UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#150
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#136
Pace64.3#313
Improvement+0.0#185

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#104
First Shot+3.0#98
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks-2.5#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#117
Freethrows+3.6#23
Improvement-2.8#350

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#254
First Shot-2.8#264
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#154
Layups/Dunks+3.4#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#288
Freethrows-2.9#333
Improvement+2.8#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 11.9% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 88.1% 92.8% 79.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 87.7% 81.1%
Conference Champion 10.8% 12.5% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.5% 11.9% 8.2%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 63.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 188 San Jose St. W 85-74 70%     1 - 0 +6.2 +18.5 -11.0
  Tue, Nov 11 279 @Sacramento St. W 92-87 65%     2 - 0 +1.7 +14.2 -12.7
  Mon, Nov 17 134 Loyola Marymount L 74-78 OT 57%     2 - 1 -5.3 -0.5 -4.6
  Sat, Nov 22 98 @Nevada L 64-77 24%     2 - 2 -5.0 -3.8 -1.6
  Fri, Nov 28 309 Lehigh W 72-70 80%     3 - 2 -6.3 +2.1 -8.2
  Sat, Nov 29 118 Seattle W 74-71 40%     4 - 2 +6.2 +12.7 -6.2
  Thu, Dec 4 277 Long Beach St. W 84-77 OT 82%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -2.2 +1.3 -3.8
  Sat, Dec 6 311 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109-84 87%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +13.3 +26.5 -14.3
  Sat, Dec 13 84 Utah Valley L 53-68 27%     6 - 3 -8.2 -12.2 +3.5
  Wed, Dec 17 276 @Green Bay W 74-70 64%    
  Mon, Dec 22 243 Portland W 79-71 78%    
  Thu, Jan 1 269 @Cal St. Fullerton W 82-79 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 221 @Cal St. Northridge W 79-78 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 198 UC Davis W 75-69 72%    
  Thu, Jan 15 311 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-72 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 110 Hawaii W 72-71 51%    
  Thu, Jan 22 250 Cal Poly W 86-77 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 277 @Long Beach St. W 75-71 63%    
  Thu, Jan 29 89 @UC San Diego L 71-79 22%    
  Sat, Jan 31 269 Cal St. Fullerton W 85-76 80%    
  Thu, Feb 5 198 @UC Davis W 72-71 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 122 UC Irvine W 70-69 53%    
  Thu, Feb 12 268 @UC Riverside W 75-72 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 250 @Cal Poly W 83-80 60%    
  Thu, Feb 19 221 Cal St. Northridge W 82-75 74%    
  Sun, Feb 22 110 @Hawaii L 68-74 30%    
  Thu, Feb 26 268 UC Riverside W 78-69 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 122 @UC Irvine L 67-72 31%    
  Sat, Mar 7 89 UC San Diego L 74-76 42%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.2 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 10.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.7 5.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 7.0 5.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.5 7.5 4.9 1.2 0.1 20.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.8 9.7 12.6 14.2 14.4 12.5 9.8 6.5 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 94.8% 1.4    1.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 79.8% 2.8    2.0 0.8 0.0
16-4 49.5% 3.2    1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 20.3% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
14-6 5.4% 0.7    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 6.1 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.5% 41.3% 41.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-2 1.5% 35.4% 35.4% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0
17-3 3.5% 32.0% 32.0% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4
16-4 6.5% 25.8% 25.8% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.9
15-5 9.8% 21.2% 21.2% 13.2 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 7.7
14-6 12.5% 14.7% 14.7% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 10.7
13-7 14.4% 9.8% 9.8% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 13.0
12-8 14.2% 5.9% 5.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 13.3
11-9 12.6% 3.5% 3.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.2
10-10 9.7% 2.6% 2.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5
9-11 6.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.7
8-12 4.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.1
7-13 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 1.0% 1.0
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.1 3.2 1.1 0.1 89.5 0.0%