Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.0 #102
Expected Predictive Rating +4.6 #96
Pace 59.3 #365
Improvement -4.4 #336

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #62 A B- D B- C+
Defense #196 C C C- B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.30 #49 +0.5 #159
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #287 0.73 #214 -2.1 #280
Three Pointers 49% #34 1.27 #1 +10.3 #3
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #11 +8.8 #9
Freethrows 0.31 #148 77% #36 0.24 #101
Second Chance 32.8% #118 1.14 #71 0.37 #72
Turnovers 18.6% #309
Total Offense +5.8 #62

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #325 1.23 #282 +2.4 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #109 0.81 #272 -1.2 #282
Three Pointers 45% #60 0.96 #109 -1.1 #226
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 +0.1 #177
Freethrows 0.27 #72 68% #31 0.18 #51
Second Chance 27.5% #78 1.19 #333 0.33 #202
Turnovers 15.5% #238
Total Defense -0.8 #196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #142 -1.3% #75
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.2% #6 1.2% #204
Possession Length 19.3 #340 18.4 #323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #155 0.13 #55
Improvement -6.4 #365 +2.0 #62

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 11.8
.500 or above 87.9% 95.9% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 35.4% 52.7% 20.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round1.7% 2.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 64 - 10
Quad 34 - 29 - 13
Quad 49 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 240 Incarnate Word W 98 - 64 87% +18  1 - 0 +27 +28 A+ A+ B- +1 B- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 243 Nebraska Omaha W 97 - 74 88% +8  2 - 0 +15 +27 A+ A+ D -10 D+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 12 289 Cal Poly W 93 - 79 92% +9  3 - 0 +4 +8 B+ C- C -6 D A- D-
 Sun, Nov 16 280 @Loyola Chicago W 80 - 67 80% +12  4 - 0 +9 +17 B+ A+ D -6 F B- B+
 Fri, Nov 21 284 Denver L 81 - 83 91% -2  4 - 1 -12 +11 B- A+ F -24 F C F
 Wed, Nov 26 59 Virginia Tech L 64 - 66 34% -3  4 - 2 +7 +4 C- B+ C+ +3 C- A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 99 Wichita St. W 76 - 70 49% +10  5 - 2 +11 +20 A+ D- D+ -8 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 28 67 South Florida W 83 - 68 37% +8  6 - 2 +23 +15 A+ C+ F+ +9 A+ A- D
 Sat, Dec 6 80 Colorado W 91 - 86 53% +4  7 - 2 +9 +22 A+ D C -13 F B- F
 Tue, Dec 9 237 Dartmouth W 76 - 55 87% +9  8 - 2 +14 +8 A+ F F +8 B B+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 38 @Utah St. L 58 - 100 14% -24  8 - 3 0 - 1 -26 -2 D C- D -27 F F C
 Tue, Dec 30 74 Nevada L 62 - 75 51% -4  8 - 4 0 - 2 -8 -3 D B+ C+ -6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 75 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 60 29% +10  9 - 4 1 - 2 +21 +15 A- C D- +7 A+ C- C
 Tue, Jan 6 43 New Mexico L 70 - 80 36% -7  9 - 5 1 - 3 -1 +8 B A+ C- -10 D- F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 125 UNLV W 70 - 62 71% +0  10 - 5 2 - 3 +7 +3 C- A+ F+ +5 A- D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 149 @Fresno St. L 69 - 79 56% -7  10 - 6 2 - 4 -6 +9 A- D- C+ -17 C D- F
 Fri, Jan 16 58 @Boise St. L 73 - 79 24% -6  10 - 7 2 - 5 +6 +16 A+ F F -10 C- F B-
 Tue, Jan 20 347 Air Force W 81 - 52 96% +17  11 - 7 3 - 5 +14 +10 A- D A+ +7 A A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 38 Utah St. L 61 - 65 30% +4  11 - 8 3 - 6 +6 -0 A+ A+ F +6 B- A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 41 @San Diego St. L 50 - 73 18% -10  11 - 9 3 - 7 -8 -6 F+ C+ F -5 D+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 116 @Wyoming L 71 - 72 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 249 San Jose St. W 76 - 63 88%
 Tue, Feb 10 347 @Air Force W 73 - 59 90%
 Sat, Feb 14 116 Wyoming W 74 - 69 68%
 Wed, Feb 18 125 @UNLV L 74 - 75 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 41 San Diego St. L 68 - 72 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 149 Fresno St. W 74 - 66 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 249 @San Jose St. W 73 - 66 73%
 Wed, Mar 4 43 @New Mexico L 68 - 78 18%
 Sat, Mar 7 58 Boise St. L 69 - 70 44%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 11 +5 +6 A B- D -1 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.9 4th
5th 0.3 1.7 1.5 0.2 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 6.3 6.4 1.4 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 12.3 11.4 2.8 0.1 29.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 11.1 10.6 2.2 0.0 25.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 6.5 6.5 1.2 0.0 15.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.9 11.9 20.9 25.6 20.3 11.1 3.5 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.5% 9.5% 3.8% 5.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.9%
12-8 3.5% 5.5% 5.1% 0.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 0.4%
11-9 11.1% 3.9% 3.8% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.6 0.1%
10-10 20.3% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 11.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 19.8 0.0%
9-11 25.6% 1.3% 1.3% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 25.2
8-12 20.9% 0.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.1 0.0 20.7
7-13 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8
6-14 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 4.9
5-15 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 11.6 98.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 11.4% 11.0 11.4