Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#91
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#142
Pace69.8#176
Improvement+2.3#52

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#137
First Shot+0.7#157
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#150
Layup/Dunks+3.1#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#320
Freethrows+2.7#44
Improvement+0.4#152

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#55
First Shot+5.1#42
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#222
Layups/Dunks+3.3#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#85
Freethrows+1.3#104
Improvement+2.0#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 7.4% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.4
.500 or above 81.7% 91.0% 75.1%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 82.4% 60.5%
Conference Champion 5.8% 9.5% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round5.4% 7.2% 4.1%
Second Round1.3% 1.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 23 - 44 - 10
Quad 35 - 29 - 13
Quad 410 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 224 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90-71 87%     1 - 0 +12.4 +5.7 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 7 166 Youngstown St. L 81-90 81%     1 - 1 -12.5 +5.8 -18.0
  Mon, Nov 10 327 Northern Illinois W 88-59 95%     2 - 1 +16.1 +5.5 +9.8
  Sat, Nov 15 43 @Saint Louis L 64-78 20%     2 - 2 +0.7 -5.7 +7.3
  Fri, Nov 21 273 Northwestern St. W 85-72 91%     3 - 2 +4.1 +7.1 -2.8
  Tue, Nov 25 120 Utah W 68-58 60%     4 - 2 +13.1 -2.6 +16.0
  Wed, Nov 26 20 Iowa L 46-59 17%     4 - 3 +2.7 -12.2 +12.8
  Tue, Dec 2 347 Stetson W 67-45 96%     5 - 3 +7.1 -9.3 +17.6
  Sat, Dec 6 53 Oklahoma St. L 78-84 33%     5 - 4 +4.3 +8.6 -4.3
  Sat, Dec 13 244 Coastal Carolina W 82-61 89%     6 - 4 +13.3 +10.1 +3.9
  Sat, Dec 20 97 @Wyoming L 72-74 42%    
  Mon, Dec 22 355 IU Indianapolis W 95-72 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 72 Colorado St. W 72-71 53%    
  Wed, Jan 7 47 @Boise St. L 65-73 22%    
  Sat, Jan 10 188 San Jose St. W 76-65 84%    
  Tue, Jan 13 71 @New Mexico L 73-78 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 46 Utah St. L 72-75 42%    
  Wed, Jan 21 52 San Diego St. L 72-74 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 183 @Fresno St. W 76-72 65%    
  Tue, Jan 27 98 @Nevada L 70-72 42%    
  Fri, Jan 30 47 Boise St. L 68-70 41%    
  Tue, Feb 3 324 Air Force W 75-57 95%    
  Sat, Feb 7 141 @UNLV W 77-76 55%    
  Wed, Feb 11 71 New Mexico W 76-75 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 188 @San Jose St. W 73-68 66%    
  Tue, Feb 17 52 @San Diego St. L 69-77 25%    
  Sat, Feb 21 97 Wyoming W 75-71 63%    
  Wed, Feb 25 141 UNLV W 80-73 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 46 @Utah St. L 69-78 22%    
  Tue, Mar 3 324 @Air Force W 72-60 87%    
  Sat, Mar 7 183 Fresno St. W 79-69 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 3.3 0.7 0.1 10.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.7 5.1 0.9 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.2 5.2 1.2 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.6 5.0 1.5 0.1 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.5 8.3 11.4 13.3 14.3 13.8 10.9 8.0 5.1 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 92.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 93.0% 1.1    0.8 0.2
16-4 66.7% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.8% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 83.8% 24.3% 59.5% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.6%
18-2 0.3% 51.0% 23.5% 27.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 36.0%
17-3 1.1% 39.8% 28.1% 11.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 16.3%
16-4 2.7% 21.6% 16.7% 5.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 6.0%
15-5 5.1% 14.4% 12.7% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 4.4 2.0%
14-6 8.0% 10.8% 10.2% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.1 0.6%
13-7 10.9% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 10.1 0.0%
12-8 13.8% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 11.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.0 0.0%
11-9 14.3% 3.7% 3.7% 11.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 13.8
10-10 13.3% 2.3% 2.3% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.0
9-11 11.4% 1.3% 1.3% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.2
8-12 8.3% 0.9% 0.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
7-13 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 5.4
6-14 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 5.5% 5.0% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 94.5 0.6%