Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #301
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #269
Pace 73.1 #69
Improvement +1.5 #117

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #306 D- C D B+ F+
Defense #279 C- F+ C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.06 #299 -2.5 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #12 0.65 #328 +3.0 #51
Three Pointers 29% #358 0.91 #314 -7.6 #356
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #352 -7.1 #352
Freethrows 0.37 #18 74% #112 0.27 #20
Second Chance 32.3% #132 1.01 #226 0.33 #158
Turnovers 18.4% #299
Total Offense -5.0 #306

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #140 1.15 #168 -0.8 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #242 0.90 #353 -0.5 #222
Three Pointers 41% #171 1.04 #226 -0.7 #210
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #253 -2.1 #253
Freethrows 0.37 #339 72% #140 0.27 #332
Second Chance 36.6% #350 1.13 #287 0.41 #349
Turnovers 17.2% #128
Total Defense -3.3 #279

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #345 0.8% #237
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.0% #337 3.3% #243
Possession Length 17.3 #166 16.4 #37
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #113 0.21 #315
Improvement +0.1 #175 +1.4 #97

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 n/a
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 1.9% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.6% 37.2% 66.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 83 - 15
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 69 @California L 60 - 87 5% -14  0 - 1 -16 -9 D+ D- F -6 F F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 360 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 82% +7  1 - 1 -2 -2 D- D- F +1 F B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 64 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 4% -11  1 - 2 -10 +1 C C+ D -14 B+ F F
 Mon, Nov 17 148 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 14% -7  1 - 3 -9 +8 C- A+ F -17 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 95% +12  2 - 3 -11 -2 F B- B -10 F B D
 Tue, Nov 25 105 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 8% -13  2 - 4 -23 -18 F B- F -0 C D A+
 Sun, Nov 30 149 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 14% -4  3 - 4 +9 +7 D+ D+ A +2 A+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 4 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 23% -7  3 - 5 0 - 1 -21 -11 F A- F -9 D F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 13% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -21 +6 A- F C -26 F F D
 Thu, Dec 11 137 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 26% -6  3 - 7 -13 -8 F B D- -4 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 281 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 57% -4  3 - 8 -18 -11 F F+ F -7 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 188 Idaho W 64 - 63 37% +2  4 - 8 -4 -8 C+ C F +4 A C B-
 Thu, Jan 1 120 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 22% -6  4 - 9 0 - 3 -4 +9 C- A+ A -13 F F A
 Sat, Jan 3 181 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 18% -2  5 - 9 1 - 3 +3 +7 D B A- -3 C D B
 Thu, Jan 8 292 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 59% +0  6 - 9 2 - 3 -9 -10 F A+ F +1 D A- A
 Sat, Jan 10 251 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 27% -5  6 - 10 2 - 4 -8 -4 D+ F D+ -3 D+ F+ A
 Thu, Jan 15 146 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 28% -9  6 - 11 2 - 5 -8 +0 F A A -9 C B C
 Sat, Jan 17 112 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 21% -13  6 - 12 2 - 6 -21 -11 D- F F -9 C+ D+ D-
 Thu, Jan 22 97 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 7% -18  6 - 13 2 - 7 -19 -0 F+ F+ A+ -16 B- F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 289 Cal Poly W 85 - 83 58%
 Sat, Jan 31 181 UC Davis L 75 - 79 37%
 Thu, Feb 5 120 @UC Irvine L 65 - 79 10%
 Sat, Feb 7 216 @Cal St. Fullerton L 77 - 85 23%
 Thu, Feb 12 97 Hawaii L 68 - 79 16%
 Thu, Feb 19 292 @UC Riverside L 72 - 76 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 216 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 82 42%
 Thu, Feb 26 112 @UC San Diego L 67 - 82 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 251 Long Beach St. L 75 - 76 48%
 Thu, Mar 5 217 Cal St. Northridge L 81 - 83 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 289 @Cal Poly L 82 - 86 35%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -8 -5 D- C D -3 C- F+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 1.2 3.4 1.2 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 6.2 3.6 0.3 11.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 9.8 6.5 0.7 19.5 9th
10th 0.4 3.8 12.2 8.9 1.2 0.0 26.5 10th
11th 2.1 8.2 12.7 8.2 1.3 0.0 32.4 11th
Total 2.1 8.5 16.6 22.9 21.6 15.2 8.6 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.2% 6.8% 6.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 0.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-11 3.4% 3.4
8-12 8.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.6
7-13 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
6-14 21.6% 21.6
5-15 22.9% 22.9
4-16 16.6% 16.6
3-17 8.5% 8.5
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%