Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #256
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 #272
Pace 73.6 #59
Improvement -2.7 #302

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #166 C+ C- C- C- B-
Defense #324 D- C- C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #40 1.18 #153 +4.0 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #256 0.71 #242 -1.8 #273
Three Pointers 39% #235 1.03 #172 -1.0 #219
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #141 +1.2 #137
Freethrows 0.29 #218 69% #277 0.20 #231
Second Chance 27.7% #262 1.04 #196 0.29 #249
Turnovers 17.2% #237
Total Offense -0.1 #166

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #37 1.23 #280 -5.0 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #192 0.95 #363 -1.8 #320
Three Pointers 36% #316 1.11 #301 +1.0 #145
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #338 -5.8 #339
Freethrows 0.34 #302 74% #294 0.25 #313
Second Chance 34.3% #315 0.98 #94 0.34 #232
Turnovers 17.6% #105
Total Defense -5.2 #324

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #63 0.9% #256
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.5% #169 10.3% #337
Possession Length 16.8 #119 16.6 #60
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #80 0.17 #180
Improvement +5.0 #3 -7.7 #365

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 4.0% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 44.0% 30.0% 53.6%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 105 - 14
Quad 45 - 710 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 283 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 68% +2  0 - 1 -11 -10 F D+ F -1 B- C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 213 @Colgate W 68 - 65 31% -1  1 - 1 +3 -3 D F A- +6 B B+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 177 @Harvard W 77 - 60 25% +9  2 - 1 +19 +9 C C A +11 A B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 198 Vermont L 74 - 85 51% -0  2 - 2 -17 -3 D A F -14 F B- B+
 Thu, Nov 20 212 @Princeton L 57 - 70 31% -10  2 - 3 -13 -12 F D F -2 A- F A
 Sat, Nov 22 122 Duquesne W 93 - 86 23% +3  3 - 3 +9 +5 A+ D- F +3 D A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 68 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 7% -7  3 - 4 -2 +3 A+ F F -4 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 325 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 56% -13  3 - 5 -24 -14 F D+ F -11 F B- D
 Sun, Dec 7 296 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 70% +14  4 - 5 +6 -5 C- C- D +12 A+ A D
 Sat, Dec 20 76 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 8% -7  4 - 6 +3 +16 A+ B C -13 F C C+
 Mon, Dec 22 109 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 13% -6  4 - 7 -1 +15 A+ D- C+ -17 F F D
 Mon, Dec 29 193 @Elon L 91 - 103 27% -5  4 - 8 0 - 1 -11 +13 A+ D D- -23 F F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 293 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 47% +4  5 - 8 1 - 1 +7 +15 B+ B- B- -8 C- D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 207 @Campbell L 82 - 97 30% -8  5 - 9 1 - 2 -15 +5 C+ D+ B- -19 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 121 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 32% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -9 +2 B- D+ A- -11 C C- B
 Sat, Jan 10 163 Towson L 78 - 87 43% -6  5 - 11 1 - 4 -12 +8 B D A+ -20 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 193 Elon W 85 - 78 49% +4  6 - 11 2 - 4 +2 +0 D+ A+ C+ +1 D+ B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 186 @Monmouth L 68 - 81 27% -1  6 - 12 2 - 5 -12 -4 C F F -8 D D F
 Thu, Jan 22 238 Stony Brook L 80 - 95 58% -9  6 - 13 2 - 6 -22 +2 D A+ A- -24 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 24 201 @Drexel L 78 - 83 29% -6  6 - 14 2 - 7 -5 +8 C+ C+ A -13 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 160 College of Charleston L 79 - 81 41%
 Thu, Feb 5 129 @Hofstra L 73 - 83 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 238 @Stony Brook L 74 - 78 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 133 William & Mary L 84 - 88 35%
 Thu, Feb 19 201 Drexel W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 129 Hofstra L 76 - 80 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 133 @William & Mary L 81 - 91 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 235 @Hampton L 73 - 77 35%
 Tue, Mar 3 186 Monmouth L 75 - 76 49%
Totals 9 - 20 5 - 13 -5 +0 C+ C- C- -5 D- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 0.3 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.1 2.9 8th
9th 0.4 3.5 1.3 5.2 9th
10th 0.2 2.9 5.4 0.3 8.8 10th
11th 0.2 3.5 8.9 2.8 0.0 15.5 11th
12th 0.2 3.1 11.3 16.6 7.4 0.4 38.9 12th
13th 2.7 8.3 9.5 4.4 0.5 0.0 25.3 13th
Total 2.9 11.3 21.0 24.7 20.1 12.9 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 1.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-10 5.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.2
7-11 12.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.7
6-12 20.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 20.0
5-13 24.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 24.5
4-14 21.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.0
3-15 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.3
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%