UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#141
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#210
Pace77.1#29
Improvement-2.1#314

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#138
First Shot+1.4#138
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#207
Layup/Dunks+3.7#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#303
Freethrows+1.7#87
Improvement-4.7#364

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#151
First Shot+2.6#94
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#312
Layups/Dunks+0.9#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#25
Freethrows-1.8#296
Improvement+2.5#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.2
.500 or above 15.8% 19.5% 6.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.6% 33.2% 13.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.2% 8.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 64 - 11
Quad 33 - 48 - 16
Quad 45 - 413 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 252 Tennessee Martin L 81-86 82%     0 - 1 -13.1 -4.4 -8.1
  Sat, Nov 8 225 Chattanooga W 101-69 78%     1 - 1 +25.3 +25.8 +0.5
  Tue, Nov 11 205 Montana L 93-102 76%     1 - 2 -14.9 +3.3 -16.9
  Sun, Nov 16 75 @Memphis W 92-78 19%     2 - 2 +24.7 +14.1 +8.9
  Thu, Nov 20 173 Saint Joseph's W 99-85 70%     3 - 2 +10.0 +13.8 -5.5
  Mon, Nov 24 94 Maryland L 67-74 35%     3 - 3 -1.5 -6.1 +4.9
  Tue, Nov 25 15 Alabama L 76-115 7%     3 - 4 -21.4 +0.0 -17.1
  Thu, Nov 27 132 Rutgers L 65-80 49%     3 - 5 -13.3 -5.8 -7.6
  Sun, Dec 7 92 @Stanford W 75-74 24%     4 - 5 +9.7 +3.8 +5.9
  Sat, Dec 13 235 Tennessee St. L 60-63 79%     4 - 6 -10.1 -14.1 +4.1
  Sat, Dec 20 183 Fresno St. W 82-76 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 324 Air Force W 78-64 91%    
  Tue, Jan 6 97 @Wyoming L 76-83 26%    
  Fri, Jan 9 72 @Colorado St. L 72-81 19%    
  Tue, Jan 13 47 Boise St. L 71-78 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 188 @San Jose St. W 77-76 51%    
  Tue, Jan 20 46 @Utah St. L 73-86 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 52 San Diego St. L 76-82 29%    
  Tue, Jan 27 71 New Mexico L 80-83 38%    
  Fri, Jan 30 98 @Nevada L 73-80 27%    
  Tue, Feb 3 183 @Fresno St. L 79-80 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 91 Grand Canyon L 76-77 45%    
  Tue, Feb 10 188 San Jose St. W 79-73 71%    
  Fri, Feb 13 47 @Boise St. L 68-81 13%    
  Wed, Feb 18 72 Colorado St. L 75-78 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 324 @Air Force W 75-67 77%    
  Wed, Feb 25 91 @Grand Canyon L 73-80 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 98 Nevada L 76-77 47%    
  Tue, Mar 3 46 Utah St. L 76-83 27%    
  Fri, Mar 6 52 @San Diego St. L 73-85 14%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.4 5.4 1.4 0.1 16.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 4.0 7.7 5.8 1.7 0.1 20.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.5 5.9 3.7 1.0 0.1 16.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.4 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 5.4 8.8 11.9 14.3 15.2 13.1 10.6 7.5 4.7 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 66.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 27.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 12.9% 9.7% 3.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6%
15-5 0.6% 6.0% 5.4% 0.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6%
14-6 1.3% 7.0% 7.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.6% 4.4% 4.4% 11.4 0.1 0.1 2.4
12-8 4.7% 3.0% 3.0% 11.7 0.0 0.1 4.6
11-9 7.5% 1.5% 1.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.4
10-10 10.6% 1.1% 1.1% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
9-11 13.1% 0.7% 0.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.0
8-12 15.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.1 0.0 15.1
7-13 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 14.3
6-14 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
5-15 8.8% 8.8
4-16 5.4% 5.4
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.1 0.0%