Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.4 #38
Expected Predictive Rating +13.3 #40
Pace 68.5 #188
Improvement -0.2 #188

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #32 B+ A B- C B+
Defense #54 B C A C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #37 1.27 #71 +6.3 #16
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #327 0.82 #93 -2.5 #302
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.09 #87 +2.1 #117
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #40 +5.9 #41
Freethrows 0.31 #174 73% #148 0.22 #158
Second Chance 37.5% #18 1.25 #11 0.47 #9
Turnovers 14.9% #88
Total Offense +8.3 #32

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #316 1.04 #50 +5.2 #39
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #67 0.69 #75 -0.6 #228
Three Pointers 43% #130 0.98 #125 +0.0 #175
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #52 +4.5 #51
Freethrows 0.31 #209 72% #156 0.22 #208
Second Chance 31.3% #216 1.04 #170 0.33 #199
Turnovers 21.5% #7
Total Defense +5.1 #54

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.9% #25 -1.7% #49
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.3% #60 -7.3% #57
Possession Length 16.3 #75 18.3 #312
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #14 0.14 #70
Improvement +1.9 #84 -2.1 #301

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 4.7% 6.5% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.2% 78.3% 63.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.7% 68.0% 50.2%
Average Seed 9.1 8.9 9.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 34.2% 45.2% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.2% 11.2% 14.0%
First Round67.8% 73.3% 57.2%
Second Round33.1% 37.1% 25.4%
Sweet Sixteen8.3% 9.5% 6.1%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.5% 1.9%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b3 - 23 - 3
Quad 28 - 311 - 6
Quad 310 - 120 - 7
Quad 45 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 80 - 77 61% +8  1 - 0 +13 +4 C- A+ F +10 B- A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 215 Weber St. W 83 - 73 96% +4  2 - 0 +4 +5 D- B+ A+ -1 A+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 266 UTEP W 75 - 51 97% +12  3 - 0 +15 +1 C- B F +15 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 175 Tulane W 96 - 75 91% +6  4 - 0 +20 +24 A+ B B+ -4 D- C A-
 Sun, Nov 23 136 Davidson W 94 - 60 86% +17  5 - 0 +36 +23 A+ B+ D +13 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 155 Montana St. W 84 - 81 OT 93% +3  6 - 0 +0 +1 C+ C- B -2 B- C+ A
 Thu, Dec 4 67 @South Florida L 61 - 74 57% -15  6 - 1 -2 -8 F+ D+ C- +6 C- A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 165 @Charlotte W 79 - 53 85% +11  7 - 1 +29 +11 C+ D A+ +20 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 88 Illinois St. W 83 - 78 75% +6  8 - 1 +11 +18 A+ A+ F -7 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 102 Colorado St. W 100 - 58 86% +24  9 - 1 1 - 0 +44 +35 A+ A+ C +13 A+ B A
 Tue, Dec 30 149 @Fresno St. W 72 - 63 82% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +13 -2 B D F +14 A A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 249 San Jose St. W 96 - 78 96% +1  11 - 1 3 - 0 +10 +26 A+ A+ A+ -15 D- C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 347 @Air Force W 99 - 62 97% +20  12 - 1 4 - 0 +28 +31 B A+ A+ -0 C+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 58 @Boise St. W 93 - 68 54% +19  13 - 1 5 - 0 +37 +33 A A+ A- +6 A+ F+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 74 Nevada W 71 - 62 79% +3  14 - 1 6 - 0 +14 +4 B D+ C +10 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 75 @Grand Canyon L 74 - 84 60% -5  14 - 2 6 - 1 +1 +15 D+ A+ A+ -15 F D+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 125 UNLV L 76 - 86 90% +3  14 - 3 6 - 2 -11 +4 C- C+ A+ -15 D+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 23 102 @Colorado St. W 65 - 61 70% -4  15 - 3 7 - 2 +12 +1 C+ D+ C +11 C+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 116 Wyoming W 94 - 62 89% +22  16 - 3 8 - 2 +32 +26 A+ A+ A+ +8 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 41 San Diego St. W 76 - 72 66%
 Wed, Feb 4 43 @New Mexico L 77 - 78 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 116 @Wyoming W 79 - 72 75%
 Tue, Feb 10 149 Fresno St. W 82 - 66 93%
 Sat, Feb 14 100 Memphis W 79 - 68 85%
 Wed, Feb 18 58 Boise St. W 77 - 70 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 74 @Nevada W 75 - 72 59%
 Wed, Feb 25 41 @San Diego St. L 73 - 75 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 75 Grand Canyon W 77 - 68 79%
 Tue, Mar 3 125 @UNLV W 83 - 75 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 43 New Mexico W 80 - 75 66%
Totals 24 - 6 15 - 5 +13 +8 B+ A B- +5 B C A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.3 14.9 10.6 3.0 34.2 1st
2nd 0.4 5.7 14.4 5.9 0.3 26.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.0 11.2 4.5 0.1 20.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.7 3.3 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.3 0.2 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.7 12.4 20.7 24.3 20.8 10.9 3.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 3.0    3.0
17-3 97.7% 10.6    8.9 1.7
16-4 71.3% 14.9    7.1 6.5 1.3 0.0
15-5 22.0% 5.3    0.7 2.4 1.9 0.4 0.0
14-6 1.6% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.2% 34.2 19.6 10.6 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 3.0% 99.3% 49.7% 49.7% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
17-3 10.9% 95.5% 41.7% 53.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 2.7 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.5 92.3%
16-4 20.8% 89.5% 36.1% 53.3% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.5 5.8 4.4 1.2 0.0 2.2 83.5%
15-5 24.3% 79.6% 31.5% 48.0% 9.6 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.4 7.4 3.4 0.0 5.0 70.2%
14-6 20.7% 64.8% 25.1% 39.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.5 4.6 0.0 7.3 53.0%
13-7 12.4% 50.4% 20.0% 30.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.4 0.1 6.2 38.0%
12-8 5.7% 32.5% 18.2% 14.2% 10.7 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.0 3.9 17.4%
11-9 1.9% 21.8% 14.2% 7.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 8.8%
10-10 0.3% 5.1% 3.4% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.3 1.8%
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 73.2% 30.2% 43.0% 9.1 26.8 61.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 4.3 2.7 17.3 37.3 30.0 11.2 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 6.5 3.0 16.2 28.3 39.4 9.1 2.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 97.5% 6.8 2.5 7.6 27.7 32.8 26.1 0.8