San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.9 #41
Expected Predictive Rating +12.1 #48
Pace 69.7 #157
Improvement +3.6 #38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #78 B B- C C+ D
Defense #21 B+ B A- C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #207 1.36 #14 +3.2 #77
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #35 0.67 #304 +2.1 #77
Three Pointers 33% #330 1.20 #11 -0.9 #214
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #60 +4.4 #59
Freethrows 0.31 #154 76% #64 0.24 #117
Second Chance 32.8% #116 1.10 #99 0.36 #88
Turnovers 16.5% #178
Total Offense +4.2 #78

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #357 1.07 #76 +7.6 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #199 0.56 #3 +2.2 #33
Three Pointers 53% #5 0.94 #83 -4.0 #327
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #33 +5.7 #33
Freethrows 0.29 #168 74% #289 0.22 #190
Second Chance 26.6% #53 0.98 #89 0.26 #51
Turnovers 20.3% #20
Total Defense +7.7 #21

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #316 -1.3% #70
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.2% #32 -10.0% #36
Possession Length 16.1 #60 18.2 #306
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #100 0.12 #27
Improvement -0.4 #200 +4.0 #14

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 3.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.3% 64.7% 44.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.3% 52.5% 30.0%
Average Seed 9.8 9.4 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 54.1% 76.0% 42.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.4% 12.9% 13.7%
First Round44.8% 58.8% 37.6%
Second Round17.9% 25.9% 13.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.6% 5.6% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 5
Quad 27 - 39 - 8
Quad 37 - 116 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 251 Long Beach St. W 77 - 45 96% +13  1 - 0 +24 -1 D+ A+ F +25 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 228 Idaho St. W 73 - 57 95% +11  2 - 0 +9 +5 A+ F F +6 C B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 113 Troy L 107 - 108 2OT 86% -3  2 - 1 -1 +10 C+ A- F -10 B D- D
 Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54 - 94 12% -18  2 - 2 -15 -10 C F F -3 B+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 79 Oregon W 97 - 80 67% +10  3 - 2 +24 +27 A+ A+ F -3 D A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 48 Baylor L 81 - 91 53% -4  3 - 3 +1 +10 B+ D- B- -9 D- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 108 Utah Valley W 77 - 66 85% +6  4 - 3 +12 +5 C B+ C+ +6 B B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 205 Lamar W 89 - 71 94% +10  5 - 3 +12 +7 B- C C+ +3 C- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 347 Air Force W 81 - 58 99% +8  6 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +11 B A D -1 C+ D- B
 Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona L 45 - 68 13% -5  6 - 4 +1 -11 F D- A+ +9 A+ C+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 249 @San Jose St. W 81 - 68 90% +4  7 - 4 2 - 0 +11 +3 C+ A- D +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 58 Boise St. W 110 - 107 3OT 70% +6  8 - 4 3 - 0 +9 +11 A A- B- -3 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 74 @Nevada W 73 - 68 54% -2  9 - 4 4 - 0 +16 +11 C+ A+ D- +5 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 149 Fresno St. W 71 - 52 90% +15  10 - 4 5 - 0 +17 -4 F A+ B+ +19 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 116 @Wyoming W 74 - 57 71% +11  11 - 4 6 - 0 +23 +8 B D+ A- +16 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 43 New Mexico W 83 - 79 62% +3  12 - 4 7 - 0 +13 +8 A C- C +5 B+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 75 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 70 54% -2  12 - 5 7 - 1 +10 +5 D+ C+ A- +5 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 125 @UNLV W 82 - 71 74% +4  13 - 5 8 - 1 +16 +14 A+ F C- +3 D B+ B
 Wed, Jan 28 102 Colorado St. W 73 - 50 82% +10  14 - 5 9 - 1 +25 +9 A- B F +20 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 38 @Utah St. L 72 - 76 34%
 Tue, Feb 3 116 Wyoming W 79 - 67 87%
 Sat, Feb 7 347 @Air Force W 77 - 56 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 74 Nevada W 74 - 67 75%
 Tue, Feb 17 75 Grand Canyon W 73 - 66 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 102 @Colorado St. W 72 - 68 64%
 Wed, Feb 25 38 Utah St. W 75 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 43 @New Mexico L 73 - 76 38%
 Tue, Mar 3 58 @Boise St. L 70 - 71 49%
 Fri, Mar 6 125 UNLV W 82 - 69 88%
Totals 21 - 8 16 - 4 +12 +4 B B- C +8 B+ B A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 6.4 18.9 18.5 8.2 1.7 54.1 1st
2nd 0.2 4.5 13.8 6.2 0.5 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 7.5 3.0 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 1.9 0.1 5.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.1 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 6.4 14.4 23.3 25.2 19.0 8.2 1.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7
18-2 100.0% 8.2    8.1 0.1
17-3 97.3% 18.5    15.5 2.9 0.0
16-4 75.2% 18.9    8.9 8.6 1.4 0.0
15-5 27.7% 6.4    0.9 2.9 2.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 54.1% 54.1 35.2 14.5 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.7% 95.5% 39.5% 56.1% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.6%
18-2 8.2% 87.0% 32.1% 54.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.6 0.4 1.1 80.9%
17-3 19.0% 72.4% 27.8% 44.6% 9.6 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 5.3 3.0 0.0 5.2 61.8%
16-4 25.2% 55.9% 24.2% 31.7% 10.2 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.4 6.2 0.0 11.1 41.9%
15-5 23.3% 41.3% 20.6% 20.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 5.6 0.1 13.7 26.1%
14-6 14.4% 27.0% 14.2% 12.8% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 0.1 10.5 14.9%
13-7 6.4% 17.0% 11.4% 5.6% 10.9 0.2 0.9 0.1 5.3 6.3%
12-8 1.6% 9.0% 7.7% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.4%
11-9 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 51.3% 22.4% 28.9% 9.8 48.7 37.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 5.3 0.8 7.5 12.0 35.3 34.6 7.5 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 95.7% 7.3 18.6 41.4 24.3 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 92.5% 7.9 7.5 28.0 31.2 18.3 6.5 1.1