UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #198
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #169
Pace 71.6 #105
Improvement -2.6 #297

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #192 C+ C- C- B- C
Defense #216 C- C C+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.23 #97 -0.5 #194
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.72 #221 -0.4 #192
Three Pointers 44% #125 1.10 #70 +3.3 #76
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #112 +2.5 #110
Freethrows 0.34 #87 74% #109 0.25 #73
Second Chance 26.2% #300 1.11 #90 0.29 #237
Turnovers 17.4% #247
Total Offense -1.0 #192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.20 #236 -2.0 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #294 0.67 #52 +2.2 #34
Three Pointers 43% #126 1.09 #287 -2.5 #290
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #262 -2.3 #260
Freethrows 0.33 #289 72% #192 0.24 #281
Second Chance 30.5% #177 1.02 #140 0.31 #158
Turnovers 17.4% #113
Total Defense -1.3 #216

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #215 1.3% #289
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.2% #93 3.2% #242
Possession Length 16.3 #77 17.6 #230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #178 0.18 #230
Improvement -0.9 #232 -1.8 #286

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.2% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 62.6% 73.0% 42.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.1% 70.0% 38.1%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.0% 1.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.6% 3.2% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 42 - 4
Quad 35 - 77 - 11
Quad 49 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 136 North Dakota St. W 80 - 68 47% +2  1 - 0 +10 +7 A A F +4 A+ D- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 218 @Portland L 63 - 67 43% +0  1 - 1 -4 -9 F C+ F +4 B B A
 Fri, Nov 14 285 Sacramento St. W 77 - 73 77% -2  2 - 1 -6 -4 D- C D+ -2 C- C B+
 Tue, Nov 18 75 @Nevada W 75 - 71 12% -0  3 - 1 +15 +2 A+ F F +12 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 85 @Colorado L 79 - 95 13% -6  3 - 2 -6 +9 C+ A+ D+ -15 F C- C
 Mon, Nov 24 310 Louisiana W 77 - 56 81% +8  4 - 2 +9 +6 A- D+ B- +5 C+ B A-
 Thu, Dec 4 102 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 17% -6  4 - 3 0 - 1 +2 +3 C D+ C+ -1 F+ C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 79 @Oregon L 62 - 104 12% -30  4 - 4 -32 -8 D- D- D- -23 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 124 Seattle L 78 - 79 44% -4  4 - 5 -2 +7 A+ F A- -8 C F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 226 @Idaho St. W 93 - 83 44% +8  5 - 5 +9 +24 A+ C+ A+ -14 F C C
 Thu, Jan 1 204 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 80 63% +6  6 - 5 1 - 1 +3 +6 A+ F F -3 C- B- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 320 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79 - 81 83% +2  6 - 6 1 - 2 -15 -2 C D+ D- -13 D D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 133 @UC Santa Barbara W 93 - 86 26% -3  7 - 6 2 - 2 +12 +18 A B B- -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 271 @Cal Poly L 78 - 84 54% +6  7 - 7 2 - 3 -9 -1 D- D C -8 B- C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 217 Cal St. Fullerton W 74 - 69 65% +9  8 - 7 3 - 3 -1 -6 D B- F +4 A- C- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 114 UC Irvine W 75 - 72 41% +2  9 - 7 4 - 3 +3 +8 D+ A- B -5 D C+ A-
 Thu, Jan 22 126 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 45% -1  9 - 8 4 - 4 -7 -3 D+ D- C+ -4 D B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 287 UC Riverside W 74 - 66 77% +10  10 - 8 5 - 4 -2 -1 B- D F -1 B+ F C
 Thu, Jan 29 204 @Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 94 40% -4  10 - 9 5 - 5 -16 -4 D+ D D+ -9 F A- C
 Sat, Jan 31 320 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 76 66%
 Thu, Feb 5 133 UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 75 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 271 Cal Poly W 88 - 81 74%
 Thu, Feb 12 126 @UC San Diego L 71 - 78 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 254 Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 73%
 Thu, Feb 19 217 @Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 82 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 287 @UC Riverside W 75 - 73 57%
 Thu, Feb 26 102 Hawaii L 72 - 76 36%
 Thu, Mar 5 254 @Long Beach St. W 76 - 75 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 114 @UC Irvine L 68 - 76 21%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 10 -2 -1 C+ C- C- -1 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.2 2.5 0.4 7.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 7.9 6.0 0.8 0.0 16.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 10.4 8.9 1.5 0.1 23.7 5th
6th 1.6 9.0 8.7 1.7 0.0 21.0 6th
7th 0.7 5.6 8.2 1.7 0.0 16.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 4.1 1.1 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.1 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.3 12.5 21.3 23.0 19.5 10.9 4.6 1.0 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 64.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.1
14-6 1.0% 14.8% 14.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-7 4.6% 8.2% 8.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.2
12-8 10.9% 6.9% 6.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 10.2
11-9 19.5% 2.4% 2.4% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 19.1
10-10 23.0% 1.7% 1.7% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 22.6
9-11 21.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 20.9
8-12 12.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.1 0.0 12.4
7-13 5.3% 5.3
6-14 1.5% 1.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 14.1 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%