California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.3 #69
Expected Predictive Rating +11.0 #52
Pace 68.5 #189
Improvement -1.0 #237

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #95 B- C B B- C-
Defense #52 B+ B+ C B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #304 1.22 #107 -1.5 #239
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #145 0.80 #113 +1.1 #115
Three Pointers 44% #129 1.12 #56 +3.7 #64
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #82 +3.3 #81
Freethrows 0.32 #129 78% #14 0.25 #74
Second Chance 27.9% #257 1.10 #94 0.31 #200
Turnovers 14.0% #41
Total Offense +3.1 #95

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.04 #51 +2.5 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #226 0.74 #147 +0.8 #128
Three Pointers 43% #114 0.84 #9 +2.9 #72
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #30 +6.2 #30
Freethrows 0.27 #91 65% #1 0.18 #41
Second Chance 28.3% #97 0.87 #15 0.25 #30
Turnovers 16.5% #177
Total Defense +5.2 #52

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #254 0.4% #207
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.5% #66 -12.4% #14
Possession Length 16.6 #105 18.4 #325
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #171 0.14 #82
Improvement -2.9 #329 +1.9 #70

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 27.2% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.9% 26.9% 9.9%
Average Seed 10.4 10.1 10.6
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 43.7% 66.1% 36.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.4% 1.7%
First Four8.4% 13.3% 6.9%
First Round9.2% 19.1% 6.1%
Second Round2.7% 6.2% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 43 - 7
Quad 23 - 47 - 11
Quad 36 - 113 - 12
Quad 47 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 60 95% +14  1 - 0 +16 +6 A C D +9 B- A+ A
 Thu, Nov 6 151 Wright St. W 77 - 67 84% +6  2 - 0 +7 +2 C+ F B +6 A+ C+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 93 - 65 91% +16  3 - 0 +22 +9 D C A+ +10 A- A- B
 Thu, Nov 13 87 @Kansas St. L 96 - 99 45% -14  3 - 1 +7 +18 A+ B F -11 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 269 Presbyterian W 67 - 57 94% +3  4 - 1 +1 +4 B- C F+ -1 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 294 Sacramento St. W 91 - 67 95% +18  5 - 1 +13 +6 A D- C +6 A+ B- C-
 Tue, Nov 25 34 UCLA W 80 - 72 29% +2  6 - 1 +22 +13 A+ F A+ +9 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 104 Utah W 79 - 72 74% +1  7 - 1 +9 +6 B- C+ C +3 A- B- C
 Sat, Dec 6 123 Pacific W 67 - 61 80% +9  8 - 1 +5 +4 B C C+ +2 A C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 268 Northwestern St. W 79 - 70 94% +1  9 - 1 +0 +3 D B+ C- -3 D+ C+ A-
 Fri, Dec 19 356 Morgan St. W 97 - 50 98% +22  10 - 1 +30 +16 A- A- B- +14 A- B B-
 Sun, Dec 21 170 Columbia W 74 - 56 87% +11  11 - 1 +14 +2 C+ D A- +13 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 19 Louisville L 70 - 90 28% -16  11 - 2 0 - 1 -6 +1 D- C- A+ -7 C C C-
 Fri, Jan 2 81 Notre Dame W 72 - 71 66% -2  12 - 2 1 - 1 +5 +9 C+ D+ A+ -4 B A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 22 @Virginia L 60 - 84 14% -5  12 - 3 1 - 2 -4 -3 D F B- -2 B- B B
 Sat, Jan 10 59 @Virginia Tech L 75 - 78 35% +2  12 - 4 1 - 3 +9 +12 B A C- -3 B B- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 3 Duke L 56 - 71 13% -3  12 - 5 1 - 4 +6 -2 C- F+ A- +6 A+ B C
 Sat, Jan 17 28 North Carolina W 84 - 78 37% +11  13 - 5 2 - 4 +18 +14 A- A+ F+ +4 B- A B
 Sat, Jan 24 84 @Stanford W 78 - 66 44% +1  14 - 5 3 - 4 +22 +9 B C- A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 105 @Florida St. L 61 - 63 53% -5  14 - 6 3 - 5 +5 -6 F D+ A- +12 B A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 40 @Miami (FL) L 70 - 78 24%
 Wed, Feb 4 111 Georgia Tech W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 32 Clemson L 66 - 69 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 76 @Syracuse L 72 - 74 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 132 @Boston College W 70 - 66 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 84 Stanford W 75 - 70 66%
 Wed, Feb 25 37 SMU L 76 - 79 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 92 Pittsburgh W 73 - 68 69%
 Wed, Mar 4 111 @Georgia Tech W 75 - 73 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 68 @Wake Forest L 73 - 76 40%
Totals 19 - 11 8 - 10 +8 +3 B- C B +5 B+ B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 2.7 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 5.7 1.2 9.5 7th
8th 1.5 8.2 4.7 0.1 14.4 8th
9th 0.6 7.4 8.3 1.1 17.4 9th
10th 0.0 3.8 9.2 2.2 0.0 15.3 10th
11th 0.7 7.4 3.7 0.1 11.9 11th
12th 0.0 2.8 4.9 0.5 8.2 12th
13th 0.4 4.1 1.1 0.0 5.7 13th
14th 1.0 2.1 0.1 3.2 14th
15th 0.1 1.6 0.5 2.2 15th
16th 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.8 17th
18th 0.2 0.2 0.3 18th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.3 10.2 18.0 22.4 21.5 14.0 6.3 1.7 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 90.4% 3.8% 86.5% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0%
12-6 1.7% 74.6% 1.2% 73.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 74.3%
11-7 6.3% 51.3% 0.8% 50.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.0 3.1 50.9%
10-8 14.0% 33.2% 0.3% 33.0% 10.5 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.7 0.0 9.3 33.1%
9-9 21.5% 16.5% 0.2% 16.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 0.0 17.9 16.3%
8-10 22.4% 4.7% 0.2% 4.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 21.3 4.6%
7-11 18.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.8 0.7%
6-12 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 10.2 0.1%
5-13 4.3% 4.3
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.1% 0.2% 13.9% 10.4 85.9 13.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%