Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.0 #251
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #252
Pace 68.1 #203
Improvement +3.0 #59

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #238 C D+ C D+ D-
Defense #250 C- C- C D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 1.26 #78 -0.5 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #27 0.73 #211 +3.3 #44
Three Pointers 35% #308 1.01 #204 -3.2 #294
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #188 -0.4 #188
Freethrows 0.26 #295 73% #150 0.19 #276
Second Chance 26.7% #287 1.01 #220 0.27 #275
Turnovers 16.3% #168
Total Offense -2.5 #238

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.25 #289 -3.4 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #150 0.84 #304 -1.2 #280
Three Pointers 37% #282 0.97 #114 +2.7 #76
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #243 -1.9 #242
Freethrows 0.35 #307 76% #337 0.26 #330
Second Chance 26.7% #54 1.30 #363 0.35 #257
Turnovers 16.6% #170
Total Defense -2.5 #250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #333 0.2% #178
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.2% #140 3.5% #248
Possession Length 17.7 #209 17.1 #144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #242 0.18 #210
Improvement -0.1 #185 +3.1 #32

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 22.5% 33.9% 11.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 1.6% 11.3%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 48 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 41 @San Diego St. L 45 - 77 4% -13  0 - 1 -17 -19 F+ D F +3 B+ F A
 Sat, Nov 8 149 @Fresno St. L 62 - 82 21% -10  0 - 2 -16 -7 D- D- F+ -9 F B B+
 Wed, Nov 12 123 @Pacific L 66 - 69 17% +3  0 - 3 +2 -3 D B D- +5 A+ F B+
 Sun, Nov 16 88 Illinois St. L 80 - 82 21% -4  0 - 4 +1 +12 A C+ A+ -11 B- A F
 Fri, Nov 21 155 Montana St. L 72 - 78 42% -3  0 - 5 -9 -1 C+ D- C- -7 C+ D D
 Wed, Nov 26 218 @Portland L 73 - 93 33% -11  0 - 6 -20 -1 D+ D+ D+ -19 F C- B-
 Sun, Nov 30 208 San Diego W 76 - 72 54% -1  1 - 6 -2 +8 C+ A+ A+ -9 D F A+
 Thu, Dec 4 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 84 OT 20% -1  1 - 7 0 - 1 -3 -2 F A+ C- -1 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 112 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 30% -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -6 +4 B D- B -10 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 249 @San Jose St. L 83 - 89 OT 38% -1  1 - 9 -8 +7 D A- D+ -14 F F C
 Thu, Dec 18 281 Pepperdine W 81 - 78 69% -2  2 - 9 -7 +5 B+ D B+ -12 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 9 @Iowa St. L 60 - 91 1% -29  2 - 10 -8 -4 D+ F A -2 D+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 289 Cal Poly W 74 - 66 70% +10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -5 C- D D+ +3 A+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 120 @UC Irvine L 64 - 74 16% -7  3 - 11 1 - 3 -4 -2 B- F D+ -2 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 75 73% +5  4 - 11 2 - 3 -5 -3 C D+ F -3 D- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 292 UC Riverside W 88 - 73 70% +10  5 - 11 3 - 3 +5 +13 A+ C B -8 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 217 @Cal St. Northridge W 87 - 80 33% +0  6 - 11 4 - 3 +7 +4 B- D- D+ +2 A F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 216 @Cal St. Fullerton L 61 - 71 33% -11  6 - 12 4 - 4 -10 -10 D F F -1 F+ A- A-
 Sat, Jan 24 146 UC Santa Barbara L 71 - 74 40% -8  6 - 13 4 - 5 -5 +2 B- F A- -7 C+ D+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 292 @UC Riverside L 72 - 73 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 97 Hawaii L 68 - 75 25%
 Thu, Feb 5 112 @UC San Diego L 67 - 78 14%
 Thu, Feb 12 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 79 - 78 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 181 @UC Davis L 72 - 78 28%
 Thu, Feb 19 120 UC Irvine L 68 - 73 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 217 Cal St. Northridge W 80 - 79 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 289 @Cal Poly L 81 - 82 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 76 - 75 52%
 Thu, Mar 5 181 UC Davis L 74 - 75 48%
 Sun, Mar 8 97 @Hawaii L 65 - 78 11%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5 -3 C D+ C -2 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.1 0.1 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 5.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 7.2 5.4 0.7 0.0 15.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 9.2 8.1 1.6 0.0 20.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 9.8 9.8 2.1 0.1 23.6 8th
9th 0.7 6.1 6.8 1.2 0.0 14.8 9th
10th 0.3 2.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.7 1.2 0.3 2.2 11th
Total 0.9 4.6 11.6 19.2 22.1 19.1 12.9 6.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 34.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 10.3% 10.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.6% 7.2% 7.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
11-9 6.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.5
10-10 12.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.8
9-11 19.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 19.0
8-12 22.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.0
7-13 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.2
6-14 11.6% 11.6
5-15 4.6% 4.6
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.7 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%