Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#269
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#252
Pace84.5#3
Improvement+2.0#66

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#247
First Shot-0.3#179
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#334
Layup/Dunks+1.0#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement+1.1#93

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#267
First Shot-2.8#266
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#191
Layups/Dunks+0.8#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#278
Freethrows-2.7#329
Improvement+0.9#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.4% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 3.5% 13.5% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.7% 26.7% 15.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.9% 13.6% 22.2%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 83 - 15
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 97 @Wyoming L 82-92 10%     0 - 1 -1.8 -0.7 +0.5
  Mon, Nov 10 81 @California L 65-93 8%     0 - 2 -17.7 -9.4 -5.7
  Sat, Nov 15 128 Pacific L 73-85 32%     0 - 3 -12.9 -7.4 -4.2
  Fri, Nov 21 243 @Portland L 85-103 35%     0 - 4 -19.7 +2.9 -20.6
  Sat, Nov 22 135 St. Thomas W 88-80 24%     1 - 4 +9.7 +8.2 +0.8
  Sun, Nov 23 154 Northern Colorado L 93-97 28%     1 - 5 -3.7 +7.4 -10.6
  Sat, Nov 29 292 Pepperdine W 83-69 67%     2 - 5 +3.8 +7.1 -3.5
  Thu, Dec 4 250 Cal Poly L 91-94 59%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -11.1 -2.5 -8.0
  Sat, Dec 6 110 @Hawaii L 59-69 13%     2 - 7 0 - 2 -3.5 -8.8 +5.7
  Sat, Dec 13 312 @Denver W 105-86 51%     3 - 7 +13.0 +14.1 -2.8
  Sun, Dec 21 53 @Oklahoma St. L 80-99 4%    
  Sun, Dec 28 38 @SMU L 74-95 3%    
  Thu, Jan 1 150 UC Santa Barbara L 79-82 38%    
  Sat, Jan 3 122 UC Irvine L 73-79 30%    
  Thu, Jan 8 89 @UC San Diego L 76-91 9%    
  Sat, Jan 10 221 Cal St. Northridge W 88-87 53%    
  Thu, Jan 15 198 @UC Davis L 76-82 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 268 @UC Riverside L 79-82 39%    
  Thu, Jan 22 277 Long Beach St. W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 250 @Cal Poly L 89-93 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 76-85 20%    
  Thu, Feb 5 268 UC Riverside W 82-79 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 311 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-79 70%    
  Thu, Feb 12 277 @Long Beach St. L 78-81 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 122 @UC Irvine L 70-82 15%    
  Thu, Feb 19 198 UC Davis L 78-79 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 311 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83-82 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 110 Hawaii L 75-81 29%    
  Thu, Mar 5 89 UC San Diego L 79-88 22%    
  Sat, Mar 7 221 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-90 32%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.7 3.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 15.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 4.1 7.1 4.0 0.7 0.0 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 6.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 17.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.5 4.4 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.1 9.1 12.7 14.8 14.7 13.1 10.2 7.4 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 71.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 31.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 9.4% 9.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 9.9% 9.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.1% 5.0% 5.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 2.3% 5.3% 5.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
11-9 4.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.1 0.0 4.4
10-10 7.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.3
9-11 10.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.1
8-12 13.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.0
7-13 14.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.7
6-14 14.8% 14.8
5-15 12.7% 12.7
4-16 9.1% 9.1
3-17 6.1% 6.1
2-18 2.7% 2.7
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%