UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.1 #125
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #132
Pace 73.9 #55
Improvement +1.8 #99

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #128 B- C- C B B-
Defense #145 B- C- B- D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #30 1.18 #145 +4.5 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #201 0.88 #44 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 35% #300 1.05 #131 -2.3 #262
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #96 +2.9 #95
Freethrows 0.38 #9 68% #305 0.26 #44
Second Chance 32.5% #127 0.87 #357 0.28 #254
Turnovers 16.3% #170
Total Offense +1.5 #128

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #71 1.08 #81 -0.7 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.77 #202 -0.3 #203
Three Pointers 36% #297 0.95 #87 +3.5 #51
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #96 +2.6 #95
Freethrows 0.36 #330 71% #107 0.26 #321
Second Chance 32.0% #254 1.09 #243 0.35 #259
Turnovers 18.3% #73
Total Defense +0.6 #145

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #100 0.5% #215
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.4% #105 -5.5% #76
Possession Length 16.0 #55 17.4 #196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #114 0.14 #63
Improvement -0.7 #226 +2.5 #50

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.6 12.5
.500 or above 21.7% 43.1% 16.0%
.500 or above in Conference 45.8% 72.2% 38.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 4
Quad 23 - 75 - 11
Quad 34 - 49 - 15
Quad 45 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 231 Tennessee Martin L 81 - 86 81% +18  0 - 1 -12 -3 D B+ F -8 A+ D- B
 Sat, Nov 8 254 Chattanooga W 101 - 69 83% +11  1 - 1 +24 +27 A A+ B -2 D+ C B
 Tue, Nov 11 161 Montana L 93 - 102 69% -6  1 - 2 -12 +7 A- F+ B -17 D- F D
 Sun, Nov 16 100 @Memphis W 92 - 78 28% +11  2 - 2 +22 +16 A+ F B +5 A C- B+
 Thu, Nov 20 139 Saint Joseph's W 99 - 85 64% +4  3 - 2 +12 +16 B C+ C -5 C A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 106 Maryland L 67 - 74 41% +0  3 - 3 -3 -6 D F C- +4 B D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 16 Alabama L 76 - 115 8% -16  3 - 4 -21 +0 B D- B -17 F+ F+ B+
 Thu, Nov 27 119 Rutgers L 65 - 80 47% -3  3 - 5 -12 -6 D+ F A+ -6 B+ D+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 84 @Stanford W 75 - 74 23% -2  4 - 5 +11 +5 B D C +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 229 Tennessee St. L 60 - 63 80% +2  4 - 6 -10 -18 F F F +8 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 149 Fresno St. W 84 - 72 67% +4  5 - 6 1 - 0 +10 +14 A+ A- C -5 B- F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 347 Air Force W 67 - 39 94% +15  6 - 6 2 - 0 +13 -5 F+ B C- +20 A+ B C
 Tue, Jan 6 116 @Wyoming L 66 - 98 35% -20  6 - 7 2 - 1 -26 -7 D D+ C- -18 F F B
 Fri, Jan 9 102 @Colorado St. L 62 - 70 29% -0  6 - 8 2 - 2 +0 -4 D C F +4 A+ F A-
 Tue, Jan 13 58 Boise St. W 89 - 85 OT 34% +0  7 - 8 3 - 2 +10 +9 B+ B- C+ +1 C A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 249 @San Jose St. W 76 - 62 65% +7  8 - 8 4 - 2 +12 +20 A+ F A+ -4 C- B- A
 Tue, Jan 20 38 @Utah St. W 86 - 76 10% -3  9 - 8 5 - 2 +26 +22 A A- A- +5 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 41 San Diego St. L 71 - 82 26% -4  9 - 9 5 - 3 -2 +7 A+ D+ C+ -9 F A+ B
 Tue, Jan 27 43 New Mexico L 61 - 89 26% -18  9 - 10 5 - 4 -19 -10 D- F+ D+ -8 D A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 30 74 @Nevada L 71 - 80 21%
 Tue, Feb 3 149 @Fresno St. L 75 - 76 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 75 Grand Canyon L 73 - 76 40%
 Tue, Feb 10 249 San Jose St. W 80 - 70 83%
 Fri, Feb 13 58 @Boise St. L 70 - 80 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 102 Colorado St. W 75 - 74 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 347 @Air Force W 76 - 65 85%
 Wed, Feb 25 75 @Grand Canyon L 70 - 79 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 74 Nevada L 74 - 77 41%
 Tue, Mar 3 38 Utah St. L 75 - 83 23%
 Fri, Mar 6 41 @San Diego St. L 69 - 82 12%
Totals 13 - 17 9 - 11 +2 +2 B- C- C +1 B- C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.3 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.4 3.4 3.4 0.4 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 7.1 7.9 1.4 0.0 17.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.9 12.8 12.5 2.9 0.1 31.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 10.6 9.3 1.8 0.0 23.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.9 4.8 0.9 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 2.1 8.9 18.7 24.3 21.7 14.5 6.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.1
14-6 0.5% 5.1% 5.1% 11.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 11.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-8 6.7% 1.3% 1.3% 11.3 0.1 0.0 6.6
11-9 14.5% 0.8% 0.8% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.4
10-10 21.7% 0.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.6
9-11 24.3% 0.2% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3
8-12 18.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 18.6
7-13 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
6-14 2.1% 2.1
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 12.1 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%