Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.4 #59
Expected Predictive Rating +11.8 #49
Pace 69.9 #152
Improvement -0.6 #219

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #74 B- B- B B- C-
Defense #59 B C B- B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #239 1.31 #33 +1.6 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #151 0.70 #269 -0.1 #178
Three Pointers 42% #162 1.07 #111 +1.4 #132
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #97 +2.9 #96
Freethrows 0.34 #77 73% #176 0.25 #93
Second Chance 32.5% #130 1.13 #74 0.37 #77
Turnovers 14.3% #57
Total Offense +4.6 #74

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.11 #119 +1.1 #136
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #69 0.79 #246 -1.9 #323
Three Pointers 38% #276 0.84 #13 +5.0 #17
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #57 +4.2 #57
Freethrows 0.24 #23 72% #188 0.17 #27
Second Chance 30.5% #177 1.02 #137 0.31 #158
Turnovers 18.5% #68
Total Defense +4.8 #59

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #229 -1.0% #88
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.3% #79 -7.3% #55
Possession Length 16.8 #118 17.9 #263
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #199 0.08 #6
Improvement -1.3 #253 +0.7 #146

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.3% 52.0% 24.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.1% 51.6% 24.1%
Average Seed 10.1 9.7 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 47.3% 77.8% 42.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four12.8% 17.7% 12.0%
First Round21.0% 42.1% 17.4%
Second Round6.9% 14.1% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 2.6% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 14.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 25 - 28 - 12
Quad 36 - 114 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 234 Charleston Southern W 98 - 67 93% +13  1 - 0 +24 +13 B- A+ B +8 A- B+ B
 Sat, Nov 8 66 Providence W 107 - 101 OT 53% +0  2 - 0 +14 +11 B+ B+ B+ +2 B+ C+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 139 Saint Joseph's W 94 - 59 85% +20  3 - 0 +33 +18 A+ B A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 165 Charlotte W 84 - 76 88% +8  4 - 0 +5 +11 F+ B A+ -6 B+ D- F
 Wed, Nov 19 344 Bryant W 78 - 61 98% +5  5 - 0 +2 +1 C A+ C- +1 D+ B C+
 Wed, Nov 26 102 Colorado St. W 66 - 64 66% +3  6 - 0 +7 +1 B F B +7 A+ D+ C-
 Thu, Nov 27 42 St. Mary's L 66 - 77 40% -8  6 - 1 +1 +1 D+ D+ C+ -1 D+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 68 - 86 46% -10  6 - 2 -8 -2 C- C+ C- -5 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 90 @South Carolina W 86 - 83 OT 51% +4  7 - 2 +12 +9 B+ A B+ +2 C A+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 86 George Mason W 73 - 62 71% +10  8 - 2 +15 +8 A- D B- +8 A D A+
 Thu, Dec 11 274 Western Carolina W 96 - 74 95% +15  9 - 2 +13 +13 A A C- -1 C C+ B-
 Sun, Dec 14 332 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 53 97% +10  10 - 2 +15 +11 A+ D- A- +6 B+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 193 Elon W 82 - 81 OT 90% -6  11 - 2 -4 +4 D A+ D- -8 C F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 22 Virginia W 95 - 85 3OT 34% +8  12 - 2 1 - 0 +24 +2 D- A C+ +19 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 68 @Wake Forest L 78 - 81 42% -4  12 - 3 1 - 1 +8 +7 A- C F +2 A F+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 84 Stanford L 68 - 69 71% +5  12 - 4 1 - 2 +3 +9 C+ C- A -6 C- C- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 69 California W 78 - 75 65% -2  13 - 4 2 - 2 +8 +13 B B+ B- -4 C+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 14 37 @SMU L 76 - 77 24% +0  13 - 5 2 - 3 +16 +10 B C+ A- +6 A- A- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 81 Notre Dame W 89 - 76 69% +11  14 - 5 3 - 3 +17 +17 B+ A+ D -0 B+ D- B
 Wed, Jan 21 76 @Syracuse W 76 - 74 45% -2  15 - 5 4 - 3 +13 +8 B- D- A+ +5 A- B- A
 Sat, Jan 24 19 @Louisville L 71 - 85 15% -9  15 - 6 4 - 4 +6 +6 A+ D+ D+ +1 A- F A+
 Tue, Jan 27 111 Georgia Tech W 71 - 65 80% +5  16 - 6 5 - 4 +7 +0 F B A- +6 B A- B
 Sat, Jan 31 3 Duke L 69 - 80 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 24 @North Carolina St. L 73 - 82 19%
 Wed, Feb 11 32 @Clemson L 65 - 73 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 105 Florida St. W 83 - 75 77%
 Tue, Feb 17 40 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 79 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 68 Wake Forest W 78 - 74 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 28 @North Carolina L 74 - 82 21%
 Tue, Mar 3 132 Boston College W 75 - 64 84%
 Sat, Mar 7 22 @Virginia L 69 - 79 17%
Totals 19 - 12 8 - 10 +9 +5 B- B- B +5 B C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.4 1.8 0.3 2.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 2.1 0.1 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.8 6.3 0.9 10.1 7th
8th 1.8 9.4 4.2 0.1 15.5 8th
9th 0.8 9.9 10.0 0.9 21.5 9th
10th 0.0 4.1 12.6 3.3 0.0 20.0 10th
11th 0.5 7.3 4.3 0.2 12.3 11th
12th 1.5 4.4 0.6 6.5 12th
13th 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 13th
14th 0.2 1.1 0.1 1.4 14th
15th 0.2 0.2 0.5 15th
16th 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.6 5.3 17.6 29.3 25.9 14.5 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.2% 93.1% 2.4% 90.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.9%
11-7 5.3% 82.8% 1.5% 81.3% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.9 82.6%
10-8 14.5% 63.0% 0.7% 62.3% 10.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.9 3.0 5.4 62.7%
9-9 25.9% 36.4% 0.4% 36.1% 10.5 0.1 0.8 2.9 5.7 0.1 16.5 36.2%
8-10 29.3% 12.2% 0.2% 12.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 0.2 25.7 12.1%
7-11 17.6% 2.1% 2.1% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 17.2 2.1%
6-12 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 5.3 0.1%
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.3% 0.4% 28.0% 10.1 71.7 28.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%