UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.1 #125
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #129
Pace 67.1 #227
Improvement -6.7 #364

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #148 B- D+ B- D B
Defense #116 B- C C- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.21 #118 +3.1 #80
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #325 0.74 #191 -3.0 #321
Three Pointers 45% #98 1.04 #152 +2.5 #96
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #106 +2.6 #106
Freethrows 0.26 #295 69% #291 0.18 #313
Second Chance 27.3% #267 1.01 #228 0.28 #268
Turnovers 15.0% #92
Total Offense +0.3 #148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #313 1.05 #62 +4.6 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #212 0.76 #189 +0.4 #157
Three Pointers 47% #37 0.97 #114 -1.9 #276
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #80 +3.1 #79
Freethrows 0.26 #62 67% #19 0.18 #35
Second Chance 29.5% #137 1.07 #226 0.32 #175
Turnovers 15.7% #221
Total Defense +1.7 #116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #37 -0.4% #133
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.6% #131 -5.6% #70
Possession Length 16.5 #93 18.3 #308
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #119 0.16 #153
Improvement -8.1 #365 +1.5 #95

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 15.0% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 96.1% 81.9%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.9% 15.0% 10.3%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Away) - 56.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 310 - 411 - 7
Quad 410 - 521 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 302 Houston Christian W 78 - 60 89% +13  1 - 0 +7 -2 C+ D- C- +9 C A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 149 @Fresno St. W 78 - 73 44% +4  2 - 0 +9 +9 A+ B- F -0 D+ B- C+
 Sat, Nov 15 195 Idaho W 75 - 67 76% -3  3 - 0 +3 -1 C D C- +4 A- C C
 Mon, Nov 24 148 Temple W 91 - 76 56% +9  4 - 0 +16 +19 A+ F A+ -3 A- F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 126 Bradley W 87 - 77 50% +3  5 - 0 +12 +15 C A+ A+ -3 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 170 Towson W 87 - 73 61% +13  6 - 0 +13 +24 A+ C A+ -9 C+ C- D
 Tue, Dec 2 72 @Nevada L 70 - 76 20% -4  6 - 1 +5 +8 D- A+ A+ -3 C- D C
 Sat, Dec 6 254 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 74 67% +4  7 - 1 1 - 0 +4 +9 A+ F C+ -5 D+ B D-
 Sat, Dec 13 178 Tulane W 93 - 67 63% +16  8 - 1 +25 +10 B D B +12 A- B+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 160 @Loyola Marymount W 67 - 57 47% +3  9 - 1 +13 -2 B C F +15 B- A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 202 San Diego L 80 - 82 76% -7  9 - 2 -7 +12 B- C A+ -19 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 272 @Cal Poly L 65 - 67 70% +2  9 - 3 1 - 1 -5 -7 F B D+ +1 A D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 103 Hawaii W 83 - 73 51% +7  10 - 3 2 - 1 +12 +18 A- A A -6 C+ D D
 Thu, Jan 8 216 Cal St. Fullerton L 71 - 88 79% -4  10 - 4 2 - 2 -23 -4 F A- F -20 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 288 @UC Riverside W 69 - 66 72% -1  11 - 4 3 - 2 -1 +1 C+ C- F+ -2 B+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 204 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 84 77% -2  11 - 5 3 - 3 -11 +1 D- C+ A+ -11 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 320 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83 - 62 79% +13  12 - 5 4 - 3 +14 +6 C- D A+ +8 C+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 198 @UC Davis W 80 - 74 55% +1  13 - 5 5 - 3 +7 +3 B D- F+ +4 A+ B D
 Sat, Jan 24 114 UC Irvine L 59 - 61 58% -1  13 - 6 5 - 4 -2 -9 C+ F A- +8 B A D
 Thu, Jan 29 133 UC Santa Barbara L 48 - 62 63% -9  13 - 7 5 - 5 -15 -25 D F F +9 A+ B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 204 @Cal St. Northridge W 79 - 77 56%
 Thu, Feb 5 254 Long Beach St. W 77 - 67 84%
 Sun, Feb 8 103 @Hawaii L 67 - 73 29%
 Thu, Feb 12 198 UC Davis W 78 - 71 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 288 UC Riverside W 77 - 65 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 114 @UC Irvine L 67 - 71 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 320 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 67 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 272 Cal Poly W 86 - 75 85%
 Thu, Mar 5 216 @Cal St. Fullerton W 78 - 76 59%
 Sat, Mar 7 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 70 - 73 40%
Totals 19 - 11 11 - 9 +2 +0 B- D+ B- +2 B- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 0.7 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.2 0.4 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 9.0 10.0 1.9 0.0 22.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 13.5 14.2 3.4 0.1 33.9 4th
5th 1.2 7.3 8.2 1.6 0.0 18.2 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 4.8 1.2 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.0 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.2 7.4 15.7 24.7 25.2 16.8 6.3 1.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 63.0% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
14-6 18.0% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.1% 38.4% 38.4% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.7
14-6 6.3% 29.1% 29.1% 12.6 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.1 4.5
13-7 16.8% 19.7% 19.7% 12.9 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 13.5
12-8 25.2% 14.6% 14.6% 13.2 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.1 21.6
11-9 24.7% 9.6% 9.6% 13.5 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.1 22.3
10-10 15.7% 6.1% 6.1% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 14.8
9-11 7.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.1
8-12 2.2% 3.4% 3.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-13 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 13.1 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.9 15.7 78.3 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%