2.5 0.1 16.4 14th
15th 1.4 5.6 2.9 0.1 10.0 15th
16th 1.8 1.8 0.3 3.9 16th
Total 3.5 12.5 22.0 24.7 19.9 10.9 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 89.5% 89.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 89.5%
10-8 1.3% 65.1% 0.4% 64.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 65.0%
9-9 4.9% 36.8% 0.1% 36.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.0 3.1 36.8%
8-10 10.9% 6.3% 0.3% 6.0% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 10.2 6.0%
7-11 19.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.8 0.6%
6-12 24.7% 24.7
5-13 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 22.0
4-14 12.5% 12.5
3-15 3.5% 3.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 0.1% 3.7% 10.3 96.3 3.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.5%