Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#47
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#34
Pace66.5#268
Improvement+0.6#147

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#82
First Shot+2.5#104
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#91
Layup/Dunks-0.7#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#93
Freethrows+3.6#24
Improvement-0.6#231

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#22
First Shot+3.3#72
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#7
Layups/Dunks-0.6#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#59
Freethrows+3.2#22
Improvement+1.2#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 2.4% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 6.3% 8.7% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.0% 59.7% 42.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.3% 46.2% 29.1%
Average Seed 9.0 8.7 9.5
.500 or above 98.9% 99.6% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 96.9% 89.0%
Conference Champion 29.5% 37.0% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four9.4% 9.4% 9.3%
First Round48.2% 55.0% 37.4%
Second Round22.9% 27.2% 15.9%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 7.1% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.4% 1.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 61.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 33 - 4
Quad 26 - 39 - 8
Quad 39 - 118 - 9
Quad 45 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 84 Utah Valley W 101-77 76%     1 - 0 +27.8 +26.0 +0.3
  Tue, Nov 11 207 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-65 94%     2 - 0 +13.9 +4.7 +7.8
  Sat, Nov 15 174 Montana St. W 62-58 91%     3 - 0 +0.0 -5.2 +5.6
  Tue, Nov 18 100 Wichita St. W 62-59 81%     4 - 0 +4.9 -3.6 +8.8
  Mon, Nov 24 37 USC L 67-70 45%     4 - 1 +9.4 -0.1 +9.4
  Tue, Nov 25 29 North Carolina St. L 70-81 39%     4 - 2 +3.1 +2.2 +0.9
  Sat, Dec 6 54 @Butler W 77-68 43%     5 - 2 +22.0 +11.6 +10.8
  Wed, Dec 10 138 Duquesne W 86-64 88%     6 - 2 +20.5 +11.1 +9.2
  Sun, Dec 14 39 St. Mary's W 68-67 46%     7 - 2 +13.1 +4.1 +9.0
  Sat, Dec 20 98 @Nevada W 71-68 61%    
  Tue, Dec 30 71 New Mexico W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 52 @San Diego St. L 71-73 42%    
  Wed, Jan 7 91 Grand Canyon W 73-65 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 46 Utah St. W 73-70 60%    
  Tue, Jan 13 141 @UNLV W 78-71 74%    
  Fri, Jan 16 72 Colorado St. W 73-67 71%    
  Tue, Jan 20 97 @Wyoming W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 324 Air Force W 77-53 99%    
  Tue, Jan 27 188 @San Jose St. W 74-64 82%    
  Fri, Jan 30 91 @Grand Canyon W 70-68 59%    
  Tue, Feb 3 98 Nevada W 74-65 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 71 @New Mexico W 74-73 51%    
  Fri, Feb 13 141 UNLV W 81-68 87%    
  Wed, Feb 18 46 @Utah St. L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 188 San Jose St. W 77-61 92%    
  Tue, Feb 24 97 Wyoming W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 183 @Fresno St. W 77-67 81%    
  Tue, Mar 3 52 San Diego St. W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Mar 7 72 @Colorado St. W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.1 8.1 7.9 4.5 2.0 0.4 29.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.3 7.3 3.5 0.9 0.1 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 6.0 5.6 1.8 0.2 15.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.5 4.4 1.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.9 0.8 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.8 0.9 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.5 8.0 11.0 13.3 14.3 14.2 11.8 8.8 4.6 2.0 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
18-2 98.3% 4.5    4.3 0.3
17-3 89.3% 7.9    6.4 1.4 0.1
16-4 69.0% 8.1    4.8 2.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 36.1% 5.1    1.8 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.2% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.5% 29.5 19.9 7.3 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 58.5% 41.5% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.0% 99.3% 49.0% 50.3% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
18-2 4.6% 97.1% 42.4% 54.7% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.0%
17-3 8.8% 93.6% 38.3% 55.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.6 89.6%
16-4 11.8% 84.2% 32.2% 52.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.0 2.6 0.8 0.0 1.9 76.7%
15-5 14.2% 72.4% 27.8% 44.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 3.8 2.2 0.0 3.9 61.8%
14-6 14.3% 55.2% 21.7% 33.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 2.9 0.0 6.4 42.8%
13-7 13.3% 39.8% 17.6% 22.2% 10.5 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.9 0.1 8.0 27.0%
12-8 11.0% 23.2% 12.6% 10.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 0.1 8.4 12.1%
11-9 8.0% 14.7% 9.6% 5.1% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 6.8 5.7%
10-10 5.5% 9.7% 8.2% 1.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 5.0 1.6%
9-11 3.1% 4.9% 4.9% 11.3 0.1 0.0 3.0
8-12 1.7% 2.9% 2.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 53.0% 22.6% 30.4% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.3 6.6 9.6 13.5 12.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.0 39.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.8 11.1 25.0 41.7 18.1 2.8 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 17.4 13.0 30.4 34.8 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.4 5.0 5.0 10.0 30.0 30.0 20.0