Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 #75
Expected Predictive Rating +8.2 #71
Pace 70.0 #150
Improvement +3.4 #45

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #155 C- C+ C B- C+
Defense #24 A- B C+ C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #87 1.19 #135 +2.7 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #204 0.66 #315 -1.4 #249
Three Pointers 39% #226 0.93 #283 -2.7 #280
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #222 -1.4 #222
Freethrows 0.32 #133 76% #52 0.24 #100
Second Chance 34.2% #81 1.00 #235 0.34 #125
Turnovers 16.6% #187
Total Offense +0.2 #155

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #267 1.02 #36 +4.2 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #40 0.76 #183 -2.3 #334
Three Pointers 38% #260 0.83 #8 +5.0 #18
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #17 +6.9 #18
Freethrows 0.33 #277 70% #74 0.23 #244
Second Chance 24.7% #22 1.07 #226 0.26 #56
Turnovers 17.8% #86
Total Defense +7.5 #24

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #133 -1.9% #44
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #237 -11.9% #21
Possession Length 17.8 #224 16.9 #110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #177 0.16 #144
Improvement -0.2 #193 +3.6 #20

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 12.4% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 3.9% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 11.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.9% 98.3%
Conference Champion 6.4% 9.9% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 3.0% 0.9%
First Round8.3% 10.6% 5.4%
Second Round2.0% 2.6% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 6
Quad 25 - 36 - 9
Quad 34 - 211 - 11
Quad 410 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 224 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 71 91% +15  1 - 0 +12 +8 A- B- C- +3 B+ C B
 Fri, Nov 7 221 Youngstown St. L 81 - 90 90% -3  1 - 1 -16 +3 D A+ C -18 D D- F
 Mon, Nov 10 310 Northern Illinois W 88 - 59 95% +17  2 - 1 +17 +8 C+ A+ F+ +8 A D A+
 Sat, Nov 15 26 @Saint Louis L 64 - 78 16% -11  2 - 2 +4 -3 D- D- C +9 B+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 268 Northwestern St. W 85 - 72 93% +8  3 - 2 +4 +7 C C+ C -3 D A+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 104 Utah W 68 - 58 62% +6  4 - 2 +15 -3 F D A+ +18 A+ C A+
 Wed, Nov 26 23 Iowa L 46 - 59 21% -6  4 - 3 +3 -11 C+ F F +12 A+ B- A
 Tue, Dec 2 329 Stetson W 67 - 45 96% +4  5 - 3 +9 -9 F C F +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 63 Oklahoma St. L 78 - 84 46% -2  5 - 4 +3 +8 D A- A+ -5 D- A B+
 Sat, Dec 13 236 Coastal Carolina W 82 - 61 91% +19  6 - 4 +14 +10 D+ A+ A- +5 B B+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 116 @Wyoming W 82 - 70 56% +14  7 - 4 1 - 0 +18 +8 A+ D+ F +10 A+ C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 340 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 78 97% +8  8 - 4 -2 +3 C B D+ -5 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 102 Colorado St. L 60 - 70 71% -10  8 - 5 1 - 1 -8 -8 F C+ C- -1 A- A- B
 Wed, Jan 7 58 @Boise St. W 75 - 58 32% +7  9 - 5 2 - 1 +29 +11 A C- C- +19 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 249 San Jose St. W 76 - 58 92% +14  10 - 5 3 - 1 +10 -2 C+ C D +12 B+ A A
 Tue, Jan 13 43 @New Mexico L 64 - 87 25% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -8 -3 D- F+ A+ -5 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 38 Utah St. W 84 - 74 40% +5  11 - 6 4 - 2 +20 +20 A+ B- A+ +1 A+ C- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 41 San Diego St. W 70 - 69 46% +2  12 - 6 5 - 2 +10 +3 C+ D- D- +7 A+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 149 @Fresno St. W 68 - 57 66% +5  13 - 6 6 - 2 +15 +4 F A+ B- +11 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 74 @Nevada L 60 - 66 OT 38% +2  13 - 7 6 - 3 +5 -10 D- D+ F+ +15 A+ B+ C
 Fri, Jan 30 58 Boise St. W 70 - 69 55%
 Tue, Feb 3 347 Air Force W 77 - 54 98%
 Sat, Feb 7 125 @UNLV W 76 - 73 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 43 New Mexico L 72 - 73 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 249 @San Jose St. W 74 - 64 82%
 Tue, Feb 17 41 @San Diego St. L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 116 Wyoming W 75 - 67 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 125 UNLV W 79 - 70 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 38 @Utah St. L 68 - 77 21%
 Tue, Mar 3 347 @Air Force W 74 - 57 94%
 Sat, Mar 7 149 Fresno St. W 74 - 64 82%
Totals 20 - 11 13 - 7 +8 +0 C- C+ C +8 A- B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.4 3.2 0.6 6.4 1st
2nd 0.3 4.3 7.8 1.3 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.4 12.9 3.1 0.0 21.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.9 14.1 6.0 0.1 26.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.9 10.4 5.9 0.4 20.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.1 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.4 9.0 18.6 25.9 23.8 13.4 4.6 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 95.5% 0.6    0.5 0.2
16-4 70.1% 3.2    1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 17.9% 2.4    0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 2.1 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.7% 58.2% 21.6% 36.6% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 46.7%
16-4 4.6% 31.4% 12.8% 18.6% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.0 3.1 21.3%
15-5 13.4% 18.3% 12.6% 5.7% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 0.1 10.9 6.5%
14-6 23.8% 10.6% 8.8% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 0.1 21.2 2.0%
13-7 25.9% 6.0% 5.5% 0.5% 11.1 0.1 1.3 0.2 24.3 0.5%
12-8 18.6% 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 11.2 0.6 0.2 17.8 0.1%
11-9 9.0% 3.2% 3.2% 11.4 0.2 0.1 8.7
10-10 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 3.3
9-11 0.7% 0.7
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.5% 7.1% 2.4% 10.8 90.5 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.2 27.6 37.9 20.7 13.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 72.7% 10.1 3.0 15.2 27.3 27.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 36.4% 10.6 2.3 9.1 25.0