UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#122
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#163
Pace71.3#135
Improvement+1.3#96

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#276
First Shot-4.8#305
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#130
Layup/Dunks-1.3#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#325
Freethrows+1.3#102
Improvement+0.6#124

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#24
First Shot+7.3#16
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#115
Freethrows+1.4#98
Improvement+0.7#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 23.3% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 90.8% 95.8% 86.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 96.7% 94.0%
Conference Champion 24.2% 28.1% 20.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.0% 23.3% 17.0%
Second Round2.1% 2.7% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 126 California Baptist L 61-69 64%     0 - 1 -8.7 -13.7 +5.1
  Sat, Nov 15 212 Weber St. W 79-70 81%     1 - 1 +2.7 -4.6 +6.4
  Wed, Nov 19 84 @Utah Valley L 72-79 25%     1 - 2 +2.8 +6.0 -3.1
  Sat, Nov 22 93 Northern Iowa L 69-70 OT 51%     1 - 3 +1.6 -0.3 +1.9
  Tue, Nov 25 133 New Mexico St. L 45-57 55%     1 - 4 -10.3 -26.6 +16.2
  Wed, Nov 26 160 South Dakota St. W 64-52 61%     2 - 4 +12.1 -11.3 +22.7
  Sun, Nov 30 188 @San Jose St. W 72-63 57%     3 - 4 +10.2 +2.1 +8.5
  Thu, Dec 4 268 UC Riverside W 73-60 86%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +4.3 -3.3 +7.9
  Sat, Dec 6 221 Cal St. Northridge W 85-71 81%     5 - 4 2 - 0 +7.4 +8.4 -0.9
  Fri, Dec 19 85 Belmont L 73-74 47%    
  Sun, Dec 21 146 North Dakota St. W 71-69 57%    
  Thu, Jan 1 311 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 269 @Cal St. Fullerton W 79-73 70%    
  Thu, Jan 8 277 Long Beach St. W 75-63 87%    
  Sun, Jan 11 110 @Hawaii L 65-69 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 198 @UC Davis W 68-66 59%    
  Thu, Jan 22 268 @UC Riverside W 72-66 70%    
  Sat, Jan 24 89 @UC San Diego L 68-74 29%    
  Thu, Jan 29 110 Hawaii W 68-66 59%    
  Thu, Feb 5 311 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-63 91%    
  Sat, Feb 7 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 69-70 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 250 @Cal Poly W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Feb 14 269 Cal St. Fullerton W 82-70 85%    
  Thu, Feb 19 277 @Long Beach St. W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 89 UC San Diego W 72-71 50%    
  Thu, Feb 26 221 @Cal St. Northridge W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 150 UC Santa Barbara W 72-67 69%    
  Thu, Mar 5 250 Cal Poly W 83-72 84%    
  Sat, Mar 7 198 UC Davis W 71-63 77%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.3 6.9 4.4 1.8 0.4 24.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.7 8.3 5.8 1.9 0.2 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.5 7.3 6.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 22.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.4 5.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.8 10.7 13.7 15.4 15.0 12.5 8.9 4.6 1.8 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
18-2 95.8% 4.4    3.9 0.6 0.0
17-3 78.5% 6.9    4.9 1.9 0.1
16-4 49.9% 6.3    3.2 2.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 22.6% 3.4    1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1
14-6 5.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 15.4 7.1 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 53.3% 52.5% 0.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7%
19-1 1.8% 49.1% 48.7% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.7%
18-2 4.6% 44.3% 44.3% 12.3 0.1 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.6
17-3 8.9% 39.2% 39.2% 12.6 0.1 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.4
16-4 12.5% 31.1% 31.1% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 8.6
15-5 15.0% 24.4% 24.4% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 11.4
14-6 15.4% 17.9% 17.9% 13.5 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 12.7
13-7 13.7% 11.1% 11.1% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 12.1
12-8 10.7% 8.5% 8.5% 14.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.7
11-9 7.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.4
10-10 4.5% 3.0% 3.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4
9-11 2.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.5
8-12 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.0 8.1 4.6 1.4 0.1 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.6 2.9 2.9 11.8 5.9 70.6 5.9