Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #216
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #213
Pace 80.3 #8
Improvement +3.2 #48

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #234 C D C+ C+ C
Defense #208 D+ C B C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.17 #156 +0.5 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #176 0.73 #212 -0.3 #189
Three Pointers 41% #186 1.03 #170 +0.1 #170
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #161 +0.3 #161
Freethrows 0.34 #87 70% #253 0.24 #125
Second Chance 26.3% #297 0.95 #312 0.25 #320
Turnovers 15.3% #115
Total Offense -2.3 #234

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.26 #308 +0.2 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #307 0.75 #160 +1.7 #63
Three Pointers 49% #17 1.07 #259 -5.3 #347
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #286 -3.4 #284
Freethrows 0.30 #194 73% #228 0.22 #209
Second Chance 30.3% #168 1.07 #229 0.33 #198
Turnovers 18.7% #54
Total Defense -1.0 #208

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #190 0.6% #223
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.5% #166 6.0% #291
Possession Length 14.8 #11 17.2 #151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #15 0.19 #246
Improvement -0.1 #188 +3.4 #28

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.4% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 9.0% 19.8% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 52.2% 75.7% 44.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round1.5% 2.3% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Away) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 85 - 14
Quad 49 - 413 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 116 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 19% -3  0 - 1 -4 -2 D D F +0 C B D-
 Mon, Nov 10 69 @California L 65 - 93 9% -16  0 - 2 -17 -7 C- D- D+ -7 B C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 123 Pacific L 73 - 85 40% -14  0 - 3 -13 -8 F D- A+ -4 F A A
 Fri, Nov 21 218 @Portland L 85 - 103 39% -13  0 - 4 -18 +4 A+ F C -20 F F D
 Sat, Nov 22 128 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 31% -1  1 - 4 +10 +8 C+ F+ A+ +1 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 23 197 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 46% -4  1 - 5 -6 +5 C D- A+ -11 C+ D F
 Sat, Nov 29 281 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 74% +5  2 - 5 +4 +7 C+ B- A- -3 B B- C
 Thu, Dec 4 289 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 75% -5  2 - 6 0 - 1 -13 -4 C C F -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 97 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 14% -9  2 - 7 0 - 2 -2 -8 F+ F A- +7 B- B B
 Sat, Dec 13 284 @Denver W 105 - 86 53% +19  3 - 7 +15 +15 A+ C+ D+ -2 B+ F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 63 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 9% -10  3 - 8 +7 +10 A B+ C -2 F+ A- A+
 Sun, Dec 28 37 @SMU L 63 - 110 4% -25  3 - 9 -30 -9 F C- F -17 F D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 146 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 46% +13  4 - 9 1 - 2 +9 +10 B C B+ -2 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 120 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 38% -9  4 - 10 1 - 3 -22 -4 D C- B -19 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 112 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 18% +4  5 - 10 2 - 3 +23 +19 A+ C A+ +4 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 217 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 79 62% -1  6 - 10 3 - 3 +1 +1 B- D C+ -1 D+ B- C+
 Thu, Jan 15 181 @UC Davis L 69 - 74 32% -9  6 - 11 3 - 4 -4 -7 F+ C- D +4 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 292 @UC Riverside L 72 - 81 54% -9  6 - 12 3 - 5 -13 -9 F D D- -3 F A- A-
 Thu, Jan 22 251 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 67% +11  7 - 12 4 - 5 +2 -4 B F D- +6 C+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 24 289 @Cal Poly W 93 - 78 54% +8  8 - 12 5 - 5 +11 +13 A D- C -3 D+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 76 - 83 25%
 Thu, Feb 5 292 UC Riverside W 81 - 74 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85 - 77 77%
 Thu, Feb 12 251 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 79 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 120 @UC Irvine L 71 - 80 20%
 Thu, Feb 19 181 UC Davis W 81 - 80 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 80 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 97 Hawaii L 74 - 80 30%
 Thu, Mar 5 112 UC San Diego L 76 - 80 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 84 - 87 39%
Totals 13 - 17 10 - 10 -3 -2 C D C+ -1 D+ C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.8 1.7 0.2 5.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 6.3 4.4 0.5 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.3 9.1 7.6 1.0 0.0 20.0 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 9.9 10.2 2.0 0.0 24.2 6th
7th 1.2 7.7 8.6 2.2 0.1 19.8 7th
8th 0.3 3.8 5.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.3 2.4 7.6 15.4 22.2 23.1 16.8 8.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 17.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.7% 16.4% 16.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-7 3.0% 8.4% 8.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
12-8 8.5% 4.6% 4.6% 14.8 0.1 0.3 8.1
11-9 16.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 16.4
10-10 23.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 22.9
9-11 22.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 22.0
8-12 15.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.4
7-13 7.6% 7.6
6-14 2.4% 2.4
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.0 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%