Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.3 #235
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 #233
Pace 74.4 #46
Improvement +3.4 #49

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #224 C+ C- D C C
Defense #247 C C F C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #351 1.07 #284 -6.5 #349
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #253 0.71 #250 -1.8 #272
Three Pointers 53% #12 1.15 #27 +9.9 #4
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #128 +1.6 #130
Freethrows 0.31 #163 72% #214 0.22 #164
Second Chance 25.6% #311 1.15 #63 0.29 #231
Turnovers 18.7% #318
Total Offense -2.0 #224

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #33 1.20 #244 -4.5 #328
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #202 0.74 #142 +0.5 #152
Three Pointers 36% #313 0.90 #40 +4.8 #18
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #152 +0.8 #152
Freethrows 0.28 #116 72% #165 0.20 #118
Second Chance 30.3% #169 1.03 #158 0.31 #166
Turnovers 10.9% #365
Total Defense -2.2 #247

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #208 1.1% #271
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #119 -2.7% #131
Possession Length 16.8 #122 16.9 #109
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #303 0.17 #188
Improvement +1.9 #82 +1.4 #95

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 7.7% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 8.9% 34.1% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 44.8% 79.5% 41.8%
Conference Champion 1.7% 15.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 15.7% 3.3% 16.7%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.7%
First Round2.6% 7.2% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Away) - 7.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 47 - 710 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 159 Marist L 56 - 75 45% -8  0 - 1 -22 -15 F D+ F -6 C- C+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 348 @Bryant L 75 - 82 69% -1  0 - 2 -16 -5 C- F D- -11 F+ B+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 197 Appalachian St. L 77 - 85 54% -5  0 - 3 -13 +1 A- D+ F -14 F C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 29 230 @St. Peter's W 87 - 61 37% +7  1 - 3 +25 +22 A+ B A- +5 A- D D
 Wed, Dec 3 314 New Hampshire W 69 - 68 78% -2  2 - 3 -11 -7 C+ F F -5 B- B F
 Sat, Dec 6 113 @Wyoming L 80 - 93 16% -1  2 - 4 -7 +6 A B- F -13 F A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 99 @Colorado St. L 55 - 76 13% -9  2 - 5 -13 -11 D+ D- F -4 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 286 Boston University W 77 - 64 71% +9  3 - 5 +3 +1 C F D+ +3 A+ B- D-
 Tue, Dec 16 323 @Holy Cross W 89 - 64 60% +11  4 - 5 +18 +16 A+ C F +3 A- B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 277 @Sacred Heart L 63 - 85 48% -8  4 - 6 -26 -17 F C- F -7 A- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 5 @Florida L 72 - 94 1% -21  4 - 7 +2 +7 A C B -4 C+ D C
 Mon, Jan 5 178 @Harvard W 76 - 68 29% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +10 +11 A- B+ C- -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 174 @Cornell W 102 - 91 28% +8  6 - 7 2 - 0 +13 +16 B B+ A+ -4 B C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 192 Penn L 74 - 84 53% -1  6 - 8 2 - 1 -15 -5 D C- D -10 D C F
 Mon, Jan 19 213 Princeton W 71 - 69 57% -3  7 - 8 3 - 1 -4 +8 B- D+ A -12 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 169 Columbia L 69 - 79 49% -4  7 - 9 3 - 2 -14 -8 D- B+ D -6 B- B+ F+
 Fri, Jan 30 71 @Yale L 72 - 87 8%
 Sat, Jan 31 265 @Brown L 70 - 71 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 178 Harvard W 73 - 72 51%
 Fri, Feb 13 71 Yale L 75 - 84 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 265 Brown W 73 - 68 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 169 @Columbia L 76 - 82 27%
 Fri, Feb 27 192 @Penn L 77 - 82 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 213 @Princeton L 71 - 75 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 174 Cornell W 91 - 90 50%
Totals 10 - 15 6 - 8 -4 -2 C+ C- D -2 C C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.7 1st
2nd 1.3 6.6 4.3 1.1 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 8.3 6.5 0.7 15.9 3rd
4th 5.3 10.6 0.9 16.8 4th
5th 2.0 13.2 2.6 0.1 17.8 5th
6th 0.6 9.0 5.9 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 0.2 4.9 7.1 0.3 12.5 7th
8th 2.1 3.8 0.5 6.4 8th
Total 2.3 9.3 18.6 25.0 22.9 14.1 5.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
11-3 90.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1
10-4 40.6% 0.8    0.3 0.5 0.0
9-5 8.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.4% 28.4% 28.4% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.3
10-4 1.9% 11.0% 11.0% 14.7 0.1 0.2 1.7
9-5 5.4% 11.1% 11.1% 14.9 0.1 0.5 4.8
8-6 14.1% 8.0% 8.0% 15.3 0.8 0.4 13.0
7-7 22.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.1 0.6 22.2
6-8 25.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 24.8
5-9 18.6% 18.6
4-10 9.3% 9.3
3-11 2.3% 2.3
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.3 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%