Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#311
Expected Predictive Rating-9.5#306
Pace72.6#98
Improvement-1.2#262

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#302
First Shot-6.4#341
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#83
Layup/Dunks-2.5#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.0#363
Freethrows+4.8#9
Improvement-0.3#208

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#303
First Shot-0.9#210
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#343
Layups/Dunks-3.4#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#45
Freethrows-1.0#252
Improvement-0.9#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.8
.500 or above 0.9% 2.1% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 4.4% 6.3% 3.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 46.4% 40.7% 49.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 32.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 92 - 14
Quad 46 - 79 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 81 @California L 60-87 5%     0 - 1 -16.7 -10.8 -4.8
  Tue, Nov 11 354 Western Illinois W 74-58 78%     1 - 1 -0.7 -3.3 +3.3
  Fri, Nov 14 60 @Mississippi L 60-82 4%     1 - 2 -9.8 +1.1 -13.6
  Mon, Nov 17 177 @Portland St. L 80-93 16%     1 - 3 -11.2 +6.7 -17.2
  Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86-70 93%     2 - 3 -9.7 -2.9 -7.8
  Tue, Nov 25 104 @Florida St. L 59-89 8%     2 - 4 -22.9 -18.4 -0.4
  Sun, Nov 30 183 @Fresno St. W 76-71 17%     3 - 4 +6.4 +3.1 +3.2
  Thu, Dec 4 221 @Cal St. Northridge L 66-87 22%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -21.6 -11.6 -8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 84-109 13%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -21.4 +7.0 -27.5
  Thu, Dec 11 146 North Dakota St. L 69-80 26%     3 - 7 -13.1 -7.6 -5.0
  Sat, Dec 13 292 Pepperdine L 62-70 56%     3 - 8 -18.2 -11.1 -7.4
  Tue, Dec 23 172 Idaho L 73-78 33%    
  Thu, Jan 1 122 UC Irvine L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Jan 3 198 @UC Davis L 69-78 20%    
  Thu, Jan 8 268 UC Riverside L 74-75 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 277 @Long Beach St. L 71-77 30%    
  Thu, Jan 15 150 UC Santa Barbara L 72-78 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 89 UC San Diego L 71-83 14%    
  Fri, Jan 23 110 @Hawaii L 65-80 8%    
  Thu, Jan 29 250 Cal Poly L 83-84 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 198 UC Davis L 72-75 38%    
  Thu, Feb 5 122 @UC Irvine L 63-78 9%    
  Sat, Feb 7 269 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79-85 30%    
  Thu, Feb 12 110 Hawaii L 68-77 20%    
  Thu, Feb 19 268 @UC Riverside L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 269 Cal St. Fullerton L 82-83 51%    
  Thu, Feb 26 89 @UC San Diego L 68-86 5%    
  Sat, Feb 28 277 Long Beach St. W 75-74 52%    
  Thu, Mar 5 221 Cal St. Northridge L 80-82 42%    
  Sat, Mar 7 250 @Cal Poly L 80-87 28%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.3 1.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 4.5 6.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.7 8.3 3.8 0.5 0.0 22.1 10th
11th 0.9 3.4 7.4 10.1 8.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 33.6 11th
Total 0.9 3.4 7.8 12.6 15.8 16.4 14.5 11.7 7.6 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 11.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-10 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
9-11 5.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.0
8-12 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
7-13 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.7
6-14 14.5% 14.5
5-15 16.4% 16.4
4-16 15.8% 15.8
3-17 12.6% 12.6
2-18 7.8% 7.8
1-19 3.4% 3.4
0-20 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%