Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.2#11
Expected Predictive Rating+21.7#11
Pace74.0#63
Improvement-1.0#250

Offense
Total Offense+12.0#5
First Shot+9.9#8
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#60
Layup/Dunks+6.3#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#56
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement-1.9#314

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#32
First Shot+3.6#65
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#25
Layups/Dunks+5.8#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#145
Freethrows-2.4#318
Improvement+0.9#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 2.0% 0.7%
#1 Seed 11.8% 13.5% 6.4%
Top 2 Seed 32.6% 36.1% 21.4%
Top 4 Seed 71.0% 74.4% 60.2%
Top 6 Seed 89.8% 91.7% 83.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.9% 99.3% 97.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.7% 99.1% 97.4%
Average Seed 3.6 3.5 4.2
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 92.5% 88.2%
Conference Champion 26.6% 28.3% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.4%
First Round98.7% 99.1% 97.2%
Second Round87.3% 88.9% 82.3%
Sweet Sixteen54.7% 56.7% 48.4%
Elite Eight27.3% 29.1% 21.8%
Final Four12.6% 13.6% 9.3%
Championship Game5.3% 5.9% 3.7%
National Champion2.2% 2.4% 1.3%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b7 - 211 - 6
Quad 28 - 118 - 7
Quad 32 - 020 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 142 Lipscomb W 105-61 96%     1 - 0 +42.2 +25.7 +13.7
  Sat, Nov 8 57 @Central Florida W 105-93 71%     2 - 0 +24.5 +30.2 -6.3
  Wed, Nov 12 260 Eastern Kentucky W 92-62 98%     3 - 0 +21.6 +9.7 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 15 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104-75 99%     4 - 0 +13.3 +18.4 -6.8
  Thu, Nov 20 318 Texas Southern W 109-74 99%     5 - 0 +22.7 +24.7 -4.2
  Wed, Nov 26 147 Western Kentucky W 83-78 94%     6 - 0 +5.8 +0.0 +5.1
  Thu, Nov 27 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 89-74 76%     7 - 0 +25.9 +16.6 +8.2
  Fri, Nov 28 39 St. Mary's W 96-71 72%     8 - 0 +37.1 +27.4 +8.8
  Wed, Dec 3 38 SMU W 88-69 81%     9 - 0 +28.1 +21.1 +7.6
  Sat, Dec 13 283 Central Arkansas W 83-72 99%     10 - 0 +1.5 +2.0 -1.2
  Wed, Dec 17 75 @Memphis W 84-76 76%    
  Sun, Dec 21 42 @Wake Forest W 84-80 63%    
  Mon, Dec 29 337 New Haven W 89-57 99.9%   
  Sat, Jan 3 87 @South Carolina W 81-72 80%    
  Tue, Jan 6 15 Alabama W 93-89 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 34 LSU W 85-77 78%    
  Wed, Jan 14 41 @Texas W 82-79 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 13 Florida W 83-80 62%    
  Tue, Jan 20 21 @Arkansas L 82-83 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 80 @Mississippi St. W 84-76 76%    
  Tue, Jan 27 22 Kentucky W 84-78 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 60 @Mississippi W 80-74 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 44 Oklahoma W 87-77 81%    
  Tue, Feb 10 28 @Auburn W 83-82 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 45 Texas A&M W 89-79 82%    
  Wed, Feb 18 48 @Missouri W 84-80 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 18 Tennessee W 80-75 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 19 Georgia W 91-86 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 22 @Kentucky L 80-81 48%    
  Wed, Mar 4 60 Mississippi W 83-71 86%    
  Sat, Mar 7 18 @Tennessee L 77-78 47%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.1 7.1 7.9 5.3 2.3 0.4 26.6 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 7.1 5.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 5.9 4.3 0.9 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.3 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 4.2 1.1 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.0 0.2 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.8 0.3 5.3 7th
8th 0.6 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.2 7.2 10.4 12.8 15.0 15.3 13.1 9.5 5.6 2.3 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.7% 2.3    2.2 0.1
16-2 96.0% 5.3    4.7 0.6 0.0
15-3 82.9% 7.9    5.4 2.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 54.7% 7.1    3.1 3.0 1.0 0.1
13-5 19.9% 3.1    0.5 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.6% 26.6 16.3 7.1 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 46.1% 53.9% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.3% 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.6% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 1.6 2.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.5% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.9 3.2 4.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.1% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 2.3 2.4 5.7 4.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-5 15.3% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.8 1.1 4.6 6.2 2.8 0.6 0.1 100.0%
12-6 15.0% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 3.4 0.3 2.2 5.6 4.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.8% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4.2 0.1 0.5 3.2 4.5 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.4% 100.0% 7.4% 92.7% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 3.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 7.2% 99.9% 4.3% 95.6% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 4.2% 98.4% 3.8% 94.6% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
7-11 2.3% 94.1% 1.4% 92.7% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 94.1%
6-12 1.1% 74.2% 2.7% 71.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 73.5%
5-13 0.6% 37.6% 1.2% 36.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 36.8%
4-14 0.2% 11.1% 11.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.1%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 98.9% 17.8% 81.2% 3.6 11.8 20.8 22.1 16.3 11.3 7.5 4.0 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.1 98.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 76.9 23.1