California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#81
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#32
Pace68.8#204
Improvement-2.3#322

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#76
First Shot+5.7#44
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#270
Layup/Dunks-0.3#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#34
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement-1.6#300

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#82
First Shot+4.0#58
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#264
Layups/Dunks-1.0#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#239
Freethrows+3.6#12
Improvement-0.7#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 17.1% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.8% 16.9% 5.6%
Average Seed 9.6 9.6 10.1
.500 or above 92.6% 92.7% 71.8%
.500 or above in Conference 37.5% 37.6% 25.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 4.5% 9.5%
First Four6.2% 6.3% 3.6%
First Round13.4% 13.4% 3.6%
Second Round4.8% 4.9% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 7
Quad 23 - 46 - 11
Quad 36 - 112 - 12
Quad 47 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 311 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-60 95%     1 - 0 +15.3 +5.2 +9.0
  Thu, Nov 6 144 Wright St. W 77-67 81%     2 - 0 +8.0 +3.9 +4.2
  Mon, Nov 10 269 Cal St. Fullerton W 93-65 92%     3 - 0 +19.3 +7.2 +9.4
  Thu, Nov 13 67 @Kansas St. L 96-99 35%     3 - 1 +8.3 +17.2 -8.6
  Tue, Nov 18 263 Presbyterian W 67-57 92%     4 - 1 +1.5 +6.0 -2.4
  Fri, Nov 21 279 Sacramento St. W 91-67 93%     5 - 1 +14.7 +8.3 +4.8
  Tue, Nov 25 30 UCLA W 80-72 26%     6 - 1 +21.9 +12.2 +9.6
  Tue, Dec 2 120 Utah W 79-72 76%     7 - 1 +7.1 +6.4 +0.9
  Sat, Dec 6 128 Pacific W 67-61 78%     8 - 1 +5.1 +4.4 +1.7
  Sat, Dec 13 273 Northwestern St. W 79-70 93%     9 - 1 +0.1 +3.3 -2.8
  Fri, Dec 19 359 Morgan St. W 90-65 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 137 Columbia W 79-70 79%    
  Tue, Dec 30 10 Louisville L 75-84 21%    
  Fri, Jan 2 55 Notre Dame W 72-71 52%    
  Wed, Jan 7 26 @Virginia L 70-81 16%    
  Sat, Jan 10 63 @Virginia Tech L 74-78 34%    
  Wed, Jan 14 2 Duke L 67-79 13%    
  Sat, Jan 17 23 North Carolina L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Jan 24 92 @Stanford L 76-77 45%    
  Wed, Jan 28 104 @Florida St. W 81-80 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 33 @Miami (FL) L 71-80 21%    
  Wed, Feb 4 130 Georgia Tech W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 35 Clemson L 70-72 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 68 @Syracuse L 71-75 37%    
  Sat, Feb 14 148 @Boston College W 72-68 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 92 Stanford W 79-74 66%    
  Wed, Feb 25 38 SMU L 76-78 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 107 Pittsburgh W 75-69 72%    
  Wed, Mar 4 130 @Georgia Tech W 74-72 59%    
  Sat, Mar 7 42 @Wake Forest L 73-80 25%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.3 0.2 3.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.3 1.3 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.5 3.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 5.0 1.2 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.9 0.2 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.9 4.9 0.8 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.1 2.3 5.5 2.0 0.1 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.4 0.3 0.0 9.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.1 0.8 0.0 8.1 14th
15th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.5 0.1 6.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.7 0.2 5.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.0 9.4 13.0 14.7 15.0 13.4 10.1 6.6 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 80.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 48.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 19.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 100.0% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.8% 96.8% 4.4% 92.4% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.7%
13-5 2.1% 91.8% 3.6% 88.2% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 91.5%
12-6 4.1% 78.6% 1.4% 77.2% 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.9 78.3%
11-7 6.6% 57.4% 1.0% 56.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.0 2.8 56.9%
10-8 10.1% 36.5% 0.6% 36.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.0 6.4 36.2%
9-9 13.4% 18.2% 0.2% 17.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.1 11.0 18.0%
8-10 15.0% 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 14.3 4.8%
7-11 14.7% 0.7% 0.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.6 0.7%
6-12 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 13.0 0.0%
5-13 9.4% 9.4
4-14 6.0% 6.0
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.1% 0.3% 16.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.1 4.9 5.5 0.1 82.9 16.8%